Introduction: Since the outbreak of the new energy vehicle market last year, many analysts and industry insiders have given the inference that the electric vehicle market has evolved from "spindle- to "olive-shaped". But from a market perspective, no one can accurately predict the real node of this change, and the best basis for proving this inference is the change in sales.
(Text/Zhang Jiadong Editor/Lou Bing) In 2021, the rapid progress of Nezha, Zero Run, and Weima in the sales side has allowed many manufacturers to see the potential of the domestic electric vehicle market, but overall, the annual delivery volume stands on the 90,000 mark, and throws away the "Wei Xiaoli" of more than 20,000 Nezha Cars, which ranks fourth, and still firmly grasps the entry threshold of the first-line echelon.
However, there is not much time left for the celebration of "three fools in building a car". When the time came to 2022, the originally stable "Wei Xiaoli" Group was quickly challenged by the second echelon. In the two months that have announced the delivery volume in January and February, Nezha Automobile has continuously surpassed Weilai and Xiaopeng Automobile to the second place in the delivery list, and quickly opened up the gap with the two behind it.
Although affected by the suspension of factories during the Spring Festival holiday in February, the absolute number of new cars delivered by various car companies has declined significantly compared with the previous month, but from the perspective of the market change trend in the past two months, the new car-making forces in the market to maintain a year-on-year follow-up of the growth rate of the new energy market, the pattern that once relied on high-end to open up the market is undergoing rapid changes.
High-end is no longer the only solution
According to data from the Association, the new energy market sold a total of 352,000 units in February, an increase of 135.7% year-on-year. Among the new car companies that have announced sales figures, Weilai's 9.9% year-on-year growth rate in the main high-end market has been seriously lagged behind compared with the overall market; The sales composition of Xiaopeng, which is mainly high-end products, has also shown signs of slowing down compared with last year.
In response to the sales performance in February, Weilai and Xiaopeng gave their respective explanations. Xiaopeng Automobile said that the decline in February deliveries was mainly due to the technical transformation of the Xiaopeng Zhaoqing base during the spring festival shutdown period from the end of January to the beginning of February 2022. Weilai Automobile said that Weilai's sales were mainly due to the "Spring Festival holiday factory shutdown", and in February, it also produced ET7 prototypes, exhibition cars and test drives.
Both also propose that when the subsequent production capacity is stabilized, the possibility of increasing sales of existing orders will be gradually released. As the ideal car with the best delivery volume in February, although sales remain at a high level, according to the 2021 performance financial report released by ideal at the end of February, it is expected that the delivery of new cars in the first quarter of 2022 will be 30,000-32,000 units, an increase of 138.5% -154.4% over 2021.
In contrast, from 2020, we will focus on Nezha and zero-run cars in the low-end market, and the increase between the two since 2022 is very obvious. Among them, the cumulative delivery volume of Nezha in the first two months increased by 332% year-on-year, and the zero-run car increased by 447% year-on-year in February.
From the perspective of sales volume changes, cost-effective advantages are gradually becoming the main factor affecting the new energy market.
A new pattern between the bottom and the top
Of course, the new forces that have survived after fierce competition are destined to have their own product logic and unique planning for future development paths. In order to seek perfection in the market, it may be better to stick to its own path and seek differentiation in the market to consolidate its own territory.
However, it should be noted that with the increasingly fierce competition and the continuous enrichment of their product lines and the search for new breakthroughs in the market from the expansion stage of 1-10, the overlap of operating models under high-end is also becoming more and more serious.
When Qin Lihong, president of WEILAI Automobile, looks back at the pure electricity market of more than 300,000 yuan in 2021, Weilai delivers a total of 91,329 vehicles, accounting for 40.7% of the market share; when the ideal ONE sits on the throne of the first sales of medium and large SUVs of more than 300,000 yuan, the market segments that are not rich under the high-end are also being eroded by the tentacles of the continuously extended car companies.
NIO will release 3 models this year to continue to refine the market, while Ideal and Xiaopeng will point to the next new car, ideal X01 and Xiaopeng G9, respectively.
The mass market is seen as a better option at this stage. In 2021, Weilai founder Li Bin has repeatedly stressed that "NIO itself will not release too cheap models, but will enter the mass market through a new brand." ”
For new power brands such as Weilai and Xiaopeng, although there are many models on sale, the slow increase in sales scale in the short term is doomed to make it difficult to achieve further profitability through cost sharing, which is also the biggest problem that the two are still difficult to achieve profitability through vehicle sales in the financial report.
Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that exploring the mid-end market has become an important way for Weilai to strive for long-term growth. If NIO successfully launches a product that combines cost performance and technology, and extends from the high-end market to the mid-end market, the total delivery volume of NIO is expected to reach 500,000 vehicles in 2025.
In contrast, the sales counterattack of Nezha and Zero Run reflects the eclectic trend of the electrification market from the other side, from Nezha U and Zero Run S01, which initially positioned in the range of 150,000-200,000 yuan, to Nezha V and Zero Run T03, which are now the main force of brand sales within 100,000 yuan, both of which have experienced trial and error as market latecomers in the high-end market, and have since sunk to the success of the entry-level market.
However, after gaining a firm foothold, further exploring a larger market space has also become the common goal of this part of the car companies. Zero Run successfully promoted the average value of its own product system through the release of C11, and Nezha also made it clear that it will launch a new Nezha S model for the 200,000 yuan market this year.
From the dominance of the high-end market of the new forces to the first- and second-tier echelons moving towards the 150,000-250,000 yuan market, the polarization barriers of electric vehicle products built by the new forces are gradually being gradually broken by their own more desire for the market. The staggered market ranking also confirms consumers' desire for more diversified and unique mass products.
In 2021, it will set its sights on traditional car companies such as BYD, GAC E-An and Volkswagen with popular products, and achieve rapid growth in sales of its new energy products, and GAC Aeon's annual sales last year far exceeded that of "Wei Xiaoli" to reach 123,000 vehicles, and in February this year, E-On once again won the top place in the sales volume of new car manufacturers with a score of 8526 vehicles. Obviously, with the intervention of more and more traditional car companies that focus on the mass market, new energy products that are divided into two levels are facing great temptations and challenges in a broader market range.
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