"In the next 3-5 years, 80% of Chinese fuel vehicle brands will be shut down and turned"
At the just-concluded 8th China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum (2022), Zhu Huarong, secretary of the party committee and chairman of Changan Automobile, expressed a series of his views on the prospects of traditional fuel vehicles, which attracted widespread attention from everyone.
In fact, such as "singing the decline of fuel vehicles, calling new energy" voices, we have heard countless times, before by BYD head Wang Chuanfu, and then there is Weilai Li Bin, such remarks are often controversial because of lack of factual basis and too radical. However, this time, "Zhu Huarong's" point of view is reasonable and grounded, which is thought-provoking.
At the meeting, Zhu Huarong pointed out that with the continuous expansion of new energy vehicle sales, China's fuel vehicle market competition will become more and more fierce, and in the next five years, 80% of China's fuel vehicle brands will enter the stage of closure, suspension, merger and transformation.
Looking back at last year's domestic traditional fuel vehicle market, a total of 9 brands died in the competition, and there are currently 86 remaining fuel vehicle brands, of which 34 brands have monthly sales of less than 1,000 units, and the overall trend of market shrinkage is obvious.
Among them, there are many factors such as policies and markets. Since 2009, the state has launched the "Ten Cities and Thousand Vehicles" project, through subsidies, the establishment of new energy vehicle promotion pilots in some areas, and in 2015 the scope was expanded to the whole country.
According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of 2019, the cumulative liquidation amount of central subsidies for new energy vehicles exceeded 100 billion yuan, and after a long period of policy support, the new energy vehicle market has been vigorously developed, and then the state has also successively reduced new energy subsidies, and plans to completely decline at the end of this year.
So far, the growth of the new energy vehicle market has changed from policy-oriented to market-oriented. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland will be 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units, respectively, with an increase of more than 1.6 times, and its market penetration rate will reach 13.77%, with great development potential in the next decade.
According to the latest market survey results, Chinese consumers' confidence in new energy vehicles is also increasing day by day, and the proportion of people who are willing to buy is close to 50%, and this scale will be expanded with the improvement of charging infrastructure.
Of course, there are still many problems to be solved in the new energy market, such as imperfect charging facilities, unreliable safety of new energy vehicles, unbalanced industrial development, and excessive dependence on foreign brands for chips.
In this regard, Zhu Huarong also gave his own suggestions.
On the one hand, he called for accelerating the construction of new energy infrastructure, solving the charging problem of old communities, accelerating the construction of charging pile system facilities and the improvement of power exchange systems, and achieving balanced distribution and efficient utilization of charging piles and power stations.
On the other hand, he suggested that the government strengthen guidance to enhance the mining and purification capabilities of domestic enterprises for core resources, especially raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and other power battery raw materials, and at the same time improve the management system of power battery recycling to reduce pollution and save resources. Finally, he also suggested that major enterprises should actively innovate and develop new battery technologies to improve charging efficiency and battery safety.
In general, the problems he pointed out and the solutions proposed are in line with the current situation and objective laws of the industry.
Therefore, although "Zhu Huarong" is pessimistic about the "prospects of traditional fuel companies" this time, it is indeed convincing. As the head of a traditional car company, he has a sharp and thorough point of view, and does not shy away from the transformation difficulties faced by Changan Automobile, which can give a lot of inspiration to the traditional car companies in China, which is fundamentally different from the behavior of some new energy manufacturers in order to gain eyeballs and earn traffic.
Of course, a series of issues related to the development of the new energy vehicle market and the future survival prospects of fuel vehicle companies are certainly much more complicated than what everyone discussed at the meeting.
But in fact, it can be summed up in one sentence, that is, no matter how fierce the competition in the future will become, the truth of survival of the fittest will never change.
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