This is a year of early outbreak of new energy vehicles.
Source: Parity (ID: jioupai)
Author: Not to be spoken
Edit: Zhao
New energy vehicles in 2021 are undoubtedly one of the most watched tracks.
Looking back at the entire 2021, under the tone of "double carbon", the sales of new energy vehicles have ushered in explosive growth. Under the background of the decline in automobile production and sales, new energy vehicles have risen against the trend.
Although new energy vehicles have achieved remarkable results in 2021, they are still facing supply chain pressures such as soaring raw material prices and shortages of spare parts such as chips.
The industry generally believes that 2021 is the first year of the great development of new energy vehicles, and 2022 will be a watershed in the new energy automobile industry.
Next year, the trend of "electrification" of the automobile industry will become more and more obvious, the market competition will become more and more intense, and subsidies will decline, the cost of raw materials will increase, and the shortage of chips will continue to plague the entire industry.
We reviewed the 2021 of new energy vehicles from three aspects: products and services, markets and policies, industry and supporting facilities, and made an outlook for the future of new energy vehicles.
Products & Services
01
Annual sales exceeded expectations
Penetration rate increases rapidly
In 2021, new energy vehicles ushered in a big outbreak, and the market penetration rate increased rapidly under the impetus of independent and new power brands.
With the release of sales data of some new energy vehicle brands in December, the annual report card of the past year has also been revealed.
Tesla ranked first with an annual sales volume of 936,200 units, approaching the 1 million mark, an increase of 436,000 units or 87.2% compared with 2020.
BYD once again set a new record in China, with annual sales of new energy passenger cars reaching 593,700 units in 2021, up 231.6% year-on-year.
New energy vehicle sales in December and 2021 Odd and even pie mapping
In the camp of new car-making forces, the total delivery volume of Xiaopeng Automobile reached 98,155 vehicles in the whole year, an increase of more than 263% year-on-year; the annual delivery of Weilai Automobile reached 91,429 vehicles, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year, ranking second among the new forces; and the total sales of Ideal Automobile in 2021 reached 90,491 units, an increase of 177.4% year-on-year.
In the second echelon, Nezha, Weima, etc. began to make continuous efforts, monthly sales directly approached the head camp, Volkswagen and other joint venture car companies lagged behind, and in just half a year, they also achieved monthly sales of more than 10,000.
The production and sales of the entire new energy vehicle continued to reach a new high. According to data from the China Automobile Association, the cumulative production from January to November has exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the sales volume is close to 3 million vehicles, and the cumulative sales penetration rate has increased to 12.7%.
Photo: China Automobile Association
According to the latest forecast of the China Automobile Association, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 3.4-3.6 million units this year, far exceeding the 2.4 million vehicles expected at the beginning of the year.
According to the current development trend, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that the original expected sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 of 4.8 million units should be adjusted to 5.5 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars will reach about 25%; new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be about 22%, reaching the state's previous goal of "reaching 20% penetration rate of new energy vehicles by 2025" 3 years in advance.
02
Traditional car companies seek brand upwards
New forces sink
In 2021, traditional car companies have made efforts to the high-end market, and in the new track of new energy vehicles, brand upward is a major weapon to achieve market breakthroughs. After the new forces opened the high-end market with the first-mover advantage, they began to sink in search of explosive models.
In the process of accelerating the transformation to electrification, traditional car companies have actively laid out high-end intelligent electric vehicles by virtue of their advantages in vehicle manufacturing, supply chain, capital chain and other aspects.
Dongfeng launched the high-end electric brand Lantu, Geely launched the extreme krypton, SAIC launched Feifan and jointly created Zhiji with Ali and Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, in addition to Gaohe, Hongqi and other brands have also continuously launched an impact on high-end.
Different from the traditional car companies impacting the high-end market, Wei Xiaoli, Nezha and other new car-making forces have already had a certain reputation and market share in the market by virtue of their early entry, and the delivery volume in 2021 will continue to break through and repeatedly reach new highs.
Photo/ Che Niu Net
Under the premise of maintaining the high-end intelligent electric market, the new forces have also begun to lay out the low-end market of 100,000-200,000 to create explosive models. At present, the new models released or laid out by the new forces in the sinking market include: Nio sub-brand (Gemini), Xiaopeng P5, Ideal X01, Nezha S, zero run C11.
03
The second half opened
Intelligent acceleration
Entering the second half of the new energy car, intelligence has become the main theme.
Similar to the overall trend, the intelligent pace of new energy vehicles has basically shown a steady forward trend.
