Author 丨 Yang Jing
Responsible editor 丨 Luo Chao
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
Since the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the national leadership has issued 13 policies to promote automobile consumption so far. Among them, 6 times in 2020, even in 2021, there are 5 times. In fact, since the "car to the countryside" in 2009, the invisible hand of the policy has accelerated automobile consumption.
The automobile industry is the leading industry in China's economy, contributing 15% to the national economy. From a consumer point of view, the importance of the automotive industry is more prominent. In 2021, the retail sales of automobiles reached 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year, accounting for 9.9% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country.
However, the sudden outbreak of the epidemic this year has put the car market under pressure again. In the first quarter, the cumulative retail sales of the national passenger car market were 4.915 million units, down 4.5% year-on-year, and the overall trend was lower than expected. In mid-to-late April, the State Council and the Ministry of Commerce successively issued instructions to encourage automobile consumption, firing the first shot to promote automobile consumption in 2022.
In the first quarter, the sales of traditional fuel vehicles were 3.85 million units, down 18% year-on-year, and the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.070 million units, an increase of 146.6% year-on-year. In recent years, with the rapid development of domestic new energy vehicles, the proportion of traditional fuel vehicles is gradually declining. On the one hand, it is a policy promotion, and on the other hand, it is also the result of consumers voting with banknotes.
Therefore, in the new round of consumption promotion measures to deploy automobiles, home appliances and other key areas of bulk consumption growth, the General Office of the State Council clearly proposed to support the rapid development of new energy vehicles. In the field of fuel vehicles, it is proposed that all localities must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and the incremental indicators of cars that have been implemented to restrict purchases have been gradually increased.
Difficulty in landing is the biggest obstacle
In the "Opinions on Further Releasing Consumption Potential and Promoting the Sustained Recovery of Consumption" issued by the General Office of the State Council, there are mainly the following 4 guiding opinions on automobile consumption:
1. Vigorously develop green consumption: advocate green travel, increase the proportion of urban public buses and trams, rail transit travel, and promote the electrification of public service vehicles. Support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles.
2. Fully tap the consumption potential of counties and townships: focus on automobiles and home appliances, guide enterprises to carry out promotions for rural areas, encourage qualified areas to carry out new energy vehicles and green smart home appliances to go to the countryside, and promote the construction of supporting facilities such as charging piles (stations).
3. Break down barriers to restrictions on consumption: each region shall not add new car purchase restriction measures, and areas that have implemented purchase restrictions will gradually increase the number of automobile incremental indicators and relax the qualification restrictions for car buyers. Establish and improve the management mechanism of the automobile modification industry and accelerate the development of the automobile aftermarket. Completely abolish the policy of restricting the relocation of used cars, and implement inter-provincial measures for the registration of small non-operating used car transactions. Implement refined management of pickup trucks entering the city, and study further relax the restrictions on pickup trucks entering the city.
4. Optimize financial services: Promote commercial banks, auto finance companies, consumer finance companies, etc. to improve their financial service capabilities.
In addition to the first point that needs to be promoted by local utilities, the other three are closely related to the general public consumer. Therefore, the industry has once again interpreted this as a positive signal to the automotive industry. However, such positive information was not reflected in the stock market, and the auto sector fell collectively sharply.
In fact, this year's guidance is not much different from previous years. In comparison, the new energy vehicle subsidies and new energy vehicle purchase tax reductions and exemptions smashed out of the "real money and silver" are the policies that consumers need the most, and these two policies have been clarified until the end of this year, so the stimulus for new energy in the short term is limited.
In the face of rural promotions, new energy vehicles going to the countryside, relaxing purchase restrictions, developing the automobile aftermarket, canceling the restrictions on the relocation of second-hand cars, pickup trucks into the city and auto finance, such as more "virtual" policies, although they were proposed in the first two years, the role of promoting automobile consumption is not obvious enough. On the one hand, it is difficult for local governments to land, and on the other hand, it is not touching consumers.
Taking new energy vehicles going to the countryside as an example, in 2021, the new energy vehicles going to the countryside activities released two batches of recommended models, and 68 models of 24 car companies entered the list, and the vehicles were mainly small and micro cars priced at less than 100,000 yuan and with a mileage of less than 300 kilometers. New energy vehicles going to the countryside only provides a sales channel for car companies, rather than providing subsidy support for consumers.
