Caamot Forecast: Next year, China's automobile sales will increase by 5.4% year-on-year, and new energy vehicles will exceed 5 million

2021 is coming to an end, and despite the shortage of chips, rising raw materials and other unfavorable factors, China's auto market has resisted the pressure and moved forward steadily. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's total automobile sales in 2021 will be 26.1 million units, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car sales were 21.3 million units, up 5.6% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales were 4.8 million units, down 6.4% year-on-year; and new energy vehicle sales were 3.4 million units, up 1.5 times year-on-year.

It can be seen that China's auto market will still maintain a growth trend in 2021, especially new energy vehicles are advancing by leaps and bounds. We can't help but look forward to the Chinese auto market in 2022. Recently, the China Automobile Association held the "2022 China Auto Market Development Forecast Summit", let us listen to how the participating experts predicted the development of China's auto market in 2022.

Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that overall, China's automobile market will maintain a moderate growth trend in the future. From the perspective of long-term development, the current Chinese market is still in the transition stage from the early stage of popularization to the late stage of popularization, and the sales of new cars have gradually shifted from the incremental market to the stock market. Although China's automobile market fluctuated in 2018, throughout history, developed countries in automobiles have also fluctuated for about 2-4 years in the popularization stage. Judging by this law, the production and sales of China's automobile market are currently at the end of short-term adjustment and will maintain a moderate growth trend in the future.

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Caambiz predicts that china's total automobile sales in 2022 will be 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, of which passenger car sales will be 23 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales will be 4.5 million units, down 6% year-on-year; and new energy vehicle sales will be 5 million units, an increase of 47%.

Caambiz also pointed out that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, factors such as macroeconomic recovery, the improvement of the economic situation of middle- and low-income groups, and policy support at the national policy level will promote the good development of China's auto market. Supported by the above strong factors, china's auto market is expected to reach about 30 million vehicles in 2025.

How do experts at mainstream car companies view the Chinese auto market in 2022?

The prejudgment of experts in Chang'an, Chongqing, is that there will be a slight increase in stability and a cruel competition. Loyal fans bring small increments in market delay, which is more obvious in the luxury car category; the barbell type of the new energy vehicle market is gradually converted to spindle shape, and it is expected that in 2022, driven by the compact market, the proportion of the vehicle market of 100,000-200,000 yuan will gradually increase; the elimination of marginal enterprises will accelerate, and the market concentration will increase again; the price will return to the market law and begin to explore; the mainstream of the joint venture will undertake competitive pressure, and the price of traditional ICE models will plummet. In 2022, the retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense will grow by 6.0%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will be 18.9%.

BYD passenger car experts predict the development of the new energy vehicle market in 2022 as a local variable and the prospect is promising. Among them, the "four new" are worth paying attention to: first, the new inflection point: the growth of the new energy automobile industry is in line with the "S-shaped curve", and 10%-15% is the rapid upward inflection point; the second is the new cognition: the new wave of domestic goods, the rise of independent new energy is just in time; the third is new growth: the new energy camp is expanding, and diversified products focus on various segments to meet more diversified needs; fourth, the new service: the omni-channel era is strongly attacked, and a new consumer experience is built. It is expected that the total number of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 5 million to 5.2 million in 2022.

FAW Jiefang's experts predict the development of the commercial vehicle market in 2022 that the demand for medium and heavy trucks will fall sharply to 1.15 million units, down more than 25% year-on-year, and its strain structure will be traction (44%), cargo (26%), dump (16%), and special (14%); the demand for light trucks will fall slightly to 2.12 million units, down less than 5% year-on-year, and its product structure will be from large to small: cargo (59%), pickup truck (30%), special (10%), and self-discharge (1%).