Author | Jia Weizhong (Text/Watchmaking)
Source | Car selection network
——Analysis of the November 2021 Passenger Car Market Economy Index
This year's epidemic continued to interfere with the downward pressure on the economy, the shortage of chips led to insufficient supply in the car market, and passenger car sales in November returned to negative growth year-on-year, which is the seventh year-on-year negative growth this year, indicating that the automotive industry is still not out of trouble.
However, from the trend point of view, passenger cars achieved four consecutive months of positive month-on-month growth as of November. And, despite the challenges facing this year, the passenger car market in November was better than the same period in 2018 and 2019, and it is expected that there will still be upside potential in December, allowing industry people to see hope in the predicament.
The supply of mid-range cars is seriously insufficient
This year, for salespeople of different brands, the out-of-stock products may be different. However, from the perspective of wholesale sales provided by the Association, compared with the same period last year, the supply of mid-range cars of 90,000-190,000 yuan this year is seriously insufficient.
In November, the consumption capacity of automobiles declined and the consumption level increased slightly. Statistical analysis from Beijing Zhengze Dacheng shows that the national passenger car market in November this year was 390.15 billion yuan, an increase of -4.9% year-on-year. The regular passenger car market size index was 827.2 points, down 42.5 points from the same period last year, indicating a slight decline in spending power. The average sales price of passenger cars in the passenger car market in November was 182,000 yuan, up 0.2 million yuan from the same period last year. The regular passenger car price index was 131.0 points, up only 1.2 points from the same period last year, indicating a slight increase in consumption levels.
The chip shortage situation in November is still grim, although the sales of high-end and low-end cars are better than the same period last year, but the mid-range car fell sharply year-on-year, becoming the main factor dragging down the overall negative sales growth of passenger cars.
Passenger car sales in November were 2.1479 million units, up -5.1% year-on-year, according to the Association of Passenger Vehicles. Among them, the sales of high-end cars above 200,000 yuan were 769,900 units, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year; the sales of low-end cars below 80,000 yuan were 276,700 units, an increase of 13.5% year-on-year; and the sales of mid-range cars of 90,000-190,000 yuan were 1.1014 million units, an increase of -11.9% year-on-year.
The "lack of core" of automobiles has turned the buyer's market into a seller's market for many years. Some high-end cars are out of stock, and the overall growth rate of high-end cars has slowed down significantly, so the increase in automobile consumption level in November is limited; at the same time, the shortage of chips has brought about a serious shortage of mid-range car supply, dragging down the shrinking of the passenger car market.
Bright spots are evident in the predicament
Since 2018, the automobile market has declined, the momentum has intensified in 2019, and a wave of "epidemic market" market in 2020 has stopped falling and stabilized. This year, the automobile market is facing many challenges, November sales are not only better than the year of market downturn, but also the growth rate and share of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, which has become a bright spot in the market difficulties.
Overall, the repeated epidemic situation and chip shortage are the two major factors affecting the automobile market this year. Nevertheless, judging from the data of the Federation of Passenger Transporters, the supply-side situation has improved since the second half of the year. This was reflected in the positive month-on-month growth of passenger car sales for the fourth consecutive month as of November. Among them, the month-on-month growth rate in September and October exceeded double digits, and the month-on-month increase in November reached 8.9%.
It is worth noting that although the sales volume in November this year is lower than the same period in 2017 and 2020. However, this was an increase of 5.7% compared to the same period in 2019 and an increase of 0.6% compared to the same period in 2018. Plagued by the impact of the epidemic and chip shortages, this year's passenger car market has rebounded to the midstream level of the past five years, indicating that the momentum of stabilization under the impetus of last year's "epidemic market" is continuing.
At the macro level, the "contraction of demand, supply shock, and weakening expectations" mentioned by the Central Economic Work Conference this year are important factors affecting the growth of passenger cars this year and next. Therefore, the trend of the passenger car market next year is still not optimistic. However, while the demand for high-end cars this year is exceptionally strong, the low-end market has shown obvious warming characteristics, allowing the industry to see the dawn of hope. This was reflected in the fact that in November, high-end car sales increased by 30.0% compared with the same period in 2019 and 45.5% compared with 2018; low-end vehicles increased by 4.7% compared with the same period in 2019, and the gap with the same period in 2018 narrowed to 50,000 units.
In addition, in November, the passenger car market went up, and new energy vehicles contributed to it. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the month was 428,700 units, an increase of 131.7% year-on-year, and the market share of new energy vehicles reached a new high of 19.9% in the month.
At the just-concluded "2022 China Auto Market Development Forecast Summit", caucus predicted: "In 2022, the total sales of automobiles will be 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, of which passenger car sales will be 23 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year." "It shows that industry experts have a positive attitude towards the car market next year." As of November, passenger cars rose four times in a row, and the probability of the car market continuing to rise in December was larger. Moreover, November sales were better than the same period in 2018 and 2019, which is also a positive signal released by the market.
In short, although the situation in the auto market in the first half of next year is still relatively grim, the signal of stopping the decline and stabilizing has emerged, and we need to have confidence in the future.