"China Economic Weekly" reporter Lu Jiangtao
Striving to achieve carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 – this is China's commitment to the world.
According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), transportation is the third largest sector in China's total carbon emissions after power generation and heating, manufacturing and construction, and the combined carbon emissions of these three areas account for more than 70%. At the same time, the automotive industry related to these three areas is considered to be a crucial part of reducing carbon emissions, and in order to achieve the "double carbon" goal, the automotive industry will usher in a profound restructuring.
At present, the mainstream energy-saving and emission-reduction measures at home and abroad are the production of new energy vehicles, including pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will rise month by month, and the wholesale penetration rate of automobile manufacturers will increase from about 5% in January to 19.9% in November, which is faster than the most optimistic expectations in the industry.
From "policy-driven" to "market-driven"
Recently, the economic operation of the automobile industry in November released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that in the first 11 months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China completed 3.023 million and 2.990 million units respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate was 12.7%.
The industry generally believes that the driving force of high growth rate does not come from policy factors, and 2021 is the first year of the real marketization of new energy vehicles. Cui Yan, chief analyst of the automotive industry at Huaxi Securities, said that this year, new energy vehicles have gradually changed from policy-driven to supply-driven, and supply-side car companies have launched more and more high-quality models, which in turn has led to sales increases.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, also said recently that although the overall downward pressure on automobile production and sales is relatively large, there is still no shortage of bright spots in the industry: First, the demand for new energy vehicles is still strong, consumers are becoming more and more accepting of new energy vehicles, and the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven; second, automobile exports have maintained rapid growth year-on-year; third, the share of Chinese brand passenger cars has maintained growth for 8 consecutive months year-on-year.
It is worth mentioning that the new energy vehicle market in 2021 is no longer limited to a few head companies "supporting the scene", but has formed a situation of hundreds of contending.
According to the sales ranking of new energy passenger cars released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles, there were 14 companies with wholesale sales of more than 10,000 vehicles in November, and the number increased significantly compared with the previous period, and traditional car companies have gradually returned to the forefront. Compared with the new car manufacturing forces, the new energy transformation of traditional car companies is restricted in many ways, but in terms of capital investment, research and development capabilities, sales networks and base disk users, traditional car companies have obvious advantages, which provides strong support for the future development.
New energy vehicles not only "blossom" in China, but also gradually become an important force in exports. In 2021, the export of new energy passenger cars will grow strongly, not only with the promotion of large-scale exports from Tesla's China base, but also with the sharp increase in exports to Europe by major Car companies of China's own brands.
According to the current development trend of the new energy market, the sales of new energy vehicles next year may bring more surprises. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that sales of new energy models are expected to reach 5 million units in 2022. According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" issued in December 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in 2025 is to reach 20% of the total sales of new vehicles, and if the sales of new energy vehicles reach 5 million in 2022, this goal is expected to be achieved three years in advance.
Promote the green development of the automotive industry chain and supply chain
According to the incomplete statistics of the reporter of China Economic Weekly, at least 11 car companies have proposed a clear carbon neutrality timetable. The Volkswagen Group's vision for carbon neutrality is to achieve global carbon neutrality by 2050 through full product life cycle carbon reduction through the supply chain, manufacturing, product use and end of the product life cycle; Daimler plans to achieve carbon neutrality in passenger car production in Europe by 2022; and Volvo announced the "2040 Environmental Plan" in 2019, hoping to become a global climate zero-load benchmark by 2040 and achieve carbon neutrality.
In addition, international car companies such as Audi, GM, Toyota, and Honda have also made similar commitments.
Among domestic enterprises, many car companies have also launched relevant corporate planning related to carbon neutrality. For example, BYD announced in February this year that it will officially launch a carbon neutrality planning study for enterprises, and make three "1/3" subtractions on vehicle exhaust emissions to help the zero carbon target.
But for the automotive industry, aiming for carbon neutrality means that all aspects of the process, from front-end energy supply, to mid-end production and manufacturing, to tail-end exhaust emissions, need to be improved to effectively reduce carbon emissions. Due to the relatively long automotive industry chain, the carbon neutrality of the automotive industry is considered to be a huge system engineering and a protracted battle.
According to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), in addition to vehicle phase emissions, a large part of the automotive industry's carbon neutrality challenge lies in the supply chain. The emissions of the automotive industry are mainly concentrated in the main body of non-car companies, and the total emissions of upstream and downstream account for more than 95%, and the completion of the green revolution of car companies themselves is only the first step in the "Long March".
To this end, some automakers have begun to negotiate with suppliers on carbon neutrality planning matters, some car companies have clearly required in the supplier inquiry form, the premise of becoming their suppliers is - by 2023 in the European Union, 2025 in the world to fully adopt green electricity, and 25% of the materials need to be recycled and reused; some car companies mentioned in the inquiry form that their suppliers must fully adopt green electricity in 2021 to achieve their full chain zero carbon target What's more, mandatory requirements are imposed on suppliers in the letter of intent.
Recently, Yang Dayong, vice president of Changan Automobile Co., Ltd., said at the 2021 China Automotive Supply Chain Conference that Changan Automobile and supply chain member units will actively promote the process of carbon reduction, and in the past, the choice of suppliers often looked at the ability, quality, cost, etc., and the next step will increase the requirements for other aspects, especially the "double carbon" aspect. "For example, when manufacturing parts, the proportion of renewable energy used will become a future indicator, and we will set a series of target plans for supply chain companies every year, and may terminate cooperation when the target is not met."
Through the initiatives of relevant enterprises, it can be seen that the prototype of carbon reduction in the whole life cycle of the automotive supply chain has begun to appear.
It is worth mentioning that the policy level is also guiding the automobile industry to strengthen the linkage of the industrial chain. In August this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology replied to the proposal of the Fourth Session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) No. 1259 (No. 175 of the Ministry of Industry and Communications, Posts and Telecommunications), saying that it would work with relevant departments to accelerate the establishment and improvement of the construction of a carbon emission standard system for automobiles, and at the same time explore the establishment of a full-life carbon emission standard system including complete vehicles, key parts, vehicle materials, fuels, and comprehensive utilization of resources.
(This article was published in China Economic Weekly, No. 24, 2021)
Cover of the 24th issue of China Economic Weekly in 2021