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Time is like a white colt passing through the gap, and the world is like a white cloud dog!
The vicissitudes of 2021 have become a thing of the past, and the new 2022 has quietly arrived!
The year-end planning launched by the editorial department of Tencent's self-selected stocks is divided into a retrospective and a prospect.
In the retrospective, you can click on the year-end planning special topic to view the >> "A-share 2021 Year-end Planning".
The first bullet of the outlook is the | of the securities company's panoramic outlook for A-shares in 2022>> the "2022 Outlook" How will A shares go this year? Which stocks have opportunities? The most comprehensive brokerage point of view is coming》
Today is the second bullet of the outlook, focusing on the new energy vehicle track in the 2021 fire, and conducted a forward-looking analysis.
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Editor's note: For investors, hitting the track has become the secret of making money in 2021, investors who have selected new energy, photovoltaics, and metaversities have made a lot of money, but if insurance and medicine are selected, they may be in a downturn, but the New Year is coming, is the investment magic weapon in 2022 still on the track, and will this year's hot new energy, photovoltaic, and metacosm set off a boom again in 2022? Tencent Self-Selected Stocks and Minmetals Securities launched the "New Year Track Preview" series of planning to sort out the investment logic of the New Year for you.
The main text begins
2021 is coming to an end, the A-share market is changing, popular tracks have been pulled back, taking the new energy vehicle track as an example, on December 28, 2021, the new energy vehicle index (880951) rose by 35.99% year-to-date, of which Ningbo Founder 300998 rose 481% year-to-date, Zhongrong Electric 301031 rose 460% year-to-date, Jiangte Motor 002176 year-to-date rose 436%, Zhongjie Seiko 301072 rose 426% year-to-date, Hengshuai shares 300969 up 425% year-to-date, and other Zhenyu Technology, Huayi Technology, st Zotye also have more than 300% increases.
Taking domestic new energy vehicle sales as an example, China's new energy automobile industry will further erupt in 2021, with sales of 2.542 million units in the first ten months of 2021, far exceeding the whole of last year, and the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 will maintain a growth of more than 1 times.
The logic of the year-end change of new energy vehicles:
How does the subsidy policy affect the industry?
China's new energy automobile industry in 2021 after experiencing a year of magnificent and high growth, we are in the imagination of the industry situation in the new year, out of inertia, all parties are extremely optimistic about the direction of the industry in 2022, from the Chinese stock market new energy automobile industry sector throughout the year trend can be seen.
"The national supplement is less, start early, immediately make up your mind, lock in subsidies!" In the last month of 2021, many people have seen mobile phone text messages or friendly tips from brand car dealers. According to the current national subsidy policy to promote new energy vehicles, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% in 2022.
In fact, there are three types of new energy industry policies: total target policies, financial subsidy policies, and targeted policies in key areas. There are three stages in the policy deduction process:
(Policy-driven stage): Government subsidies to guide the start of the industry. Since 2009, the central government has subsidized the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, and as of now, China's new energy vehicle market has enjoyed 12 years of subsidy dividends. In the past 12 years, China's subsidy funds have invested about 129.5 billion yuan, covering more than 1.9159 million new energy vehicles. If you add the 18.3 billion yuan of pre-allocated funds announced by the Ministry of Finance in 2019-2020, the cumulative subsidy for new energy vehicles in China will reach 147.8 billion yuan.
At the same time, China's new energy vehicle sales have increased by more than 260 times in 12 years, from 5,209 units in 2009 to 1.367 million units in 2020, of which sales in 2009, 2014 and 2015 increased by more than 100% year-on-year.
(Policy + market-driven stage): With the expansion of industrial scale, subsidies decline year by year / targeted policies are issued, and the total amount of subsidies has been adjusted.
The list of subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2020 is the first to be disclosed. In the case of subsidies gradually refining and declining, compared with previous years, the number of subsidized vehicles has increased, but the net value of subsidies has declined. In 2020, a total of 584,900 new energy vehicles received subsidies, with a total subsidy of 10.537 billion yuan. In 2018, a total of 202,000 vehicles received subsidies, with a total subsidy of 15.74 billion yuan. From 2018 to the present, it is the process of "weaning" the entire new energy automobile industry. Since the beginning of 2019, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has begun to increase significantly. According to the China Automobile Association, the national sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 2.2 million in 2021.