According to the data of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the current penetration rate of new cars at the cockpit intelligent configuration level in the Chinese market is about 48.8%, and it is expected to exceed 75% by 2025, which is higher than the assembly rate level of the global market, in order to meet China's growing demand for intelligent cockpit configuration.
Data Foresight Industry Research Institute Parity Mapping
In terms of automatic driving, by September 2021, L2-level intelligent networked vehicles have accounted for more than 42%.
In fact, the realization of L3 level and above high-level automatic driving based on lidar has become the mainstream route of the industry, and OEMs including Xiaopeng, WM, Great Wall, BAIC, Mercedes-Benz, Aichi, GAC Aean, etc. have released lidar models.
With the reduction of the cost of lidar, more car companies will release models equipped with L3 level autonomous driving in 2022.
Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, said that by 2025, China's L2 and L3-level intelligent networked vehicles will account for nearly 50% of the market sales that year.
In addition, with the entry of domestic technology companies such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Baidu, the intelligence of new energy vehicles will become the theme of competition.
Although the intelligence of new energy vehicles has become an inevitable trend, chips, artificial intelligence, software, etc. have also become new "card neck" fields. Only by enhancing their independent research and development capabilities and constantly innovating and iterating can car companies form their own intelligent technology competitiveness.
04
Diversified marketing model
Community-based operation
Nowadays, the new car-making forces no longer follow the traditional 4S store model, and have launched diversified sales models to pay more attention to user experience.
Tesla is the pioneer of the direct sales model, Wei Xiaoli has created an offline experience model on the basis of online ordering, and the second wave of new car-making forces from traditional car companies such as Jihu, Lantu, and Ji Kr are also constantly innovating marketing models.
At present, the new forces generally adopt the combination of online and offline methods, online user operations through APP malls, communities, etc., to increase the stickiness of users, while offline provides car owners and intended car owners with model introduction, exchange services and other activities through the way of experience centers.
The new energy vehicle experience center is generally located in the commercial center with large traffic, which is mainly used for brand display and user experience, which can greatly enhance brand awareness. The separation of experience and sales also gives consumers more room to think about each other, maximizing the consumer experience.
At the same time, many car companies have also upgraded their services on the basis of the experience center, taking NIO House as an example, the entire experience center integrates multi-functional experience areas such as parent-child interaction area, book area, and model display area, which further increases the consumer experience and enhances the value of the user circle.
Traditional car companies that once dominated the sales model of 4S stores are also actively transforming their marketing and service models.
BAIC BJEV has tried to break through the traditional automobile marketing model, using Internet thinking and new media communication means to carry out multi-channel innovative marketing; Lantu has also opened a Lantu space in a commercial center with a large flow of people, and held offline activities such as Lantu User Night to further increase user stickiness and brand recognition.
Figure/Parity
Compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles have less maintenance and repair, and in the future, with the further improvement of the degree of intelligence, the demand for maintenance and repair will be less, and the tasks undertaken by offline stores are greatly reduced compared with 4S stores. This will inevitably lead to the future development of the automobile marketing model into a form of online as the main and offline as a supplement.
Although at present, how to sell new energy vehicles is still being explored, network direct sales, experience centers, and community operations are becoming the mainstream marketing and service models of new energy vehicles.
Markets and Policy
05
Subsidies decline
Market-driven
China's new energy vehicles can achieve a first-mover advantage, largely benefiting from the high subsidies for new energy vehicles in the early days, but this situation is changing.
On December 31, 2021, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022, which clarified that from January 1, 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021.
Although Weilai, Xiaopeng and others have launched a limited-time insurance strategy to temporarily alleviate the impact of subsidy decline, a number of new energy vehicle companies have announced the adjustment of the price of new cars in 2022, and the cost increase caused by the subsidy decline will eventually be passed on to consumers.
On the day of the release of the policy, Tesla announced on its official website that the domestic Model 3 rear-wheel drive version rose from 255,652 yuan to 265,652 yuan, an increase in price of 10,000 yuan; the starting price of the domestic Model Y rear-wheel drive version was raised from 280,752 yuan to 301,840 yuan, an increase of about 21,100 yuan.
A number of new energy brands, including Nezha, Extraordinary, and GAC Aean, have also made it clear that they will adjust the price of new cars in 2022, and most of them will rise.
In the short term, the popularity of new energy vehicles will bring a certain anti-phagocytic effect, but in the long run, the subsidy decline does not mark the decline in the competitiveness of new energy vehicles, but will promote the development of the industry more mature, pay more attention to the product itself.
