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The executive meeting of the State Council held on the evening of April 13 pointed out that to encourage bulk consumption of automobiles and home appliances, all localities must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and the incremental indicators of purchase restrictions have been implemented. At the same time, it is also necessary to support the consumption of new energy vehicles.
Boosted by the news, the U.S. stocks of Chinese new energy vehicles rose at one point before the session, with Weilai Automobile up 3.5%, Xiaopeng Automobile up about 3%, and Ideal Automobile up 2.7%.
On April 11, the Association announced the production and sales data of the passenger car market in March this year. According to the data, the retail sales of the mainland passenger car market reached 1.579 million units in March, down 10.5% year-on-year; the cumulative retail sales from January to March were 4.915 million units, down 4.5% year-on-year, down 230,000 units year-on-year, and the overall trend was lower than expected.
In the report, the Association pointed out that the new crown epidemic spread across the country in March, and all localities continued to resolutely adopt the strategy of zeroing out social aspects. Distributors in Jilin, Shanghai, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and other places have been affected by the entry and transaction of stores, and the changes in the measures in charge of various places have a certain impact on logistics efficiency, and retail losses are large.
In terms of production, domestic passenger car production fell 0.3% year-on-year and increased by 22% month-on-month in March. Cui Dongshu said that the first quarter of last year due to the lack of core problems caused by the low base of automobile production, so from the overall data point of view, the production performance in the first quarter of this year is better, but the actual production pressure is huge, especially in Changchun, Shanghai and other places of automobile production suffered serious losses.
However, total car sales fell in March, but autonomy and new energy are still eye-catching. In March this year, the retail sales of mainland independent brands achieved a year-on-year and month-on-month growth. According to the data of the Association, in March, the retail sales of independent brands were 750,000 vehicles, an increase of 17% year-on-year and a 37% month-on-month increase.
The Association of Passenger Transporters said that the new energy vehicle market was affected by price increases, and the order performance before the price increase was hot, and the overall orders were sufficient. Moreover, the price increase of electric vehicles in 2022 is relatively rational, and consumer acceptance is also high. In terms of the impact of the epidemic, although there are still local sporadic cases of the domestic epidemic, especially in megacities with main sales of new energy such as Shenzhen and Shanghai, the relatively mild epidemic prevention measures in most areas at that time had no obvious impact on residents' travel and car purchase consumption.
Anxin Securities previously pointed out that some new energy vehicle models have opened a new round of price increases, but at present, the car companies have accumulated more unpriced orders, and it is expected that 3-4 months will be mainly to digest orders, followed by high oil prices to bring about the improvement of the cost-effective advantages of new energy vehicles, in addition, high-end new energy vehicle users are mainly increasing purchases, and the consumption capacity and rigid demand are strong.
As a result, we maintained a 22-year sales forecast of 5.65 million new energy passenger vehicles (including 4.18 million pure electric units and 1.47 million plug-in hybrid units). In terms of traditional vehicles, Anxin Securities believes that since the end of 2021, the chip shortage has continued to ease, and with the subsequent epidemic being effectively controlled, the demand for replenishment and the promotion of terminals have increased, and traditional passenger cars are expected to usher in recovery.
CITIC Securities believes that mainstream car companies continue to introduce high-quality models to enhance the industry boom, and the upward trend of the industry is clear. The global new energy vehicle industry chain has entered a stage of rapid growth, and the current point in time continues to recommend seizing the opportunity of high-quality standards in the global electrification supply chain, especially Tesla, Ningde Times, LG Chemical Supply Chain, including:
1. Ningde era, BYD (A+H), Yiwei Lithium Energy, Sunwoda, Penghui Energy, Jingda Shares, Yihuatong, etc.; Lithium Battery Materials' Defang Nano, Tiannai Technology, Putailai, Zhongke Electric, Shanshan Shares, Kodali, Xinzhubang, Xiamen Tungsten, etc., it is recommended to pay attention to Enjie shares, Tianqi materials;
2. Upstream equipment and resources: Ganfeng Lithium, etc., pay attention to Hangke technology and pilot intelligence;
3. Thermal management supply chain: Sanhua Intelligent Control (thermal management), Yinlun Shares (thermal management), Tuopu Group, etc.
Source: Tencent Stocks
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