In the 2021 China market B-class car sales ranking, there are two unique.
The Tesla Model 3 is the only all-electric sedan on the list, selling 151,200 units in 2021. BYDHan is the only self-branded B-Class sedan on the list, selling 108,700 units last year.
In addition, the others are regulars in the B-class sales charts, with camry and Accord firmly ranking 1st and 2nd, with bmw 3 series, Mercedes-Benz C-class, Nissan Tianlai, Volkswagen Maiten/Passat and Audi A4L dividing up the remaining seats.
There is an old saying in the fuel vehicle market: those who get B-class cars win the world. 150,000-250,000 levels, the automotive market to choose the most diversified market segment, joint venture brands entrenched, independent brands want to attack, luxury brands want to explore.
Now, there is another force on the sidelines.
In 2021, new energy giants have become prophets, and the object of prediction is the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.
BYD King Chuanfu: 35% in 2025!
Zero-run car Zhu Jiangming: 2025, 40%!
Xiaopeng Automobile He Xiaopeng: 2025, 50%!
NIO Li Bin: 2030, 80%!
And the big guys dare to predict the confidence, from the 150,000-250,000 level market segment. According to the development law of the automobile market, the largest increment is in the middle part of the market, so the competition of the next stage of intelligent electric vehicle track will surely unfold in this market segment.
From chicken ribs to true fragrance
In the new energy vehicle consumer market, there has always been a particularly interesting law, especially cheap and particularly expensive to sell particularly well.
This sentence sounds like a compliment, but in fact, new energy vehicles are in a particularly embarrassing situation, which means that in the hinterland of the automobile consumer market, new energy products do not deserve to have names.
According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles and Dongxing Securities, from 2016 to 2020, A-class and B-class cars accounted for more than 80% of the passenger car class structure, which is the opposite of the "dumbbell" structure of pure electric vehicles.
From 2019 to 2021, from January to May, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles accounted for less than 100,000 yuan, 200,000-300,000 yuan and more than 300,000 yuan, and the market share increased significantly, while the market share of 100,000-200,000 yuan decreased year by year from nearly 60% in 2019, and the "dumbbell" structure was prominent.
By the first half of 2021, this trend will continue further, with sales of electric vehicles below 100,000 accounting for more than 40%, continuing to squeeze the 100,000-200,000 yuan electric vehicle market. With the tesla Model Y, BMW iX3 and other high-end products began to be delivered, the proportion of more than 300,000 electric vehicles has also increased.
Why is the market share of 100,000-200,000 electric vehicles decreasing?
Before answering this question, let's answer another question, why is this part of the market share high before 2019?
In fact, the reason is very simple. One is subsidies, and the other is B-end demand, of which the latter dominates.
For example, GAC Aeon sold 123,000 units in 2021, but the main contributor to sales was AION S, which sold 69,219 units in 2021, accounting for 56.3% of EIAN's total sales. However, the main seller of AION S is the ride-hailing and taxi market, which has always accounted for 60%-70% of the total sales of AION S in the past.
Since 2020, with the gradual decline of new energy subsidies, it is difficult for 100,000-200,000 yuan of pure electric vehicles to compete with fuel vehicles at the same price in terms of cost performance. Electric vehicles of 200,000-300,000 or more benefit from higher cost space, and can be equalized or overtaken by fuel vehicles at the same price by installing high-end configurations, improving services, and giving higher brand value.
Pure electric vehicles within 100,000 yuan due to the same price of fuel vehicles less competitors, while users for the price of the model product force requirements are also low, within 100,000 electric vehicles are more likely to make a high cost performance, Hongguang MINI EV, Chery QQ ice cream / small ants, BYD dolphin, Changan Ben E-Star are on the sales list in March this year.
Therefore, in the case of limited cost, the introduction of a product force balance, enough to compete with the same level of fuel vehicles, and positioned at 150,000-250,000 yuan pure electric vehicles have higher difficulty.
This is a manifestation of the return of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles to normal competition after the subsidy gradually declined.
Dongxing Securities pointed out in a survey report last year that the scale electrification of the 100,000-200,000 electric vehicle market means the arrival of the wave of full electrification of automobiles, and this part of the market will continue to be the largest market segment in the future.
With the pure electric platform, the popularization of intelligence, and the gradual emergence of the scale effect of electric vehicles, mainstream car companies will launch 100,000-200,000 yuan of more product-powered electric vehicles to compete with the same level of fuel vehicles to achieve the full electrification of the car.
The advantages of electric vehicles and the embarrassment of fuel vehicles
150,000-250,000 levels, the automobile market to choose the most diversified market segment, choose more, but also let the owners of this segment of the market is particularly picky, technology, interior, space, driving experience, than the top can not be insufficient, than the bottom is rich and surplus, each point they can list the most needs.
For car manufacturers, the 200,000-level electric vehicle market not only tests the cost control ability, but also tests the technical strength, and tests whether the product definition really impresses the user's heart.
Taking Volkswagen as an example, it has landed the sales king ID.3 in the European market in the Chinese market, but it is obviously not interested in Chinese users. Xiaopeng, which has consolidated the status of the new car brand, is actually a previous generation of products in this range.
But in fact, the three good students such as new energy are also overtaking in the corner.
On the one hand, the product competitiveness of fuel vehicles began to become weak. In March this year, Toyota Camry, the number one B-class car salesman, sold a total of 27,200 units, not because of how much product improvement there was, but because of the rise in both new energy vehicles and oil prices.
