Introduction |
2022/01/13
Now that the "inflection point" has arrived, enjoy the brilliant bloom.
Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Cao Jiadong
Edit 丨 Chic
"There is no winter that cannot be overcome, and there is no spring that does not come."
At the beginning of the article, the first thing to draw the attention back to the Chinese new energy vehicle market two years ago, clearly remembering that at that time, because of the switch of subsidy decline and other related policies, since July 2019, the subdivision has experienced a year-on-year decline for many consecutive months.
And I, at the end-of-year inventory of that year, wrote such a paragraph: With the advent of the "post-subsidy" era, China's new energy industry has officially entered the stage of transformation and transformation, and the butterfly effect brought by "pain" will continue, and all car companies must seek a way of survival suitable for their own development in this sudden change in the market.
In contrast, throughout 2020, when the wave of electrification transformation intensifies and after a long period of dark moments, for the large number of people on this track, it can be called a year of "breaking the cocoon into a butterfly".
According to the annual sales data released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the cumulative wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.17 million units, an increase of 12% year-on-year, and retail sales reached 1.11 million units, an increase of 10% year-on-year. Everything seems to be moving in a good direction. However, with the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, it once again cast a shadow that cannot be ignored for the subsequent trend of the entire market.
Soon, with the passage of time, 2021 also came to an end in the hustle and bustle. When the final results came out, those so-called concerns seemed very redundant. The subsidy decline continues, and the extreme stress test of lack of core is intensifying, but it has been unable to stop the entire Chinese new energy market, and the greater qualitative change caused by the quantitative change.
Overnight, many participants, whose resilience to risks quickly strengthened, learned to dance in "shackles".
2021, 3 million vehicles, 15%, very gratifying
It is undeniable that when the traditional fuel vehicle market is still mourning for various reasons, the new energy market is getting better and better, and it is more dazzling. At the beginning of the year, not many people predicted that the trend of the entire market would climb so crazy.
Judging from the 2021 annual data just released by the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 505,000 units in December, an increase of 138.9% year-on-year and 17.8% month-on-month. From January to December, the wholesale number of new energy passenger vehicles was 3.312 million units, an increase of 181.0% year-on-year.
Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 475,000 units in December, up 128.8% y/y and 25.4% month-on-month. From January to December, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year.
At the same time, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger car manufacturers in December was 21.3%, and the penetration rate of January-December was 15.7%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. In December, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger cars reached a higher rate of 22.6%, and the penetration rate of 14.8% in January-December.
Obviously, as mentioned in the subheading of this paragraph, the retail sales data as a measure has basically reached the stage target of "a total of 3 million vehicles and a penetration rate of 15%." And this is undoubtedly very gratifying.
What's even more surprising is that throughout December, several car companies with excellent sales performance were: BYD 93,338 units, Tesla China 70,847 units, SAIC-GM-Wuling 60,372 units, Great Wall Motor 20,926 units, Chery Automobile 20,501 vehicles, Geely Automobile 16,831 units, Xiaopeng Automobile 16,000 units, SAIC Passenger Car 14,868 units, GAC Aean 14,500 units, Ideal Car 14,087 units, FAW-Volkswagen 11,213 vehicles, Nio Motors 10,489, Changan Automobile 10,404 and United Automobiles 10,127 vehicles.
There is no doubt that the dominance and discourse power have been firmly occupied by independent brands. The concept of "overtaking in curves", which once attracted criticism, is slowly landing and becoming a reality. With the help of the "pusher" of new energy, we have truly got rid of the monopoly of the long-term german and Japanese joint venture car companies, and achieved all-round anti-overtaking and counterattack.
And in 2021, as a bystander, we have also witnessed some "explosive" models, strongly entering the hinterland of traditional fuel vehicles and breaking their wrists.
With cumulative sales of 169,853 vehicles, Tesla Model Y ranks first in the 2021 high-end SUV retail sales list, surpassing the BMW X3, Audi Q5, and Mercedes-Benz GLC. In the 5th and 10th places, we also saw the figure of the ideal ONE and Nio ES6.
In December's car retail sales ranking, Wuling Hongguang MINIEV has a record of 50,561 units, also ranking first. Tesla Model 3 sold 30,102 units, ranking 5th, leaving behind competitors such as Camry, Accord, Tianlai, and Passat.
Therefore, I can't help but ask, those who still look down on pure electricity, look at the new energy doubters, the hot sales of the above several and more new energy vehicles, do they still think that it is only because of the so-called green card assistance and policy dividends?
Wake up, with the further upgrading of the terminal consumption structure, consumer cognition tends to be perfect, good is good, bad is bad, product power to fuel vehicles to achieve multi-dimensional transcendence, is an indisputable fact. So stop fooling yourself.
