22/03/07
Lead
The number of autonomous models makes people have the illusion that this is as if it is a domestic new energy list.
Author 丨 Kang Qin
Responsible editor 丨 Du Yuxin
Edit 丨 Chic
Due to the increasingly stringent emission standards and the vigorous implementation of subsidy policies, coupled with the continuous improvement of consumer acceptance of electric vehicles, the global new energy passenger car market will grow by leaps and bounds in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of more than 100%, and sales will cross the 6 million mark for the first time.
Entering 2022, this segment will continue to maintain rapid growth. Relevant data show that despite the covid-19 epidemic and chip shortages, global new energy passenger car sales in January 2022 increased by 87% year-on-year to 603,007 units, and its share in the global passenger car market also increased to 10%, exceeding 9% of last year's total. This means that perhaps the proportion of new energy in passenger cars this year may reach about 15%, continuing to be the strongest driving force for the latter's growth.
Specifically, January was able to achieve such an excellent performance mainly because of the huge help provided by the Chinese market.
As we all know, the rapid development of the global new energy market in the past two years is mainly due to the joint efforts of The two major markets of China and Europe, and the sum of the two shares in the overall situation is basically more than 80%, of which the former is stable at about 50%. In January this year, with a record 372,615 vehicles, China's market share hit a record high of 61.79%.
At the same time, the share of the European market fell to its lowest point since 2020. This situation will occur, mainly due to the fact that in order not to pay huge fines, to meet the requirements of the EU in 2021, the average carbon dioxide emissions of new cars must not be higher than 95g/km, and in December last year, European car companies actively "impulsed", in advance, some new energy vehicles were licensed, and then directly sold to consumers in the future. This led to a significant decrease in sales in the European market in January this year.
Therefore, in January' model and brand lists, we can see more "figures" from China.
1
Autonomous models almost monopolize the best-selling list
Before analyzing the list, let's first introduce that we have been making a global new energy list, and we are accustomed to bolding the independent models and independent brands in the two lists to make a better distinction. Therefore, when compiling the list in January this year, I was surprised to find that only 3 cars were not autonomous models, which gave people the illusion that this seemed to be a domestic new energy list.
The reason why it is so shocking is that in January 2020, only three autonomous models of GAC Aion S, MG ZS EV and Besturn B30 EV were on the list, and in the same period of 2021, it was only increased to 9 models, and this year it directly increased to 17 models, which is almost equivalent to doubling.
In fact, the other three models that make the list are also closely related to China, such as 16,411 Tesla Model Y from the Chinese market, and 6,294 ID.4s. In other words, without the support of Chinese consumers, the former will not be able to win the championship title, and the latter will be even less compatible with the list.
Back to the list in January, the top three are Model Y, Wuling Hongguang MINIEV and BYD Qin Plus PHEV.
According to recent performance, as the Model Y continues to land in more markets and the production of Tesla's Berlin Gigafactory in Germany, the possibility of Model Y replacing the Model 3 as Tesla's dominant flower is increasing, and even become a reality as soon as March.
And the Hongguang MINIEV, which still seems to have a large advantage, is actually full of dangers.
On the one hand, because the competitors represented by Chery QQ Ice Cream have robbed many potential consumers, so that in January, Hongguang MINIEV fell for the first time year-on-year, a decline of 27.4%, while QQ ice cream was close to 10,000 units; on the other hand, because BYD Qin Plus PHEV once again refreshed its own highest record, and the probability will rise in the future. With one drop and one liter, the gap between the two will continue to narrow, and one day the latter may replace Hongguang MINIEV as the runner-up.
In fact, not only Qin Plus PHEV, but soon Song Pro/Plus PHEV may also participate in the competition for the top three in the single-month list, after all, BYD's sales target this year is 1.2 million vehicles, as its blockbuster models Qin Plus PHEV and Song Pro/Plus PHEV will inevitably have to deliver higher sales.
Therefore, in order to break the encirclement of BYD Qin and Song and keep the honor of the top three, Hongguang MINIEV can no longer continue to be satisfied with the domestic market, and needs to cross the country to the overseas market as soon as possible and seek more consumers' favor.