New energy vehicles will enter the market-oriented driving stage of real competition by product strength, which is more beneficial than harmful to the entire automotive industry and consumers.
06
Electrification accelerates
The market is full of flowers
From the overall situation of the new energy vehicle market in 2021, with the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the user's awareness of new energy vehicles is also improving, which provides more possibilities for car companies that enter the market later.
The eye-catching ability of the second wave of new car-making forces represented by the transformation of traditional car companies is not inferior to that of the first batch of "players".
Since 2021, under the trend that the "double carbon" goal has become a world trend, international auto giants including BBA and joint venture car companies have increased their investment and strategic layout in new energy vehicles, which started late in the field of new energy vehicles, but in fact, their technical reserves are not weak.
At present, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Volvo are all launching 2 to 3 new energy vehicles per year to accelerate the layout of new energy vehicles, and Toyota and Hyundai are eager to try in the field of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
As more and more traditional car companies move towards electrification and intelligence, the result will inevitably be the further intensification of market competition.
In addition, the cross-border entry of high-tech companies such as Xiaomi and Apple cannot be underestimated, and it will definitely have an impact on the existing competitive landscape in the future.
The market is full of flowers and a hundred schools of thought, which will be one of the obvious changes after the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase next year.
07
Infrastructure construction accelerated
The sinking market has broad prospects
Behind the growing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the market is also constantly penetrating into third- and fourth-tier cities.
In the past, due to the influence of factors such as basic facilities, policies, and consumption concepts, the new energy vehicle market was mainly concentrated in several large cities where automobile traffic was restricted and purchased.
Nowadays, with the continuous improvement of infrastructure and the continuous improvement of the popularity of new energy vehicles, the sales of new energy vehicles in third- and fourth-tier cities have begun to grow, and with the expansion of the scope of activities of new energy vehicles in the countryside, consumers in rural areas have also begun to buy and use new energy vehicles.
The recently released "China New Energy Vehicle City Liuzhou Model Big Data Report" pointed out that taking small pure electric passenger cars as an example, the promotion of small pure electric passenger cars in fourth- and fifth-tier cities in China accounted for only 6.53% and 0.87% of the total in 2017, but from January to June 2020, the proportion has quickly reached 16.07% and 6.28%.
At present, the number of cars in China's fourth-tier cities accounts for nearly 30% of the country's car ownership, but the electrification rate is only 0.6%. This also shows to a certain extent that electric vehicles in third- and fourth-tier cities still have a lot of room for development.
"In fact, the continuous increase in sales of new energy vehicles and the continuous sinking of the market are accompanied by shadows." Zhou Lijun, president of E-Car Research Institute, said, "The proportion of users in the new energy vehicle market in third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities has increased significantly in recent years, accounting for nearly 30% in the first half of this year, which has become a new driving force for the market. ”
Since 2021, various localities have successively introduced "new infrastructure" construction plans during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, especially in the field of new energy vehicle charging piles, and all localities are vigorously promoting. With the opening of the "racing" mode of charging pile construction, the new energy vehicle market will also accelerate its sinking.
Industry and supporting facilities
08
Upstream resource prices increase
Battery prices are under pressure
With the soaring sales of new energy vehicles, the installed power battery as the core component of new energy vehicles has also risen sharply, tripling for two consecutive years.
Although the output of lithium-ion batteries in China has been growing since 2021, the relationship between supply and demand is still difficult to balance. Affected by the epidemic and the shortage of upstream lithium ore resources, the gap between supply and demand of lithium batteries has been expanding, and the prices of various lithium battery materials have continued to rise, resulting in a sharp increase in the cost of power batteries.
Public data show that compared with Q4 of 2020, the price of diaphragms increased by > 10%; the price of anode materials increased by > 20%; the increase of cathode materials was > 40%; the increase of electrolytes and additives was >120%; the increase of lithium salts and lithium hexafluorophosphate was >170%.
The sharp increase in the price of a variety of raw materials has led to an increase in the cost of power batteries exceeding the increase in raw material prices.
On November 30, US research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) released news that the price of lithium batteries equipped with pure electric vehicles (EVs) and other devices in 2022 may rise for the first time since the investigation began. It will be $132 per kWh in 2021, down just 6 percent from the previous year and expected to rise to $135 in 2022.
The market predicts that China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to exceed 5.5 million units in 2022, driving China's power battery shipments to exceed 450GWh.
