The 4680 battery is constantly coming off the line. Recently, according to TESMANIAN, Tesla's Fremont, California factory has produced about 1 million 4680 batteries, and these batteries can produce more than 1,000 Model Y.
TESMANIAN also shared a production chart for January 22. The chart shows that the Fremont plant has a total of 14 4680 battery production lines, while the average yield rate has reached 92%. This means that Tesla has surpassed suppliers such as Panasonic, LG, and CATL and began to produce its own 4680 batteries.
From 2170 batteries to 4680 batteries, what technological innovations does Tesla have? How much can these innovations reduce the price of the Model Y? When will Chinese consumers be able to enjoy price changes? This article attempts to make some guesses about these hot issues.
What is 4680?
Unlike battery suppliers such as CATL and BYD, Tesla's 4680 electrodeless ear battery is a cylindrical battery. This kind of battery is similar to the common AA battery in life (AAA battery, AAA battery), but it is larger and has more charge.
Tesla usually names batteries after their specifications. For example, the 1865 battery is a cylinder battery with a diameter of 18mm and a height of 65mm, and the 2170 battery currently equipped on the Model Y is a cylindrical elevator with a diameter of 21mm and a height of 70mm. The 4680 battery, as the name suggests, is a cylindrical battery with a diameter of 21mm and a height of 80mm.
It can be seen that the development trend of cylindrical batteries is getting bigger and bigger, and the biggest benefit of getting bigger is that it can reduce manufacturing costs and improve production efficiency. It is not difficult to make the battery bigger, but the difficulty is to make the battery bigger while ensuring safety.
In the past, the production of cylindrical batteries was like an egg roll, which required a thin film composed of a positive electrode, a negative electrode, and a diaphragm to be rolled up, and then put a metal conductor in two stages, which is the polar ear. When the battery is operating, electrons flow from the positive ear to the negative ear or vice versa.
Conventional cylindrical batteries have only two polar ears, so electrons need to pass through the entire length of the film to charge and discharge. The thin film length of the 2170 battery is 80cm, and the film of the same texture is about 380cm to roll into a 4680 battery, which is 4-5 times that of the 2170 battery.
This means that the electrons need to travel longer distances to reach the polar ear and complete the charge and discharge process. Longer distances mean greater resistance, and greater resistance means that batteries are more likely to heat up, with the immediate result that safety is not guaranteed.
In this regard, Tesla's solution is "infinity ear", which can also be understood as "omnipolar ear". Through laser technology, a "cut hole" is made on the film so that the positive and negative electrodes are directly connected. In this case, it can be considered a "full polar ear", increasing the current path and shortening the pole ear spacing.
In the case that the battery has not made a breakthrough in chemistry, Tesla has effectively improved the endurance of the vehicle and reduced the manufacturing cost through technological innovation. Official data shows that the 4680 battery can increase the cruising range by 16%, reduce manufacturing costs by 14%, and increase the investment efficiency by 7%.
If you add battery technology innovations such as anode materials and cathode materials, Tesla believes that the 4680 battery can eventually increase the cruising range by 54%, reduce the manufacturing cost by 56%, and increase the investment efficiency by 69%.
How much cheaper can the Model Y be?
Advances in battery technology will disrupt the entire electric vehicle market. According to TESMANIAN, 4680 batteries made at the Fremont plant are being shipped to the Texas plant. Musk said in a conference call after the 2021 earnings report that the first batch of Model Y equipped with 4680 batteries will be delivered in Q1.
So what will happen to the Model Y with the 4680 battery? The first is the change in selling price. In Q4 2021, the average cost of a Tesla bicycle is $36,000. The proportion of its battery cost is calculated by 30%-40%, and taking into account the cost reduction brought by the 4680 battery, the cost reduction of the first model is about 1500-2000 US dollars.
If you add battery technology innovation such as anode material and cathode material, the cost reduction is about 6000-8000 US dollars. If you superimpose the structural battery pack, integrated die casting and other technologies, the final cost reduction of Model Y may be close to $10,000.
The second point is the increase in mileage. At present, the long range of the Model Y is 318 miles (about 512 kilometers), and if the range of the 4680 battery is increased by 16%, then the range of the Model Y long life will be increased to 590-600 kilometers.
The third point is the performance improvement. Compared to the 2170 battery, the power of the 4680 battery is increased by 6 times, thus laying the foundation for performance improvement. At present, the Model Y's long-term acceleration time of 100 km/h is 5.1 seconds, while the 100 km/h acceleration time of models equipped with 4680 batteries may be increased to between 4.5 and 5 seconds.
When will the 4680 Model Y come?
For the U.S. and European markets, the Model Y with the 4680 battery will arrive in the first quarter of this year. In addition to the Fremont plant, Tesla's battery supplier Panasonic will also begin trial production of the 4680 battery in April. "We plan to prioritize Tesla." Panasonic CFO Hirokazu Umeda said.
In contrast, in the Chinese market, the Model Y equipped with 4680 batteries may not arrive until the end of 2022 or 2023. At present, the battery supply of the Shanghai factory mainly comes from two parts, of which 1/3 is 2170 batteries, supplied by Panasonic and LG; 2/3 is lithium iron phosphate batteries, supplied by CATL.
However, the NINGDE era has not yet made it clear whether it will OEM 4680 batteries for Tesla. At an investor relations event on Feb. 14, CATL said it had "discussed various possible supply and cooperation options with U.S. customers," but did not disclose specific cooperation options.
Catalonia era mainly attacked ternary lithium batteries, Tesla from the 2170 battery to switch 4680 batteries, whether it will still hand over the order to the CATL era to do, and whether the CATL era is willing to become its battery foundry, all determine the speed of the introduction of 4680 battery Model Y into China.
Just when Ningde Times, Panasonic, LG and other manufacturers hesitate, Tesla has been eager to start the action. Recently, according to Reuters, Tesla has signed a five-year agreement with Australian lithium miner Liontown Resources to supply it with spodumene concentrate.
At the beginning of the Berlin factory, Tesla supported a battery factory with an annual output of 4680 batteries of more than 100 GWh. Over time, the annual production capacity may be increased to 200-250GWh, which can meet the needs of more than 3 million electric vehicles.
In a post-2021 earnings call, Musk revealed that "the location of the new plant will be released at the end of 2022." If the new factory eventually settles in China, will Tesla follow Berlin's example and provide it with a battery factory?