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Perhaps in the eyes of a small number of people with unclear intentions, the relationship between oil and electricity is like that of a Han thief and a thief, and Wang Ye is not partial. But the market speaks in terms of sales, and there is such a name that has long been passed away at first glance, and in the past year, it has been reborn, becoming a magic weapon for car companies to make a fortune.
It is an old acquaintance of the automotive industry, plug-in hybrid PHEV.
New energy is still the same, and plugs and mixes are emerging
In 2021, new energy is still an unchanging trend. In the first 11 months, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 13.9%, and in the past 11 months, the number has been ignoring the cycle and rising month by month (the penetration rate of a single month in November has exceeded 20%), which indicates that the penetration rate of new energy in 2022 is almost destined to be higher.
The general direction has not changed, but some of the details of the "path" have quietly appeared signs of change. Friends who do not pay much attention to the development of the automotive industry often think that "new energy" is equivalent to "electric vehicles", but in fact, the latter is only a subset of the former but not all. At first glance, the two words are close, but their actual meanings are very different.
When we talk about "electrification/electro-driving", we are all vehicles that use electric motors, such as pure electric vehicles/BEVs, hybrids/HEVs, plug-in hybrids/PHEVs, and even more "combined" 48V micro-hybrids, and do not limit where electricity comes from. When we talk about "new energy", we limit the need to "drive using non-fuel (such as power grid) energy", which narrows down to two categories: pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids (including extended range hybrids). Hydrogen energy is negligible at this stage.
"Whether they can refuel" determines whether they have a threshold of choice for mainstream consumers; "whether they can be externally charged" determines whether they can contribute to the evolution of pure electrification.
Fully pure electrification is still the most foreseeable future at present, so how will we go to this endgame?
PHEV has taken a small step forward in 2021
Before 2021, plug-in hybrid PHEV has always been a rather chicken new energy category, and the actual sales volume is very different from its theoretical market space.
However, the ideal ONE listed in 2019 has slapped the face of all the plugs on the market. The ideal extended-range hybrid system, which can essentially be understood as a highly simplified plug-in hybrid, is also classified as a PHEV at the policy level. Almost at the same time of large-scale delivery, the ideal ONE immediately took the position of "plug-and-mix a brother", and stood shoulder to shoulder with the pure electric explosion models on the new energy sales list, leaving other plug-and-mix models far away.
This has given a lot of encouragement and inspiration. From the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, Great Wall and BYD have released their own DHT hybrid technology - a hybrid technology that "does addition" in the extended range hybrid and is more conducive to deriving PHEV. At the end of 2021, Geely also joined the DHT camp. Zengcheng Hybrid, in 2021 ushered in the self-tour home founded by Lantu and Li Yinan, which is under Dongfeng.
Players who have already begun to hand over the car have come up with beautiful and attractive answers. The ideal ONE with the longest delivery time has exceeded 10,000 units per month. The BYD DM-i, the first to be delivered in the DHT camp, lasted for several months and was difficult to find. In the new energy sales list in recent months, the top ten plugs and mixes are almost only DM-i and ideal, and their sales have been able to talk and laugh with pure electric explosive models.
November 2021 new energy sales list, Note: At present, BYD's "DM" models on sale are basically DM-i
The "Peaceful Evolution" of the Energy Revolution
Before continuing, it is necessary to re-explain what a plug-in PHEV is.
The "hybrid" we are more familiar with is mostly a non-plug-in hybrid HEV, which represents the Toyota Honda oil-electric hybrid, and their electrical energy is completely generated by the vehicle itself (internal combustion engine power generation or kinetic energy recovery), in other words, "only refueling". PHEV plug-in hybrid is to add an external charging port, which can use the power grid to replenish energy, "can also be charged."
The concept of PHEV was originally limited to "external charging". However, in most countries and regions of the world, the preferential treatment policy for new energy requires pure electric endurance of more than 50km to be counted as PHEV, which corresponds to a battery capacity of at least 10kWh. For example, Ferrari's first plug-in hybrid supercar SF90 can be charged externally, but only 7.9kWh of electricity makes the endurance only 25km, then it cannot enjoy the green card treatment of China's PHEV.
In fact, the "P" of PHEV does not have much special, it is nothing more than multiple charging ports. Any HEV hybrid model that increases the battery to achieve a pure electric endurance of 50km, and most will also increase the power of the power system to cope with the weight gain brought about by the above changes, and can get the PHEV version.
If you have seen the analysis conclusion that "HEV is more conducive to fuel saving and PHEV is more conducive to performance" in the past, please remember that it is a past tense: it is only a phased fact formed under specific historical conditions, not a fundamental difference between the two. Today's new generation of PHEV, represented by DHT hybrid, is also to break the above stage facts.
