Written by | Fiesta ST
Edit | Ya Lan
On April 25, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential and Promoting the Sustained Recovery of Consumption. For the automotive industry, people seem to have seen a long-lost spring in it - this document clearly mentions the relaxation of purchase restrictions, encouraging new energy vehicles to go to the countryside, and promoting automobile consumption.
The "Opinions" pointed out that large-scale commercial circulation enterprises, e-commerce platforms and modern service enterprises should be encouraged and guided to extend to rural areas, and brand consumption and quality consumption should be promoted into rural areas. Focusing on automobiles and home appliances, guide enterprises to carry out promotions for rural areas, encourage qualified areas to carry out new energy vehicles and green smart home appliances to go to the countryside, and promote the construction of supporting facilities such as charging piles (stations).
At the same time, we will break down barriers that restrict consumption. Steadily increase the bulk consumption of automobiles and other bulk consumption, each region must not add new car purchase restriction measures, areas that have implemented purchase restrictions gradually increase the number of automobile incremental indicators, relax the qualification restrictions of car buyers, encourage the implementation of urban and suburban indicator differentiation policies in areas other than a few megacities, adjust the use of automobiles through legal, economic and scientific and technological means, gradually cancel automobile purchase restrictions according to local conditions, and promote the transformation of automobiles and other consumer goods from purchase management to use management.
The "Opinions" also specifically mentioned the aftermarket and pickup trucks: establish and improve the management mechanism of the automobile modification industry and accelerate the development of the automobile aftermarket. Completely abolish the policy of restricting the relocation of used cars, and implement inter-provincial measures for the registration of small non-operating used car transactions. Implement refined management of pickup trucks entering the city, and study further relax the restrictions on pickup trucks entering the city.
In fact, since 2018, in response to the declining auto market, rumors that the state will introduce a stimulus policy for the auto market have been rumored many times.
In 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission and other ten ministries and commissions issued a plan to formulate six major measures to promote automobile consumption, involving the scrapping and renewal of old cars, new energy subsidies, and rural automobile upgrading;
In August of the same year, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption", which proposed that areas that implement automobile purchase restrictions should explore specific measures to gradually relax or cancel purchase restrictions in light of actual conditions and release the potential of automobile consumption;
In February 2020, Qiushi magazine published an important article, clearly pointing out: "Expanding consumption is one of the important focus points to hedge the impact of the epidemic", "it is necessary to actively stabilize traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles, encourage automobile purchase restriction areas to appropriately increase the number plate quota of automobiles, and drive consumption of automobiles and related products." ”
In August 2021, Guo Shougang, deputy director of the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the 2021 China Automobile New Consumption Forum that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the cancellation of car purchase restrictions in various places, encourage local governments to introduce more preferential policies for real money and silver, and promote the transformation of automobiles from purchase management to use management.
Once again, the purpose of the relevant policy is very clear, that is, to boost the boom in the auto market, which is an important pillar of China's economy, has reached a dangerous level.
According to the latest data released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers for the second week of April, passenger car retail sales were 187,000 units, down 39% year-on-year. According to the April survey, the retail targets of major manufacturers fell sharply year-on-year, and the narrow passenger car retail market was initially estimated to be about 1.100 million units this month, down 31.9% year-on-year. The obvious growth of new energy vehicle sales has become a fig leaf for China's auto market, and if there is no new energy support, the sales data of almost waist cut will be even more frightening.
At the same time, the latest issue of the China Automobile Dealers Inventory Early Warning Index Survey of the China Automobile Association also shows that the inventory early warning index of Chinese automobile dealers reached 63.6% in March this year, up 8.1 percentage points year-on-year and 7.5 percentage points month-on-month. It is worth mentioning that the last time this index exceeded 60%, it was the most severe time of the epidemic in early 2020.
However, how much can the stimulus of the policy play a role in the car market? Still have to put a big question mark.