Moreover, to a great extent, the technical conditions of fuel vehicles constrain the design language, especially at the level of 200,000, because of the cost limit, it is impossible to give large-scale design resources tilt, and it is impossible to tolerate complex designs that will cause a lot of trouble at the manufacturing end.
Therefore, in terms of design, in recent years, there have been few breakthroughs in fuel vehicle products in the mainstream price range, and matryoshka dolls, face changes, and playing with lights have become the mainstream playing methods.
On the other hand, after the new energy has completed the low-end and high-end markets, it has also begun to gradually make up for the lessons left behind in the middle end.
The first is to basically solve the 200,000-level endurance anxiety.
The accepted threshold for lifting battery life anxiety is NEDC 500KM, beyond which battery life anxiety is no longer the primary concern of consumers. With the advancement of battery technology, and most car companies have begun to use specialized electric platforms, the installation efficiency of batteries is higher, and new energy products in the price range of 100,000-200,000, and endurance across the anxiety threshold have become the norm.
According to the statistics of the Autohome model library, there are 13 pure electric vehicles in the price range of 80,000-150,000 KM, and 94 models with a range of more than 500 KM in the price range of 150,000-200,000 KM. For example, the Xiaopeng G3i, which costs 168,900 yuan, has a paper endurance of 520KM.
Secondly, it is a breakthrough in the design capabilities of electric vehicles.
Compared with the compromise design of oil to electricity, new energy products under the pure electric platform can not only innovate for market segments in appearance, but also specially optimize for internal space. In recent years, there have also been some attractive designs on the market, such as euler cats for women, BYD dolphins and so on.
Pure electric platform in the internal space design compared to oil to electricity or fuel vehicles also have advantages, after all, the battery flat laying, smaller three-in-one power system, from the architecture design on the scattered arrangement of processors and wires, so that electric vehicles have a nearly perfect internal space layout conditions.
For example, GAC Aeon's AION Y, an A-class car with an A-class car's overall size and a wheelbase of 2750mm, gives AION Y a nearly two levels of space experience that surpasses its peer-level fuel vehicles.
A new war is on the verge of breaking out
From the perspective of new energy vehicle sales, models positioned in the high-priced market are ultimately niche markets. Look at Tesla to know that after localization, the Model 3 once dropped to 240,000, and when the production capacity of the new forces was still climbing, it stabbed in the back.
Nowadays, it is an indisputable fact that the industry's production capacity has shifted to the low-price market, and it is only a matter of time before the existing "spindle" sales structure of the fuel vehicle market appears in the new energy market.
According to the sales data released by the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee, only the average price of Han EV in the 7 models listed by BYD in January and March this year exceeded 250,000, and the price range of the rest of Song New Energy and Qin Plus was 100,000-250,000. Taking BYD Qin as an example, it sold 187,000 vehicles in 2021, an increase of 256.3% year-on-year.
GAC Aean is also basically similar, very early on the card position of 150,000-250,000 yuan market. GAC Aeon's models on sale include AION S, AION Y, AION V and AION LX, and the official guidance price of the remaining main models except AION LX does not exceed 250,000 yuan.
While sales are rising, the proportion of non-operating, that is, C-end, is also increasing. In November and December 2021, GAC Aean had 14,755 and 17,088 vehicles, respectively, of which the C-end accounted for 65.5% and 72.2%.
In addition to BYD and GAC, less than 250,000 model manufacturers also include new car-making forces such as Nezha and Xiaopeng. Among them, the low-end route is mainly cost-effective Nezha, in the sale of several models, Nezha U, Nezha V and Nezha N01, the guidance price is 10.28-17.98 million yuan, 6.29-1208 million yuan and 6.68-13.98 million yuan, relying on the sinking market delivery volume soared.
In March 2022, the official price of 14.98-18.78 million yuan G3, 21.99-40.99 million yuan P5, P5, 15.79-2239,900 yuan, delivered 1833, 9183 and 4398 vehicles, accounting for 12%, 60% and 29% respectively, is still supporting the delivery of models below 250,000 yuan.
It is precisely because of this development trend that the ideal car with better profitability in "Wei Xiaoli" is now also ready to lay out models priced at 150,000-250,000 yuan, and it is rumored that Xiaomi's first model is also priced in the range of 150,000-200,000.
End
China's auto consumer market is "spindle-shaped", with the largest user base in the 100,000-200,000 price range. For commodities such as automobiles, grasping the largest population base is also grasping the largest consumer demand.
Originally in the new energy market of 100,000-200,000, GAC Aian is very moist, Aion S, Y and V prices are concentrated in the 100,000-200,000 market, since 2020, Aion is in a leading position in this segment.
With the strong entry of Xiaopeng, Nezha, BYD and other car companies, in the foreseeable period of time, the competition and game of 100,000-200,000 markets will become more intense, not only new energy vehicle companies, but also a direct collision between new energy and fuel vehicles.
Resources:
[1] What is the strength of GAC Aeon's electric vehicles? Dongxing Securities
[2] The charm of electric vehicles is still low-priced Baker Street Detective Officer
[3] The bayonet is red! New energy vehicles into the hinterland of 10-20 million fuel vehicles battle electric state
[4] Mixed reform half a year valuation of 39 billion, Guangzhou ran out of this unicorn blood electric car? Bohu Finance