Theoretically, PHEV can both refuel and recharge, enjoy policy benefits and have no battery life anxiety, which should be an excellent choice before pure electric vehicles are truly mature. This is true for consumers, and it is also true for industry development.
PHEV needs good charging conditions to achieve its 100% performance, but even if it is not charged at all, it will not lie down. A more affordable sacrifice means a lower threshold of choice, and a theoretically larger market capacity at this stage. Looking at the problem from the perspective of development, if PHEV can go to the mainstream, a large number of external charging demands that are "mild but eventually exist" will be a powerful driver of charging infrastructure - and this is one of the several major lifelines of pure electric vehicles.
When consumers choose PHEV in a car purchase decision, it may be a temporary loss for the pure electric camp, but in the long run, the demand for charging facilities for PHEV will also benefit pure electric vehicles in the next car purchase decision. Every time the world adds a "rechargeable" car, the demand for charging facilities is one point more; and for every additional charging pile in the world, pure electric vehicles are one step closer to maturity and availability.
This is to boil the frog in warm water.
Therefore, although PHEV is "oil and electric wall head grass", it is the only external help of pure electric vehicles. From fuel (including unplugged hybrid HEVs) to the era of pure electric, the excessive pursuit of "from 0 to 1" in the short term may not be realistic, and a more gentle and peaceful evolution will show value in the long run. Before "electricity" matured, "oil" should have played the role of sending a ride, and it was naïve and short-sighted to oppose oil and electricity.
However, the theory is very full, but the reality is very bone. In the past few years, the share of "refuelable" PHEV is far less than that of pure electric vehicles that can only be charged, and it has not been able to make a difference in the pure electric vehicle fever that opened in 2018-2019. In the overall sales of new energy for a long time, the ratio of plug-in mixing to pure electricity is less than 1:4 - who helps whom.
Until the ideal ONE opened the head of the extended range hybrid, until BYD began to come up with its own serious DHT hybrid.
DHT, the antidote to plug-in hybridization
The iconic start of the comeback of plug-in hybrids was bydie's release of DM-i hybrids in early 2021. As the longest-running of the new generation of DHT hybrids, DM-i increased the cumulative sales of BYD plug-in hybrid models by 471% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year! (i.e. 5.71 times last year)
You know, BYD's pure electric vehicles, which are fully worthy of the word "fierce", have increased sales by "but only" 144% in the same period. In the first 11 months of 2020, BYD sold 210,000 fuel vehicles, 40,000 plug-in hybrids and 110,000 pure electric vehicles; in the same period of 2021, the ratio of the three became 130,000, 230,000 and 270,000. Feel the scale change.
This is against the backdrop of DM-i deliveries starting in March and large-scale deliveries only in May.
To some extent, such a staggering growth figure benefits from the temporary absence of DM-i's direct opponents: the release of the earlier Great Wall Lemon DHT only began to be delivered in the fourth quarter, Geely's Thor DHT was only at the end of the year, and the Honda i-MMD, which should be the grandfather of everyone's technology, was not concerned about the PHEV version...
This year, only BYD's family is full of pots, and next year it will be at least three countries fighting. In addition to its own brands, Honda may be more serious about launching PHEV models based on i-MMD, and German Volkswagen is also likely to get involved in DHT hybrids within 1-2 years and introduce them into the Chinese market.
We were 5 months ago ("The Triumph of Taking Off Your Pants and Farting?"). 3 months ago ("There is more than one "way to die" for fuel vehicles) and 1 month ago ("The fuel car you can't bear, the final way out is here"), three times have previewed, emphasized and summarized the strong momentum of this type of hybrid technology.
Honda i-MMD, BYD DM-i, Great Wall Lemon DHT, Geely Thor DHT, these basic principles are common, we collectively call DHT hybrid (please distinguish from the "lemon DHT", "Kunpeng DHT" and other brand names, forgive me, the technical difficulty is mostly dependent on the name). German supplier Schaeffler exhibited the DHT hybrid core component TQ250 (Volkswagen transmission codename) for Volkswagen at the Munich Motor Show in September.
Although most of the new car manufacturers have joined the pure electric camp, the extended-range hybrid route represented by the ideal ONE is actually similar to a simplified version of DHT without the direct drive capability of the internal combustion engine. Encouraged by the great success of the ideal, we have seen Lantu, Xilis/Huawei Smart Selection/AITO Qijie, Niuchuang Automobile/Ziyoujia (Li Yinan) choose the extended range hybrid.