At present, there are seven major cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Shijiazhuang and Hainan Province that restrict the purchase of automobiles. The transportation pressure of the purchase restriction city is very large, and the increase in vehicles will inevitably cause congestion, which is also a factor for the local government to refuse to relax the purchase restriction conditions from the perspective of urban governance.
In fact, many policies have been promoted in the early stage, but the effect of implementation is not good. Even as policies become clearer, local responses are less positive. Many local governments have formed the inertia of mainly relying on real estate, investment, and infrastructure to drive GDP, and there is little incentive to implement the policies issued by various ministries and commissions without money.
Of course, if you refer to the experience of 2020, there are also some loosening phenomena. Although the coverage of local governments to issue coupons and local car companies to subsidize car purchases is relatively narrow, it is still a big driving force for the development of the car market that does not meet expectations and drives overall consumption.
Consumer confidence is the top priority
However, it needs to be acknowledged that if some of the above policies are more difficult to land, then in some visible places, the construction of automobile-related infrastructure and the simplification of the car purchase process have supported the increase in consumers' willingness to buy cars from the side.
The Ministry of Transport released data on April 26 that 3,102 highway service areas across the country have built charging and replacing infrastructure, and a total of about 13,374 charging piles have been built. Recently, the Ministry of Transport and the National Energy Administration and other departments have drafted an action plan to accelerate the construction of charging infrastructure along the highway, and at present, the action plan is soliciting opinions from all over the world.
After the implementation of the new regulations on motor vehicle registration from May 1, 2022, the license plate of new private cars is exempted from inspection, the registration of passenger cars is registered nationwide, and the vehicle information change is "inter-provincial communication". From the perspective of process and timeliness, it is more convenient and fast, in order to maximize the compression of the process for the benefit of those who need it.
While these policies have had little effect in the short term, the benefits have been long-term. Only for the current severe situation of the automobile industry, all policy stimulus is the role of external forces, in order to promote automobile consumption, the main body of consumers is the core. Only by releasing the consumption potential can the consumer market be activated.
However, due to the influence of the external situation, today's consumers' willingness to spend on cars may not be high. The first is the problem of income decline caused by the epidemic, and there is this year's stock market shock, consumer property income shrinkage, pocket "no money" is the biggest obstacle to the bulk consumption of automobiles.
In addition, various uncertainties have brought new problems to travel, such as rising raw material prices for power batteries, rising fuel prices, shortages of chip supplies, rising prices of new energy vehicles, and multi-point outbreaks of the domestic epidemic. In the face of many unfavorable information, the consumer confidence of the middle-end consumer population has also been frustrated.
It can be said that consumers do not want to buy a car, but also can not afford to buy a car, and can not afford to raise a car.
"The impact of terminal consumer demand on the growth of the automobile industry may be greater than the supply chain difficulties in the short term." Relevant industry insiders judge that according to recent terminal feedback, the number of end consumers booking cars has decreased significantly after the price adjustment of the model. At the same time, consumers have expectations of price reductions, and there may be a delay in demand.
This phenomenon is not only reflected in the automotive sector, in the first two months of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in the country increased by 6.7% year-on-year. However, due to the recent outbreak of domestic epidemics, the total amount of social zero in March turned from growth to 3.5% year-on-year, consumer confidence was sluggish, and the recovery was further under pressure. According to the EY survey, 59% of Chinese consumers believe that their personal financial situation will be better after one year.
The low consumer confidence was evident in April's car sales figures. In the first and second weeks of April, the average daily retail sales of major manufacturers were 24,600 units and 26,700 units, respectively, down 32% and 39% year-on-year, respectively. The Association predicts that the narrow passenger car market will sell around 1.1 million units in April, down 31.9% year-on-year and 30.3% month-on-month.
Although the epidemic is still repeated, residents' consumption expectations are unstable, and lack of confidence exist, there is no doubt that boosting automobile consumption is still the "main theme" this year. At present, Chongqing, Changsha, Zhongshan and other places have introduced or held measures and activities to promote automobile consumers.
In the future, there will be more effective policies to join, which will have a positive effect on automobile consumption.