New energy into a "stable man" The decline of the automobile market has stopped in three years

China's auto market, which has been declining for three consecutive years, has finally re-drawn an upward curve. On January 12, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as "CAAM") released the list, and last year's domestic automobile sales reached 26.275 million units, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year. Since the beginning of 2018, the domestic car market has declined for three consecutive years, and this year, the global car market has suffered from chip shortages, which has caused the domestic car market to return to a positive growth path and encountered obstacles.

However, under the "core shortage" pass, the domestic automobile market has handed over a report card of 3.8% year-on-year growth by virtue of many advantages such as the soaring sales of new energy vehicles and the surge in automobile exports, which has ended three consecutive years of decline. But last year's positive growth is only the beginning, and the domestic auto market will continue to rise. Caucus china predicts that domestic automobile sales will reach 27.5 million units this year, an increase of 5% year-on-year.

High gold content 3.8%

According to the data, automobile production and sales in 2021 reached 26.082 million units and 26.275 million units, respectively, up 3.4% and 3.8% year-on-year. From the data point of view, the overall growth is inseparable from the contribution of passenger cars, last year's passenger car production and sales were 21.408 million units and 21.482 million units, up 7.1% and 6.5% year-on-year, respectively; commercial vehicle production and sales were 4.674 million units and 4.793 million units, down 10.7% and 6.6% year-on-year, respectively.

In 2018, the sales volume of the domestic automobile market fell by 2.76% year-on-year; in 2019, the sales volume of the domestic automobile market fell by 8.2% year-on-year; and the sudden epidemic in 2020 caused the domestic automobile market to decline sharply in the first quarter of sales, although the automobile market accelerated in the second half of 2020, it still failed to pull the automobile market back to the positive growth track. However, last year, driven by passenger cars, the production and sales of automobiles in the domestic automobile market increased year-on-year, ending the previous three consecutive years of decline.

Based on the good performance of the automobile market in the second half of 2020, last year's junior high school automobile association gave a full-year forecast of positive growth of 4%, while the domestic automobile market showed a climbing trend at the beginning of the year. However, last year's positive growth road is not smooth, due to the global chip shortage problem, the domestic car market almost once again with positive growth "lost", since May last year, the domestic car market has a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, and then the decline situation continues to expand.

The relevant person in charge of the China Automobile Association said that due to the low base at the beginning of last year, the passenger car market showed a substantial growth. However, with the gradual emergence of the problem of insufficient chip supply and the rapid increase in the base number in the same period, the passenger car market began to decline, and the decline rate has expanded. Entering the fourth quarter, with the gradual easing of chip problems, the passenger car market has stabilized and the decline has gradually narrowed.

Although affected by the chip shortage, the rapid growth of sales in the first half of the year still pulled the car market back to the positive growth track, and the domestic car market in 2021 gave a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. In the view of Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, under the various crises of foreign epidemics, natural disasters and chip shortages, the domestic car market can still have a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, although lower than the 4% expectation given at the beginning of the year, but the overall gold content is very high.

Behind the return to the right track

Under the supply chain crisis, the domestic auto market can still maintain the bottom line of positive growth behind the new energy vehicles to become a "stable man".

According to the data, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units respectively last year, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. Among the main varieties of new energy vehicles, compared with the same period last year, the production and sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles have shown a high-speed growth momentum. The relevant person in charge of the China Automobile Association said that last year, the biggest highlight of the new energy vehicle market, the annual sales volume exceeded 3.5 million, and the market share increased to 13.4%, further indicating that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven.

Although the domestic auto market has been plagued by chip shortages, sales of new energy vehicles have been rushing. At the beginning of last year, the China Automobile Association expected annual sales of new energy vehicles to be 1.8 million units, an increase of 40% year-on-year. However, with the rising sales of new energy vehicles every month, the China Automobile Association has repeatedly raised its sales forecast from 1.8 million to 2 million to 2.4 million, and directly raised the annual sales forecast of new energy vehicles to 3 million in early November last year.

Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said that at present, not only consumers in first-tier cities are willing to buy new energy vehicles, but also sink to rural areas, and the acceptance of new energy vehicles continues to increase. At the same time, with the maturity of products and the decline in costs, the gradual improvement of the cost performance of new energy vehicles has also attracted consumers' attention. In addition, the application of technologies such as intelligent and networked new energy vehicles has also attracted many young car buyers, which has also made new energy vehicles more popular in the market.

In addition to new energy vehicles, automobile exports have also become one of the highlights of last year. According to the data, last year's automobile export volume was 2.015 million units, an increase of 1 times year-on-year, accounting for 7.7% of the total automobile sales, an increase of 3.7%. The relevant person in charge of the China Automobile Association said: "China's automobile export volume exceeded 2 million for the first time, achieving a breakthrough of 1 million vehicles that has been hovering for many years. Among them, last year, 310,000 new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 3 times year-on-year. ”

Last year's auto market sales growth rate returned to positive, but also let the CAAM side of the car market full of confidence this year. Chen Shihua said that the judgment of the China Automobile Association on this year's automobile market is that the annual automobile market sales will reach 27.5 million units, an increase of 5% year-on-year. Among them, passenger cars will increase by 7% year-on-year. This year's new energy vehicle market sales are expected to reach 5 million units, an increase of 42% year-on-year.

Beijing Business Daily reporter Liu Xiaomeng