On January 11, Eastern Time, Xiaopeng, Ideal and Weilai, three New Energy Vehicle Chinese stocks collectively pulled up, closing with 7.34%, 8.24%, and 3.84% gains respectively, and rose by 5.73%, 3.15%, and 5.53% respectively to the close of the 12th. Driven by the positive market, even Faraday Future's intraday gains exceeded 10%.
Xiaopeng Automobile shares from January 6 to 12 (US stocks)
Source: Snowball
At this end of the earth, the vehicle sector of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks also performed strongly in the two trading days of the 12th and 13th, and the new energy advantages such as Xiaopeng, Ideal, BYD, and GAC Group rose significantly.
After experiencing a sustained decline in the previous nearly a week, is the collective rise of the vehicle sector bottoming out, or a short-term recovery, or is the market sentiment about to pick up?
Bai Yiyang, manager of the research department of CMB International Securities Co., Ltd., told Phoenix Auto that there are two main reasons for the collective rise of the vehicle sector: first, the association announced the sales data for 2021 on January 11, and raised the target of new energy passenger cars in 2022, which is good for the entire market; second, GAC Group released the 2021 annual performance forecast on the same day, and its fourth quarter exceeded market expectations, and the entire sector responded.
New energy vehicles will continue to maintain rapid growth
According to the data released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the cumulative retail sales of China's passenger car market reached 20.146 million units in 2021, up 4.4% year-on-year, of which the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 2.989 million units, a substantial increase of 169.1% year-on-year, and the penetration rate reached 14.8%.
On January 11, the Ministry of Public Security released authoritative data that by the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in the country reached 7.84 million, accounting for 2.60% of the total number of vehicles. Among them, there are 2.95 million newly registered new energy vehicles nationwide, accounting for 11.25% of the total number of newly registered vehicles, showing a rapid growth trend.
After entering 2022, although the subsidy for new energy vehicles has fallen by 30% on the basis of last year, and Xiaopeng, Nezha, Eian and other enterprises have raised product prices, the Federation believes that the framework and threshold requirements of the purchase subsidy technical indicator system remain unchanged, and the policy is still favorable to the market will continue to maintain substantial growth.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that while the subsidy policy in previous years has declined, the threshold of technical indicators will continue to increase, while the technical indicators in 2022 will remain completely unchanged, which is very conducive to the growth of low-end models.
Zhang Xiang, an automotive analyst and researcher at the Automobile Industry Innovation Research Center of the North China University of Technology, pointed out that the government's support for new energy vehicles is multifaceted, such as exemption from purchase tax, licensing, etc., and subsidies are only one of them. ”
For the market expectations in 2022, the company will adjust the sales target of new energy passenger vehicles from the previous forecast of 4.8 million units to more than 5.5 million units, which means that the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach about 25%. The Caucus is relatively conservative and expects new energy vehicle sales to reach 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year.
Essence Securities believes that the expansion of the scale and technological progress of new energy vehicles will bring about the continuous improvement of cost reduction capabilities. Therefore, even with the implementation of subsidies and the rise in raw material prices, the prices of some models have been raised, but consumer demand is still not reduced, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to grow in 2022.
Driven by favorable policies and positive sentiments, it is reasonable that the secondary market is optimistic about the development momentum of new energy vehicle companies this year.
The new energy branch boosted the counterattack of traditional car companies
Judging from the performance of the domestic stock market, Xiaopeng, Ideal, GAC Group, BYD, Great Wall and Geely went all the way higher after the opening of the market on the 12th. Among them, GAC Group is particularly worth mentioning, and its Hong Kong stocks rose by 9.2% intraday. Some analysts pointed out that the 2021 annual performance forecast released on the 11th has led to a sharp rise in its stock price.
GAC Group Shares from January 7 to 13 (Hong Kong stocks)
According to preliminary calculations by the finance department, GAC Group expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 6.6-7.6 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of about 11%-27% year-on-year; and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of about 5.6-6.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 16%-39% year-on-year.
According to the data, GAC Group's cumulative sales in 2021 were 2,144,387 units, an increase of 4.92% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 142,853 units, an increase of 77.35% year-on-year; GAC Aean achieved a sales performance of 120,155 vehicles, a year-on-year surge of 101.80%, which not only exceeded the target of the top at the beginning of the year, but also surpassed new car manufacturers such as "Wei Xiaoli".
Not long ago, the Board of Directors of GAC Group deliberated and approved a business plan for 2022: to fully challenge the goal of 15% year-on-year growth in automobile production and sales in 2022. Judging from the group's current sales structure, in the increase of about 320,000, GAC Aean is bound to bear most of the heavy responsibilities.
On the 12th, Minsheng Securities, Soochow Securities and CITIC Securities all maintained a "buy" rating for GUANGZHOUC Group, and Dongxing Securities gave a "highly recommended" rating. Yin Xinchi, chief auto and parts analyst of the research department of CITIC Securities, pointed out that in 2022, the margin of each business of GAC Group will be good, the cycle of independent new models will open, and the spin-off of Aeon New Energy will be put on the agenda, and there will be sufficient profit flexibility in the future.
Behind the soaring stock price of GAC Group, on the one hand, it can be seen that relevant institutions are optimistic about the development momentum of new energy vehicles in 2022; on the other hand, the continuous growth of new energy vehicles may drive independent brands to further increase market share, and traditional car companies that have been suppressed by new car manufacturers are also expected to usher in a counterattack this year.