Compared with Hongguang MINIEV, the Pressure felt by the Volkswagen ID.4 is more intense, because the models behind it are from Chinese car companies, and the gap between it and BYD Dolphin, BYD Han EV and Chery QQ Ice Cream is not large, especially the Dolphin is only 33 vehicles behind. This makes one wonder if the dolphins will be ahead of volkswagen ID.4 in February.
In the second half of the list, BYD continued to occupy three seats, of which Tang PHEV once again refreshed its own new high. In fact, not only Tang PHEV, But also Changan Benben EV, Chery eQ1 (that is, domestic small ants) and GAC Aion Y also achieved the best results in history. It is also worth mentioning that GAC Aion Y is on the list for the first time, relying on the vast South China market, it should also become a "familiar face" in the list in the future.
As mentioned above, the "disappearance" of Models such as Renault Zoe and Nissan Leaf, which mainly rely on the European market in January, is more affected by the shortage of chips and the impulse at the end of the previous year, and considering the emergence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the strange phenomenon of almost monopolizing the global model list in the short term may continue to appear, but it should not exist for a long time.
2
Tesla will still be the only one
Judging from the brand list, thanks to the increase in production capacity and the continuous increase of products, BYD won the championship again in January, and this time it is of great significance.
China's new energy passenger car sales fell 25.9% month-on-month in January, but BYD's sales, which mainly rely on the local market, were basically the same as the new high of 93,293 units set in December last year, indicating that its rapid development at this stage has exceeded the overall trend of China's new energy market.
But even the menacing BYD may still be unable to compete with Tesla for three reasons.
First of all, based on the data of the third and fourth quarters of 2021, although BYD can create a certain advantage in the non-quarter-end month, only the first month can open a large gap, the second month's advantage will be significantly reduced or even basically equalized, and its sales in the third month are almost equivalent to half of Tesla's, completely crushed by the latter. Tesla's 51,302 units in January set a high at the beginning of the quarter, which means that in March it will once again set a new high of its own, and it will not be difficult to regain the top spot.
Secondly, the continued rise in sales of original models and the increasing number of new models, coupled with the increase in exports, will indeed make BYD have a significant increase this year. Although Tesla will not launch a new car this year, the Model Y will open more large-scale deliveries in overseas markets, and the official production of the Berlin factory in Germany will also make the sales of the car in the European market no longer limited by transportation, and sales will also increase significantly.
Finally, BYD's sales target in 2022 is to double to 1.2 million units (more than 90% of which are currently from new energy vehicles), tesla is 1.5 million, and there is a gap of 300,000 vehicles between the two, making it very difficult to counterattack.
Back to the entire brand list, in January, independent models performed well, and independent naturally dominated the global brand list, not only the number increased to 11, the ranking of SAIC, GAC and Changan was also greatly improved, and Nezha, the first echelon of new forces, was also listed for the first time.
When volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and Hyundai and other brands that mainly rely on the European market have significantly reduced sales, and their own brands with their backs to the Chinese market have been able to continue to maintain a high level or even set a new high, the ranking of some brands has risen, of which SAIC has jumped directly from 12th to 6th, GAC has also advanced from 15th to 10th, and Changan has directly moved from 20th to 13th.
As one of the representatives of China's new car-making forces, Nezha is also under the joint efforts of Nezha V and Nezha U, especially the former has a lot of sales after the launch of the 2022 model, so in January the brand received the highest monthly performance of 11,010 vehicles in recent years, and was able to enter the list for the first time.
Of course, there are also some independent brands that have declined in the rankings, such as the Great Wall and Dongfeng. Among them, the Great Wall fell directly from 8th in December last year to 15th. Behind this drop is the reduction in production of the white cat and black cat under the Great Wall new energy sub-brand Euler.
At the end of February, Dong Yudong, CEO of the Great Wall Motor Euler brand, said that due to the shortage of chips and the rise in battery prices, the cost of Euler white cats and black cats has increased, and there will be a lot of losses for each one produced. Therefore, the company decided to "stop taking orders" for these two models, and may not continue to be delivered in the second half of 2022. That being the case, the reduction in sales of Great Wall New Energy in January is also reasonable, but in this way, in the next few months, it may only be at the bottom of the list, or even directly fall out of the list.
Conchen
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