Caamotica forecasts that new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million in 2022 Chip shortage is still the biggest constraint

On December 14, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, officially released the annual automotive market forecast report for next year at the 2022 China Automotive Market Development Forecast Summit.

Caucus forecasts total vehicle sales of 27.5 million units in 2022, up 5.4% year-on-year. Among them, passenger cars will reach 23 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales will reach 4.5 million units, down 6% year-on-year; and new energy vehicles are forecast to reach 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year.

He pointed out that the sustained and stable recovery of the macro economy, the promotion of automobile consumption by macro policies, the continuous improvement of epidemic prevention and control, the strong overseas demand, the gradual recovery of chip supply, and the growth of new energy vehicle exports are favorable factors for the development of the automobile market next year.

But at the same time, he also said that there is downward pressure on the macro economy, employment affects consumption, the tight supply of chips will continue, the shortage of chips disturbs demand, the demand for commercial vehicles declines, and the disturbances caused by "replenishing inventory" bring uncertainty to the market.

Among them, the shortage of chips still has a significant impact on the development of the automotive industry. "According to the statistics of the association, the shortage of chips in January and October this year caused a gap of about 750,000 vehicles in the automobile market, and it is expected that the market will reduce by about 1.3 million to 1.4 million units due to chip shortages throughout the year." Chen Shihua pointed out.

However, on the whole, the China Automobile Association is optimistic about the overall development of the automobile market next year and during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. "The macroeconomic recovery, the improvement of the economic situation of low- and middle-income groups, and the policy support at the national policy level will all promote the good development of China's auto market."

Chen Shihua pointed out that China's auto market is expected to reach about 30 million vehicles in 2025. Among them, passenger car sales will reach about 25.26 million units, and commercial vehicle sales will reach about 4.75 million units.

In addition, for the specific data of the whole year, the China Automobile Association predicts that the total sales volume for the whole year of 2021 will be 26.1 million units, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. Among them, passenger cars reached 21.3 million units, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales of 4.8 million units, down 6.4% year-on-year; and new energy vehicle sales reached 3.4 million units, an increase of 1.5 times year-on-year. (Text/Tencent Auto Zhang Cuicui)