The auto proposals in the two sessions have been basically clear, and the helmsmen of a number of car companies and auto-related businesses have given their own suggestions for the next development of China's automobiles, which are followed by 3 major areas: the development of carbon-neutral new energy vehicles and three electric capabilities, the autonomous controllability of key components such as chips, and the thinking of how to establish intelligent unified standards + drive in the next step.
Each large category can be related to each category, and there are an infinite number of future ideas and answers. Obviously, the proposed car companies and enterprises have begun to promote according to their own routes, including Geely Automobile's power exchange/clean energy vehicles, SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motors' thinking on chips and vehicle regulations, and car companies' thinking on intelligence, raw materials and key components.
The direction is determined, integrating innovation-driven, strengthening the real economy, improving the ecology, green and low-carbon, expanding domestic demand, and opening up to the outside world at a high level. Of course, frozen three feet, not a day's cold, in addition to paying attention to the future, in the current 2022, how to do car companies, but also the foundation of the future.
Market side, entry-level calm, A-level entanglement
In the work report on March 5, it was proposed that "the overall work should adhere to the steady word, steady progress", the tone of restraint and calmness, and in the report, there are also words that are too tight, pointing to the thinking of spending money on the blade. This also puts forward new requirements and goals for automobiles in the pillar industries of the economy.
Regarding stability, there are several major issues in the current automotive market:
Reasonable coverage of the new energy vehicle market: under the continuous development of electric vehicles, the expansion of the entry market, and the strength of the A-class core consumer market;
Optimization and adjustment of supply chain: key components and core raw materials, stable upstream and downstream supply, sustainable development, independent and controllable;
Steady progress in the market force: under the double cycle, the common progress and growth of the Chinese market and overseas markets;
Regarding the coverage of the new energy vehicle market, the current situation is that the entry-level market and the consumption upgrade market are of a good scale, the largest core consumer market (A-level) market in the middle has a huge capacity, and the entry-level market faces the topic of full competition and increment.
In the entry-level market, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV won sales figures of 127,700 units and 426,000 units in 2020 and 2021 respectively, and a number of car companies have joined under the inspiration of new market segments and business model innovation. At present, there have been a series of models with better sales such as Wuling Hongguang MNI EV, Chery QQ Ice Cream, Changan Ben E-Star, Reading Mango, etc., but as the market competition is further sufficient, the traditional model related to price and profit has also encountered new challenges. For example, the market access threshold of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV is high (for secondary dealers and auto retailers), and the vehicle supply rationing and vehicle price are deeply controlled by SAIC-GM-Wuling. This leaves the market recruits living space, competitive space, at this stage Wuling Hongguang MINI EV price range in the 288-486,600 yuan, and most of the competitive models in the terminal by letting the profit of 2-3 thousand or price difference, this range is further explored.
This means that the sustainability of the entry-level electric vehicle market, which is already marginally small and compressed by the rising cost of battery raw materials, is being challenged. Under the market competition, who is a short-lived car company is deeply linked to overcapacity and protecting the interests of consumers. In fact, the development process of the automobile market in the past hundred years has repeatedly appeared in the cycle of "emerging from the wind outlet and rushing into a place of chicken feathers", and for the inferior market that is already missing profits, some price wars and technical levels should be supervised and promoted.
In addition, the market capacity of A-class new energy vehicles needs to be further expanded, and now a series of car companies have been laid out and achieved good results, such as BYD Qin PLUS DM-i relying on the advantages of oil and electricity price / blade battery / intelligent performance, etc., in terms of sales directly into the hinterland of traditional fuel vehicles such as Langyi, Sagitar, Xuanyi, etc., and sales in January 2022 also exceeded 25,000 units. The enlightenment brought to this market is that it is necessary to refine its own technology and complete the price exploration in order to carry out competition. However, in a short period of time, the variables of the A-class sedan /SUV market will not be very large, because the depth of exploration of the joint venture brand, consumer cognition, technical correspondence, etc. have reserves, such as the three major Japanese oil-electric hybrid & electrification models have basically achieved the same price of oil and electricity, although Volkswagen has determined not to carry out the research and development of the next generation of internal combustion engine technology, the current EA211 EVO is about to be put into use, combined with terminal preferences and cost control capabilities, the market share is still at a high level for a long time.
In contrast to the current market situation, there are some slightly "anxious" cases in the current new energy A-class sedan + SUV market. For example, in the market competition of 100,000-200,000 yuan, some models take the lead in grabbing the share of smart + electric, there is excessive marketing, low access standards for suppliers (in line with the national standard), etc., and the final landing point is that consumers have obvious contrast cognition after purchasing a car, as well as battery safety/stability and other related.
