Wen 丨 Giant Tide WAVE, author 丨 Jingyu
Holding Huawei's thigh, Xiaokang shares (SH: 601127, which rose 10 times a year, but after the new car launch, the stock price fell to a halt.
At the press conference on December 23, Huawei launched the second model cooperated with Xiaokang Xilis - AITO Q&I M5. In addition to adopting the new AITO brand, the cooperation between the two has also deepened.
Unlike the Cyrus SF5, which only adds Huawei parts to the rear, Huawei almost dominates everything about the new AITO M5. Caijing magazine quoted people familiar with the matter as saying, "It can be understood that this car is completely made by Huawei." So much so that after the press conference, speculation about whether Huawei will build a car is once again rampant.
The AITO brand is another attack after the setback of Huawei's first cooperation with Xiaokang. However, the capital market is obviously not optimistic about this, at least not optimistic about the well-off shares in a passive state. After the press conference on December 23, the stock price of Xiaokang shares fell for two consecutive days, and the market value evaporated by more than 17.6 billion yuan.
Share Price Performance of Xiaokang Shares (January 2021 to present)
The reason is that, on the one hand, the poor market performance of the Xilis SF5 seems to point to the gradual fading of the aura of Huawei's blessing, and it can no longer "turn mediocrity into magic". It is reported that at present, Huawei stores across the country have stopped selling Xilix SF5.
On the other hand, the stronger Huawei's dominance in the new brand means that Xiaokang shares are closer to the foundry.
When Huawei has a full set of intelligent solutions and sales channels with both software and hardware, and Xiaokang can only deal with the low-value parts of the industrial chain, its ability to obtain profits is naturally reduced accordingly, and the imagination space is far less than that of the new forces of car manufacturing.
Perhaps aware of this problem, Xiaokang tried to make up for the decline in bicycle profit margins by taking a quantitative approach. At the press conference, it proposed that "the company should become the world's top 3 brand of new energy vehicles within five years". But it is clear that this challenging goal has not yet convinced capital markets.
01, Huawei can not do "stone into gold"
Although Huawei can use technology + channels to empower car companies, it cannot play the role of "turning stones into gold".
In the domestic auto market, Xiaokang co., Ltd. used to belong to an unknown third-line automobile brand, and it was difficult to compete with first-line independent brands in research and development, products or word of mouth.
But since the beginning of the planned cooperation with Huawei, the stock price of Xiaokang shares has soared, with a cumulative increase of more than 10 times, and the market value is as high as more than 110 billion yuan, which is almost similar to the market value of Changan Automobile (SZ:000625). This sudden outbreak is naturally related to the blessing of partner Huawei.
In fact, in April 2019, before cooperating with Huawei, Xiaokang released the SF5 model of the new energy transformation product - the earliest name is not called Xilis. But at that time, the sales figures of this car were very dismal. From July to October 2020, the sales volume was 260 units, 59 units, 311 units and 300 units, respectively.
After cooperating with Huawei, the Xilix SF5 has received great market attention. At the beginning of the listing, SF5 had orders to break 6,000 units in a week, which amazed many industry observers.
However, the strong momentum of the Cyrus SF5 did not continue. According to the data from the Association of Passenger Transporters, its sales from April to November this year were 129 units, 204 units, 1097 units, 507 units, 715 units, 1117 units, 2205 units and 1446 units, with a cumulative sales volume of only 8000 units.
In contrast, the sales of the new car-making force "Wei Xiaoli" in November this year alone exceeded 10,000 units, and the sales of SF5 are far from it. Obviously, although Huawei can use technology + channels to empower car companies, it can boost sales to a certain extent, but it cannot play a role in "turning stones into gold".
It is reported that Huawei has internally proposed a sales target of selling 300,000 Huawei Smart Select vehicles by the end of 2022. Obviously, such a high goal is impossible to achieve with SF5 alone.
At present, Huawei stores across the country have stopped selling the Cyrus SF5. And due to the poor sales of SF5, dealers are not enthusiastic, according to media reports, Huawei has now no longer urged dealers to renovate stores to sell cars.
The cooperation between Huawei and Xiaokang Xilis can be seen as an exploration and attempt. After practical verification, realizing that simply reloading Huawei parts and adopting Huawei store channels is not enough to impress consumers, a new brand AITO Q&A came into being.
02, AITO has become a branded car?
Huawei's deep participation in new brands and models means that the voice of Xiaokang shares has decreased.
On the AITO M5, the first model of the new brand AITO, Huawei's cooperation with Xiaokang shares has further deepened, and it can even be said that Huawei has occupied a dominant position.
The AITO M5 is equipped with Huawei's HarmonyOS smart cockpit for the first time in the industry, and Huawei's industrial design team is also deeply involved in some of the hardware and software design of the model for the first time.
The extraordinary close cooperation quickly aroused heated public opinion. After all, a car company's new brand, new model, through the supplier's conference to obtain the volume of voice, while the car company is standing behind the scenes, this phenomenon is indeed rare.
After the release of AITO, the voices of "Huawei almost built a car", "AITO is a brand-name Huawei car", and "Xiaokang has become a Huawei foundry" has been heard endlessly. Caijing magazine quoted people familiar with the matter as saying, "It can be understood that this car is completely made by Huawei." ”
For Huawei, the above market evaluations are undoubtedly good news (and even Huawei may be happy to highlight this in its marketing promotions).
The influence and reputation of the Huawei brand are much higher than that of Xiaokang shares, highlighting Huawei's leading car manufacturing, which undoubtedly has a positive role in boosting sales.
In addition, Huawei's participation has improved its product strength and its attractiveness to consumers. It is foreseeable that aito's market performance will be better than smart SF5.