It is precisely for this reason that as a witness, we are increasingly looking forward to what kind of height China's new energy market will reach in 2022. Now that the "inflection point" has arrived, enjoy the brilliant bloom.
2022, 5 million vehicles, 20%, just done
In fact, at the beginning of this year, new energy vehicle stocks have experienced a period of sharp decline, which in turn has once again shrouded the entire market with a layer of pessimism. As for the reason, it is multi-dimensional.
First of all, the decline in new energy subsidies and the rise in premiums caused by the introduction of new energy exclusive insurance have become an indisputable fact, which in turn has led to the rise of consumer car purchase budgets and car costs.
Even if it will not have much impact on those users who really "just need", but put the sample capacity large enough, no one can guarantee that it will not impact the corresponding monthly sales and discourage some potential customers.
Secondly, the epidemic, chip shortage, and tight supply chain will most likely continue in 2022. And this has become a dilemma that all new energy vehicle companies must face together. Next, there is a high probability that there will be a situation of "abundant orders, but no cars to deliver", and the bottleneck of production capacity will also limit each company to achieve greater volume change.
In addition, it is also a point that everyone is easy to ignore, the fluctuation of the price of raw materials for power batteries. Just recently, from the news released by overseas media, because the supply of lithium and other raw materials can not meet the ever-expanding demand, the price of electric vehicle batteries will rise in 2022 after a sharp decline in 10 years.
Combined with various unfavorable factors, in order to maintain a considerable gross profit margin, car companies can only adjust the selling price of existing product series. As of now, Tesla and Xiaopeng have taken the lead in "official rise", and then the entire new energy vehicle market may also usher in a collective "price increase".
In the short term, the pain is bound to exist. However, the perspective is magnified, the timeline is elongated, whether it is for the main engine factory or the terminal, the method is far more than the difficulty. To be sure, 2022 will still be a milestone year predicted only from the data dimension.
"The significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is because the product strength of new energy vehicles has surpassed the same price of fuel vehicles, on the other hand, with the gradual improvement of the whole society's energy supplementation system, the use experience of electric vehicles is getting better and better." In 2022, WEI WILL HAVE 3 NT2.0 products such as ET7 delivered, and Xiaopeng, Ideal and many traditional car companies will have more than 200 new products entering the market, which will be more advanced in technology than fuel vehicles. We believe that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to increase rapidly in 2022. ”
Such a confident answer comes from Ma Lin, head of corporate communications at WEILAI. The entry of more than 200 new products he mentioned into the market is an absolute guarantee for the net increase of the new energy market in 2022.
Similarly, in the past year, BYD has just set its own record for the best delivery. With enough arguments as a support, it prompted its chairman Wang Chuanfu to say: "The growth of new things is never equally proportional, it is first low and then high." Even according to conservative estimates of equal proportions, it will certainly be in the early twenties of this year. If there is another 15% increase, by the end of next year, it can be as high as 35%, far exceeding the original master plan. ”
Obviously, in his eyes, the penetration rate of new energy in 2022 will reach more than 20%, and if everything goes well, it may even reach a high point of 35%. Then, assuming that the 2021 retail sales announced by the multiplication association are 20.146 million vehicles as the basis, simple conversion, the new energy retail sales in 2022 may reach more than 5 million vehicles.
From another dimension, relevant data show that in 2021, there will be 2.95 million newly registered new energy vehicles nationwide, accounting for 11.25% of the total number of newly registered vehicles, an increase of 1.78 million units compared with the previous year, an increase of 151.61%. In the past five years, the number of newly registered new energy vehicles has increased from 650,000 in 2017 to 2.95 million in 2021, showing a high-speed upward trend.
This year, if such an increase can be guaranteed, or even continue to accelerate, there is a high probability that it will exceed the 5 million mark in the total.
"The original sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 were expected to be 4.8 million units, but now it should be adjusted to more than 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars has reached about 25%. New energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is about 22%. ”
Although the figures are slightly off, the forecast for this year's multiplication association is also very optimistic. Because in the fourth quarter of 2021, China's new energy passenger car sales have reached 1.3 million, with the domestic consumers' recognition of the new energy market significantly improved, the strength of policy subsidies is stable, will inevitably promote the total sales of New Energy Vehicles in China in 2022 soared, continue to maintain the world's leading position of more than 50% share.
In summary, after removing some uncontrollable factors, "5 million vehicles, 20%" seems to be a more stable phased target for the entire new energy market in 2022. For all the participants in it, after the arrival of spring, it is the height of summer, and it is finished!
| Cui Liwen |
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