The lithium battery is currently predicted to be the best form of electrochemical energy storage products, for the time being, there is no trend of its alternative products, the shortage of lithium salt resources has become a consistent expectation, lithium carbonate products are in short supply, production capacity is limited, and the pattern of strong downstream demand cannot be changed for the time being.
Under this circumstance, it is expected that the price of China's power battery battery products will rise in 2022.
09
Transformation of the energy mix
Charge and swap coexist
The problem of difficulty in replenishing the energy of new energy vehicles has not been solved.
Tesla's battery swap technology, which Tesla did as early as 2013, once again came to the forefront.
Power exchange can greatly reduce the time required to replenish energy, while facilitating unified battery management, increasing battery life is also one of the advantages. But the disadvantages are also very obvious, due to the lack of effective business model, relying solely on the personal vehicle replacement support under the construction cost of the power station is too high, the current cost of a power station is about 5 million, battery specifications are difficult to unify, a single car company can not form a scale.
However, since 2021, the national policy has once again tilted towards power replacement, continuously introduced standards and norms for the industry, promoted the construction of power exchange infrastructure, and the development path is clear.
On the basis of policy support, the injection of capital has further promoted the integration of the industrial chain, and a feasible business model such as "vehicle-to-electricity separation, battery leasing" has been formed in the field of commercial vehicles and operating vehicles, and at this stage, the vehicle-electricity separation model has been well applied in many scenarios.
According to founder securities forecast, the power exchange model will achieve rapid penetration, it is expected that by 2025, the total sales volume of the power exchange model will exceed 3 million; the scale of the supporting power station will exceed 28,000 seats, corresponding to the market size of 76.5 billion; the battery will be about 55GWh, corresponding to the market size of 38.8 billion; and the corresponding electricity revenue will be 216.8 billion.
With the rapid expansion of the power exchange mode, the energy replenishment mode of new energy vehicles in the future will form a situation of coexistence of charging and replacing electricity.
10
The epidemic has been repeated
Chip shortages continue
In 2021, affected by the epidemic, the entire automotive industry suffered a huge impact on supply chain shortages such as "lack of cores", which had a huge impact on the entire automotive industry.
Many automakers have cut or suspended production of some models due to chip shortages, and some auto factories have even shut down work.
According to market research institute IHS Markit in the latest release of automotive research and analysis report pointed out that affected by the semiconductor supply chain, it is expected that the global light vehicle production in 2021 or will be reduced by 5.02 million, in 2022 this figure will be expanded to 8.45 million, in 2023 the global global light vehicle production cut has eased, the production is expected to be reduced by only 1.05 million.
Previously, Weilai due to chip shortage problems, resulting in a sharp decline in August 2021 sales; in September, ideal by the millimeter wave radar suppliers of special chips shortage, sales also suffered Waterloo, but also appeared to sell the car first and then install radar helpless move; Tesla is no exception, Musk in September publicly said that the remaining time of this year's production growth will depend on the global chip shortage, at present, Tesla's chip problem has not been alleviated.
According to Tao Lin, global vice president of Tesla, in the context of globalization, unexpected situations such as the epidemic have led to manpower shortages, which have a relatively large impact on the prices of chips and raw materials. In this case, enterprises at any link in the supply chain cannot be left alone, and controlling the epidemic can help chip and raw material production get back on track. Of course, supply chain problems are superimposed on many factors, and all parties need to work together to solve them.
Most people in the industry believe that due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the extreme shortage of chips will continue until the second quarter of 2022, and the development of the automotive industry will still face supply chain pressure in the short term.
Write at the end
2021 is a year of rapid development of the new energy automobile industry, and the entire industrial chain has still achieved rapid sales growth under the impact of the epidemic and lack of core conditions, which allows us to see the potential for the growth of the new energy vehicle market.
In 2022, with the continuous enrichment of the product lines of new forces, the accelerated transformation of traditional car companies, and the cross-border entry of Internet companies, the competition in the new energy vehicle market will become more and more intense.
Coupled with the decline of domestic new energy subsidies, soaring upstream costs, and the continuous lack of core caused by repeated epidemics, etc., will bring more uncertainty to the entire industry.
However, whether subsidies decline or market competition intensifies, it will force car companies to improve their product strength; the lack of core will promote the ability of the industrial chain to independently manufacture cores to ensure supply to a certain extent; the soaring upstream cost will also urge car companies to improve their manufacturing and supply chain management capabilities.
In any case, for new energy vehicle companies, they must be prepared to face more fierce competition. The new energy vehicle track in 2022 will surely be a year of cruel competition and rich and colorful.