But for Xiaokang shares, Huawei's deeper participation in cooperation may be bad news. This means that the voice of Xiaokang shares has decreased. In the game between the two, Xiaokang shares fell behind.
If you only rely on the back-loading Huawei parts and Huawei sales channels, the Xilis SF5 can be sold, which on the one hand can convey the information of Xiaokang's excellent product strength to the capital market, and on the other hand, Xiaokang can also occupy a higher value part in the entire automotive industry chain. But in the end, it backfired.
In the new brand AITO, Huawei is not only deeply involved, but also supplies more high value-added parts, and the part of the entire industrial chain that can be distributed to Xiaokang will naturally decrease, which will inevitably affect the profit performance of Xiaokang shares.
Referring to the smart phone industry chain, in the profit distribution of the entire industry chain, suppliers of advanced accessories such as batteries, electric drive systems, chips and so on can obtain considerable profit margins, strong brands and channels can also have a good premium, and the profit margin of simple foundries and secondary parts will be at the end of the entire industry chain.
The AITO M5 is based on the Xilix SF5 already released by Xiaokang, and still uses Xiaokang's 1.5T four-cylinder range extender. If AITO releases pure electric models in the future and joins a higher level of Huawei's automatic driving, the position of Xiaokang in the entire industry chain will be further marginalized. "Becoming a foundry" seems to be getting closer and closer.
03. Selection under "Huawei Mode"
Can't "hug Huawei's thighs" like Xiaokang, and vehicle manufacturers will not be able to enjoy the same capital dividends as Xiaokang.
In fact, the in-depth cooperation with Huawei is a tangled choice for most car companies. Many car companies are worried that they may become the role of foundries under the "Huawei model".
For example, Chen Hong, chairman of SAIC Motor, said at the 2020 annual shareholders' meeting: "It is difficult for SAIC to accept a single supplier to provide us with a holistic solution, which will become 'he is the soul, I am the body'." We cannot accept it. ”
Perhaps it is precisely because of the reluctance to give up more discourse power, unlike Xiaokang shares, the cooperation between BAIC, Changan and GAC and Huawei has adopted the "HI model".
Specifically, based on the HUAWEI Inside full-stack solution launched in November 2020, Huawei can provide car companies with a full set of HI solutions, including Hongmeng car machines and self-developed in-vehicle computing chips, and authorize the use of HI Logos on the body.
However, in the more conservative "HI model", it is not possible to "hold Huawei's thighs tightly" like Xiaokang, and vehicle manufacturers will not be able to enjoy the same capital dividends as Xiaokang.
Taking Beiqi Blue Valley (SH:600733) as an example, its Jihu brand cooperated with Huawei to launch the Jihu Alpha S Huawei HI version based on the "HI model", which was mass-produced and rolled off the production line in May 2021.
The concept of Huawei (and the rumor that Huawei wants to invest in the Jihu brand) also pushed the stock price of Beiqi Blue Valley from 7-8 yuan at the beginning of this year to a maximum of 19.87 yuan, but eventually fell back to about 10 yuan. At present, the market value of Beiqi Blue Valley is only 44.6 billion yuan, which is about 1/2 of the market value of Xiaokang.
Beiqi Blue Valley Share Price Performance (January 2021 to present)
The reason is that, on the one hand, the sales volume of the Jihu brand and even the entire Beiqi Blue Valley is not good, on the other hand, the most valuable parts of the automotive industry chain such as intelligent driving and intelligent network connection are packaged to a third party, and the profits of important links are handed over to others, which is also a manifestation of the lack of competitiveness of enterprises.
More powerful car companies such as SAIC, new car-making forces such as Xiaopeng and Weilai are vigorously developing intelligent driving, especially mastering the algorithm in their own hands.
In comparison, the well-off shares of "hugging Huawei's thighs" whose stock price has soared are already lucky. In the case of profits being cut away by Huawei, the current well-off seems to be trying to take a path of "winning by quantity". At the press conference, Xiaokang proposed that "the company should become the world's top 3 brand of new energy vehicles within five years".
As we all know, there is a well-known Wright model in the automotive industry, that is, when sales increase by 100%, production costs will be reduced by 10%, or 10% profit margins will be generated. In the field of mobile phone foundry, there are also foxconn, although the profit of a single mobile phone is meager, but relying on the huge amount of foundry can still grow into an industry giant.
However, for Xiaokang shares, to become the world's top 3 brand of new energy vehicles within five years means to challenge Tesla, BYD, Volkswagen, and even a series of opponents such as Xiaomi and Apple in the future, and the difficulty can be imagined.
04, write at the end
In the era of intelligent cars, the role of OEMs has changed, and the industrial chain is constantly reshaping.
A study by the Boston Consulting Group pointed out that in the near future, auto companies will divide into three categories:
First, service car companies. Active transformation, service car companies with user contacts will dominate the terminal market;
Second, OEM car companies. Enterprises that lose user contacts face the fate of obsolescence or becoming foundries;
Third, a new type of foundry. The third type of player outside the industry will also actively attack and actively seek the new role of foundry.
The new car-making forces have been working in the terminal market for a long time, each with its own advantages, Xiaopeng Automobile is known for automatic driving and intelligent technology, ideal for the ultimate polishing of explosive products, and Weilai is known for user service and community culture.
Xiaokang shares are taking a different path from the above "OEM car companies", this model natural profit margin is lower, the imagination space is insufficient, relying on the number and cost control ability to win.
The key to running through the "OEM car enterprise" model lies in scale. After the 5-fold SF of Xilix, the new brand AITO carries the task of rapid lifting. For Xiaokang shares, this is a battle that cannot be lost.