Toyota's mature power split (PS) hybrid THS system has also introduced a PHEV version this year. The core of toyota THS hybrid also shares the Julang power hybrid system with GAC Trumpchi.
GAC introduced Toyota THS to walk on two legs
The "new hybrid" that can really exert the ability of PHEV from the perspective of this article is basically the above three categories, of which the focus is of course DHT hybrid. In addition, Changan launched the iDD hybrid, Chery launched the Kunpeng DHT hybrid (please also distinguish from the previous "DHT hybrid"), regardless of the technical route, the domestic first-line independent car companies have actually come up with their own new hybrids.
However, Chang'an iDD and Kunpeng DHT, as of press time, Hu has not found enough clear and accurate official materials to show that they belong to the above three types of hybrids - especially DHT. In line with the universal principle of "no belt is no writing", these two are not included in it and will not be discussed.
PHEV has not been able to get up for many years, and the original sin is not in the PHEV itself, but in the past those indisputable PHEV models.
For a long time, the PHEV models launched by car companies have been to a considerable extent to cope with policies, rather than first considering the actual use of users. In other words, the actual demand for the PHEV models that are finally produced is completely insufficient to support the plug-in hybrid to become a large category (compared to pure electricity and fuel).
The past PHEV models are also the most common PHEV models on the market today, and there are mostly two ways to "mix". The first is to "add" a motor in the vicinity of the transmission (that is, the so-called P2, P3). The other type directly abandons the internal combustion engine and adds a P4 motor to the axle at the other end of the internal combustion engine to get more performance. Of course, the two may also be used at the same time, or mixed with other minor types.
The benefits of this are obvious, such PHEV and fuel version have a strong platform versatility, convenient collinear production and reduce costs. Most of the changes to the PHEV model are focused on the gearbox, and the internal combustion engine can be modified with only minor changes. But all this does not affect as long as there is a battery body with a power capacity of 50km pure electric endurance, the PHEV identity is solid. Subsidies are in hand, points I have.
Typical P2 hybrid
Car companies are comfortable, and the vehicle parameters are also good-looking, but consumers who really take the car home are stomping their feet. Because most P2~P3 position motors do not have the ability to adjust the operating state of the internal combustion engine, they only rely on pure electric drive to "average" the fuel consumption. Once the battery power will run out, not only will it lose the power of the motor, but the weight of the car starting from 300kg will make the fuel consumption rise without falling.
The advantage of this type of PHEV is the powerful explosive force when the internal combustion engine + motor are output at the same time, so you can see a lot of plug-and-mix models that focus on performance, such as the Volkswagen GTE series, such as the Volvo T8 series. But the performance also depends on the power, not to mention the battery, motor, etc. to add hundreds of kilograms. The official score of the BMW X1 25Le is 7.4 seconds, and the power loss status I measured, 10 seconds.
"Using frequent charging for short-term powerful performance" is obviously by no means the most extensive need of the people, such a PHEV is popular, more is the result of the "convenience" of car companies. Naturally, consumers will vote with their wallets, which will also lead to the embarrassing situation of PHEV for many years in the past.
Mature hybrid technology that focuses on efficiency has already existed. One is the Power Split (PS) hybrid represented by Toyota THS, which takes the speed regulation of the planetary gear group as the core idea; the other is the DEDICATED Hybrid Transmission hybrid represented by the Honda i-MMD, with the tandem range as the core idea.
The focus of the Japanese two fields has always been the unplugged HEV model, in fact, the two derived PHEV versions are easy: increase the battery capacity to reach the 50km pure electric endurance threshold, and appropriately increase the motor power to cope with the weight of the car, which is enough. With the HEV hybrid model, the pressure of carbon integration has not been great, so until this year, several PHEV models have been sporadically launched.
Honda launched an i-MMD PHEV version of the CR-V earlier this year, but the car wasn't perfect. The largely increased size of the battery pack allowed the fuel tank to be raised from 53 to only 26 liters, the power did not change and the weight of the car increased, so that the 0-100km/h acceleration also fell sharply. It's not that there's something wrong with the PHEV version of the i-MMD, it's that Honda hasn't put enough effort into mass-producing the CR-V PHEV.
i-MMD, basically just like this three modes
As the originator of technology, Japanese brands are not very careful in the specific design of PHEV models, which gives independent brands a huge opportunity to make up for themselves.
The BYD DM-i, which was the first mass-produced, is essentially no different from the i-MMD, and can be regarded as the "basic model" of DHT hybrid. The basic principle is actually very simple: most of the time when the clutch is disconnected, the internal combustion engine is connected to only one of the motors to generate electricity, while the output of the other motor is essentially an extended range. When strong power is required, and the motor and the internal combustion engine are required to work together to meet the demand, the clutch is combined with the two. High-speed cruising is more conducive to the efficiency advantage of the internal combustion engine, and the internal combustion engine directly drives the wheels.