Refer to the relevant pricing and product strength formulation of benchmarking enterprises, in fact, you can better complete the screening of this. For example, the BYD e3.0 platform, which reduces vehicle cost and endurance through high integration, is priced at 141,800 yuan on the 500 km + endurance A-class entry SUV, and 174,800 yuan for the 500 km + endurance entry SUV. The Volkswagen ID.series pricing that is being transformed can also show the status quo to a certain extent, and the entry price of the ID.4 series 500 km + endurance version model is more than 219,000 yuan, and with the application of standardized batteries in the future, there can be a certain amount of room for exploration. Judging from the products of the 2 head car companies with better electrification performance, many models of the same data level in the market are priced at 120,000-140,000 yuan, and corresponding trade-offs are made.
In summary, combined with today's new energy vehicle promotion and penetration trend, and limited by the continuous reduction of cost, profit, double integral price, etc., for car companies without capital support, ensuring the interests of consumers and achieving steady progress in the development of enterprises is obviously more important than quickly seizing market share and subsequent peripheral events.
Overseas markets, raw materials, chips can not be urgent and can not be urgent
In addition, we need to pay attention to the current situation related to upstream and downstream supply and price and global layout.
In recent years, the global pattern has been changing, the chip famine that occurred in 2020 has not ended, the chip industry has not yet returned to a high level after 2 years of adjustment (epidemic state), in the AFS forecast, the global automotive industry in 2022 is expected to be better than 2021, but it is still expected that there will be about 830,000 production losses.
And with the occurrence of the Russian-Ukrainian incident, more solutions are needed for the necessary materials for chip manufacturing. In addition, the supply of core raw materials for power batteries has also begun to be more challenged, starting from March 2021, the price of lithium carbonate has risen from more than 30,000 yuan / ton, and has increased by about 10 times so far, with a price of nearly 350,000 yuan / ton. Coupled with the further decline of subsidies, the collective price increase of new energy vehicles caused by the price increase of raw materials began.
Relatively speaking, the control of the supply chain of parts, upstream and downstream, and raw materials is not in the hands of a single or several enterprises, involving the whole process from mining to refining, to design-manufacturing-verification, and no one can complete the control of the whole chain, which can be seen from the Us/Europe chip bill. Can't be in a hurry, that's why. From 2020 to 2021, global battery manufacturers have begun to compete for lithium resources, but it is not conducive to the reduction or stabilization of related prices, and the next way out will lie in exploration, new extraction methods (European start-up solutions for extracting from river water), alternative products (sodium-ion batteries, aluminum-ion batteries, etc.).
As for chips, it is another topic, related to secret progress, seeking Chinese alternatives, circumventing restrictive behavior, etc.
In addition, it is the topic of going to sea. Up to now, whether it is a traditional fuel vehicle or a new energy vehicle, Chinese brands have made a lot of new attempts, in view of the rapid progress of Chinese car companies in cost control capabilities, intelligent configuration performance, electrification capabilities, electrification models, etc., the current new round of going to sea momentum is very good, but also pay attention to the way and rhythm.
At the beginning of 2022, with the official announcement of 2 new forces entering the Nordic new energy vehicle market, the automotive public opinion circle was once focusing on "So many Chinese cars go to sea, nordic consumers are enough." With the gradual release of European car sales in January and February 2022, what you and I see is that it has not quickly become a hit, and it takes more time to accumulate and test. Behind this, it is also related to the consumption concept of European users and the technical route of Chinese car companies. In the survey of relevant institutions, several core measurement keywords of European car owners include: the brand/model has passed a long market test, the quality control is stable, and the price is low. The intelligent advantages of Chinese cars have not yet been well reflected in front of us, because the intelligent scenes in overseas markets have a big gap with the mainland. Going out without cash/bank cards and only taking your mobile phone to complete payment is a shallow embodiment of this case. Deep, is the intelligent service field, mostly 1-2 oligarchies exist, such as map market, video service market, voice control market, online music market and so on. In addition, China's new forces from the initial stage of development of the goal is to stand firm in the Chinese market and then complete the sea, but also because of this intelligent network / driving into Europe and the United States need to be certified and adjusted in compliance, privacy and other aspects. Exerting intelligent capabilities in overseas markets is either to spend money on their own or to promote cooperation between countries, and cannot be rushed, especially when encountering Europe's strict Internet privacy red line.
Write at the end:
Although there are many challenges and the pressure of competition is not small, we should have confidence in the future of Chinese automobiles. Looking back at the latest round of technological progress, it is the pure electric vehicle type Chinese car companies that have won the technical high point, including BYD's three-electric capability, the battery technology, cost, and production capacity of the Ningde era, Weilai's battery for power exchange/solid-state technology, and the exploration of fast charging/hybrid/plug-in hybrid/extended range hybrid by a number of Chinese car companies, which have jointly created a situation in which from 2014 to the present, they have the advantages.
The next market battle will be very fierce, steady in this main line, the enterprises that rush too fiercely should collect, and the enterprises that have not yet rushed up should accelerate.