In the two years of sudden changes in the new energy market, backward and weak players have gradually been eliminated, and the Matthew effect of the strong Hengqiang has begun to stand out.
(Market-driven stage): The policy is further withdrawn, and the market enters a benign and orderly development.
Subsequent countries will fully withdraw subsidies for new energy vehicles. In other words, the time left for new energy vehicles to "grow independently" has become less and less. At this stage, new energy vehicles have gradually begun to operate in a market- manner, and it is hoped that new energy vehicles that are completely dominated by the market will enter a benign and orderly development in the future.
Dialysis of the market nature of new energy vehicles in 2021:
Buying is "Industry Trends"
In fact, the essence of investment in new energy vehicles this year is to buy "industrial trends". According to the china automobile association's forecast of 3.4 million units in 2021, it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in December will still be more than 400,000 units, maintaining a high degree of prosperity; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the whole year will reach 13.0%. Drawing on the development of smart phones, when the industry penetration rate exceeds 10%, the entire industry will enter the "fast lane", until 50% to 60% will enter the "flat period", which is why there will be a large amount of money pouring into the new energy vehicle sector this year.
In fact, from a fundamental point of view, the sales performance of the domestic new energy vehicle market in 2021 exceeded expectations, according to the data of the China Automobile Association, from January to November 2021, the cumulative sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 2.990 million units, an increase of 166.8% year-on-year. According to the china automobile association's forecast of 3.4 million units in 2021, it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in December will still be more than 400,000 units, maintaining a high degree of prosperity; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the whole year will reach 13.0%.
According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million units in 2022, maintaining rapid growth year-on-year; the penetration rate will further increase to 18.2% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid penetration trend. Driven by China, Europe and the United States, global new energy vehicles are expected to enter the fast lane, and enterprises in the middle and upper reaches of the international supply chain are expected to benefit from development.
However, from the perspective of supply chain, the specific new energy vehicle industry has what is the logic of investment refinement, which is actually divided into three subdivisions:
Upstream non-ferrous metals and chemical raw materials, such as nickel, cobalt and lithium, such as the four major materials of batteries, etc.; individual stocks such as Jiangte Motor, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium and so on.
The midstream is more about the manufacture of parts, such as batteries, motors, electronic controls, etc.; individual stocks such as Ruiqi shares, Aolian Electronics, Hengshuai shares, etc.
Downstream is the vehicle manufacturing and related some automotive services, intelligent driving and other sectors. Individual stocks such as Luchang Technology, Wantong Intelligent Control, etc.
How much room is left in 2022?
Follow-up investment opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector
In the past year, the "focus" of funds has been lithium batteries and chemical resources in the middle and upper reaches, and the application attention to the downstream vehicle end is not high.
Taking history as a mirror, "smart phone + 4G" has spawned a mobile Internet market, and mobile games, mobile payment, e-commerce and Internet finance have blossomed everywhere; on the contrary, at present, "new energy vehicles + 5G" may collide with new sparks, such as the Internet of Vehicles, intelligent driving, car entertainment and other directions worthy of attention.
(1) The Internet of Vehicles began to emerge in 2010, which is a huge interactive network composed of information such as vehicle location, speed and route. Through GPS, RFID, sensors, camera image processing and other devices, vehicles can complete the collection of their own environment and status information. The Internet of Vehicles is actually to build an intelligent transportation network.
(2) The domestic intelligent driving industry is on the eve of explosive growth, and the phenomenon of layout tracks and layout stocks is constantly staged, especially intelligent equipment has launched an investment competition. The news that Apple plans to launch a smart driving car in 2025 has led to a round of accelerated rise in the intelligent driving concept stocks of A shares.
In fact, the concept of intelligent driving has been one of the biggest hot spots in the market in the past two years. Although it is still classified as a "concept", many related companies have formed a situation of intelligent product volume and rapid growth.
(3) The development of new energy vehicles urgently needs to solve the problem Of power battery recycling market has just started
The People's Times article pointed out that the power battery capacity decays, can not support the mileage, but a new battery is expensive. Recently, the recycling of waste batteries of new energy vehicles has received widespread attention and has become an urgent topic to be solved in the development of China's new energy automobile industry. According to data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the cumulative number of power batteries decommissioned in China in 2020 exceeded 200,000 tons (about 25GWh), and the market size reached 10 billion yuan.
Source: Minmetals Securities
Author: Wu Baojiang
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