On this basis, Great Wall's Lemon DHT added a two-speed transmission to the internal combustion engine, and Geely's Thor DHT Pro added a three-speed transmission. The purpose of both is to reduce the pressure on the performance of the internal combustion engine in terms of efficiency, and to improve the NVH performance of the combustion engine at high speeds and the acceleration ability at low speeds. The corresponding costs are manufacturing complexity, reliability, cost and weight, and both delivery times are later than DM-i.
With the help of motor output variations, DHT mixes the simplest way to make the internal combustion engine run in the more efficient range as possible. Such characteristics allow THE DHT-based hybrid PHEV to have the inherent fuel-saving means that does not depend on the battery power in addition to the pure electric mileage, which changes the past of the "no oil tiger" of the previous PHEV model.
Therefore, today's PHEVs based on DHT hybrids are beginning to be willing to emphasize the "loss of electricity and fuel consumption", a previously difficult indicator. Take the compact SUV, the Macchiato PHEV equipped with lemon DHT, the Song Pro equipped with DM-i, the official power loss fuel consumption is only 4.4L/100km. You know, they are all PHEV models with more than 200-300kg heavy electric drive system.
DHT hybrid is not only used for PHEV, like the Honda i-MMD using a small battery is HEV, using a large battery that can support more than 50km of battery life is PHEV, but each has its own different choices. BYD only planned PHEV for DM-i, and according to the size of the battery capacity, it was divided into two versions: 51km endurance and 120km endurance. The Great Wall and Geely are hev and PHEV.
transition? Yes, but neither
Every time I talk about hybridization, I can't help but face a day more torture: it's 2202 years old, is it still necessary to do hybridization? In the eyes of many people, hybrid is "only a transitional product after all", and the future belongs to pure electricity after all. Not long ago, the core spirit of these problems was refined and sublimated by a big guy in a car circle with "I don't understand why some people still buy oil trucks".
From a long-term point of view, full pure electricity is the most likely inevitable result at present, so hybridization must be just one of the transitions. But don't forget Keynes's words: "In the long run, we are all dead in the end." All long-termism that ignores the cost of time is hooliganism.
If the so-called "transition" is not shorter than the normal renewal cycle of a family car, then for consumers, where is there any transition that does not transition? Is it necessary to choose a fuel vehicle or a hybrid vehicle at present, and continue to choose a fuel vehicle after a few years and more than a decade? Is it because the future belongs to the next agent who wants to make pure electric vehicles, they must rush to sacrifice themselves to the "early" electric vehicles that are not mature enough today?
Don't confuse future trends with current consumption. At the end of the 19th century, when there were not many gas stations on the earth, horse-drawn carriages were more convenient than cars. Choosing a horse-drawn carriage in 1890 and buying a Model T in 1925 was a normal consumption decision without any loss. Normal people will not leave things on earth from this moment on because human beings will eventually colonize space.
So can pure electricity be quickly popularized within the 1st to 2nd generation cycle?
At this time node at the end of 2021, if a series of cutting-edge technologies for electric vehicles are combined, it is likely that an electric vehicle can barely make up for the shortcomings of a fuel vehicle: ultra-high energy density batteries plus fast charging such as 800V, don't forget to match a sufficiently dense super fast charging pile network. But if such a formula is produced, the price will only be so high that no one cares about it – so we have not seen it so far.
Although China's luxury car sales have increased again and again, although the Chinese people can buy hang lung SKP every year, about 30% of the nearly 20 million passenger cars sold every year are below 120,000 yuan, 50% are under 180,000 yuan, and 70% are under 250,000 yuan. Even if the above-mentioned "perfect electric car" is really built , which is already waiting , its reasonable price is reduced to 70% of the budget , how long will it take?
Under the squeeze of increasingly severe carbon emission policies, until the "painless" pure electric vehicles reach the universal price point, car companies still need to survive, and people still need mobile transportation.
The internal combustion engine will not disappear anytime soon, because there is also a huge demand in the hybrid market. Hybrids won't be reduced to a "transition" overnight, unless the perfect electric car with "big full match" can go from technical verification to cheap popularization in a few years. Hybrids, especially plug-in hybrids, will replace pure fuel vehicles with higher efficiency in 2022 and beyond, and even help pure electric vehicles lay a good foundation for infrastructure issues such as charging piles.
Oil and electricity are not an either-or relationship at all, because the world is often complex, process-oriented, and spectacle-based, rather than being described by a simple conclusion of "who replaces whom."