At present, the "North, Shanghai, Guangzhou, shenzhen" and Hangzhou, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and Hainan provinces have implemented purchase restriction policies. Previous policies have repeatedly called on all localities not to implement restrictions on new energy vehicles, purchase restrictions, and those that have been implemented should be cancelled, only Guiyang responded in 2019 and abolished the car purchase restriction policy. Later, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Beijing and other cities have also successively increased the indicators of new energy vehicles.
The policy of relaxing purchase restrictions has not produced a strong effect. Taking Guiyang, which canceled the purchase restriction in 2019 as an example, the annual automobile sales in 2020 fell sharply by 17.36%; in 2021, Guiyang's annual automobile sales fell by 0.5% again. The size of Guiyang's passenger car market has gone from more than 180,000 units sold annually in 2019 to only 158,000 units in 2021.
Whether it is the purchase tax incentive or the car going to the countryside, these tricks are like a strong needle, in 2009 and 2015, the two rounds of 1.6L and below small displacement passenger car purchase tax subsidy policy, did reverse the continuous decline in sales that year. But for the Chinese auto market in 2022, whether it is a car going to the countryside or relaxing the purchase restriction, it will not be able to solve the problem immediately.
Since the beginning of this year, the reason why car sales have declined significantly, the impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored. Under the impact of the epidemic, most 4S stores are full of doors, and many dealers in Chengdu and Chongqing said that the arrival rate dropped by at least 30% in March. According to a survey by the China Automobile Dealers Association, under the impact of this round of the epidemic, nearly 20% of dealer stores in China have closed their doors.
Since the beginning of April, many car companies have been affected by the epidemic and stopped production, including the tank 300 and other best-selling models have been forced to interrupt production. It can be expected that the terminal sales in the next few months may be more affected by the transmission from the production side.
But the epidemic is clearly not the only reason for the sluggishness of China's auto market in 2022. Retail sales in the domestic narrow passenger car market in January 2022 were 2.092 million units, down 4.4% year-on-year, and in February, the domestic narrow passenger car market sold 1.250 million units, down 39.9% month-on-month. In March, retail sales in the domestic narrow passenger car market were 1.579 million units, down 10.5% year-on-year.
After entering 2022, the sales volume of the car market has actually been in a state of decline. The repeated impact of the epidemic, the turmoil in the international situation, the sharp rise in fuel prices, and the combination of multiple factors have led to the loss of demand for car purchases. What's more, consumers' spending power and willingness to spend have also begun to change significantly – as wallets tighten, China's young people have become less willing (at least, for a short period of time) to consume cars.
This trend can be found in the automobile market in neighboring Japan.
For The Japanese in the 70s and 80s, the car was a status symbol, and it was a faceless thing for young guys to drive their girlfriends in a newly bought car. However, with the bursting of Japan's bubble economy, the Japanese stock market fell from a peak of more than 38,000 points in 1992 to more than 7,000 points at its lowest, and many people's life savings were wiped out. The brand-name cars bought by the loan cannot be sold at a discount.
The young Japanese who grew up witnessing this scene realized more soberly than their parents that the car is not equal to face, and its fundamental attribute is still the means of transportation. And having a car may be more of a burden than having a car. It is no wonder that Akio Toyoda once lamented: "Now Japanese young people are far more interested in bicycles than in cars, and maybe one day cars will not be sold at all." ”
Just recently, "why young people are reluctant to change their mobile phones" appeared on Weibo hot search, in the topic discussion, many people said that "young people are not only unwilling to change mobile phones, but also unwilling to buy a car."
If China's young people also begin to lose confidence in income growth and thus their willingness to consume cars, then policy stimulus alone may be difficult to achieve practical results. By analogy, after years of encouraging the introduction of the two-child policy, China's newborn birth rate has been declining, just like Japan's "low birthrate" in those years.
How can we restore the heat of the automotive market? To answer this question, we should first answer: How can we re-stimulate consumers' desire to buy a car?
For this question, in addition to the need for automakers to continue to work products and marketing, to create products that can better meet the needs of current consumers, but also rely on the solution of more macro problems...