If you walk to work on a rest day, you can run in about half an hour from 25 kilometers. However, during the morning and evening rush hours, being able to park within an hour is considered a smooth sailing. It is believed that in the first and second tier cities in the country, such a tidal driving experience is repeated every week. According to statistics from the Ministry of Public Security, as of the end of March 2022, the number of motor vehicles in the country reached 402 million, of which 307 million were cars. In 2010, the number of domestic cars was less than 100 million.
The ultra-high-speed development of the domestic automotive industry not only allows cars to fly into more "ordinary people's homes", but also brings a "time and space illusion". For example, fuel on the road, hybrid, plug-in, range, pure electricity, etc., a variety of vehicles are available. They don't seem to be a product of the same era, but they really run together. Even in terms of the largest proportion of fuel vehicles, from the National VI promoted in recent years to the National IV in the period of rapid development, the speed of the entire change is quite fast. At this speed of development, how long can your car accompany you?
China IV + China V accounted for more than 60%?
First of all, we need to figure out a question, what is the composition ratio of more than 300 million cars in China? Let's do a more "extensive" derivation. First of all, at present, the domestic basically "phased out" the national one and two emission standards of the car. That is, the number of cars before 2007 has been basically covered, and this number is about 50 million. Since then, during the implementation of the China III emission standards, the number of domestic cars has increased by about 40 million. This also includes some models that met the National IV emission standards at the time.
Starting from the China IV emission standard, domestic car sales and ownership have begun to increase significantly. During the China IV standard cycle, domestic car ownership increased by about 110 million units. The National V standard does not last long, and the ownership growth is about 20 million vehicles, which also has the same impact on the progress of various regions and car companies on switching to the National VI standard.
That is to say, in theory, the emission standards of China III, China IV and China V have about 220 million vehicles. Considering that the current Models of the China III Emission Standard are basically hovering at 15 years of service life, although the mandatory scrapping rules have been changed, private cars that have reached the age of 15 years also need to be inspected every six months. This test frequency, as well as the detection of emission standards, as well as the restrictions on China III standard models in some areas, etc., have also made many China III car owners choose to change cars. It is estimated that the total ownership of China IV + China V models is about 180-200 million, accounting for about 60-67% of the national car ownership.
After 2025, will you voluntarily change cars?
If your car is still a National III emission standard, if there is still value circulation, you can already consider transferring it to the second-hand car market to maximize the benefits. Of course, if the residual value is too low, the circulation value is lost, or there is no circulation condition objectively, the scrapping process can also be considered. It is reported that at present, the scrapped car with a displacement of 1.35L and above has a subsidy of 18,000 yuan per vehicle. Of course, models that are very collectible or affectionate and well maintained can also be continued to be held in non-first-, second-tier or non-restricted cities.
For most car owners who hold China IV and China V models, the situation is not so "urgent". First of all, in terms of volume, the total sales of domestic cars last year were about 26 million. In addition, since 2018, the domestic automobile market has been in the era of phased stock, so it is estimated that it will not be until 4 years later that the ownership of China VI models can be divided into half and half with China IV + China V.
Secondly, from the perspective of the promotion rhythm of domestic emission standards, we will largely refer to the standard rhythm of Europe. The Euro VII emission standards are expected to be implemented as early as 2025, assuming that the so-called National VII emission standards will also be implemented in 2025, then this time rhythm coincides with the previously mentioned 4 years.
Of course, this does not mean that our National IV and China V models can only be used for another four years. After the abolition of the mandatory scrapping policy, as long as the vehicle is properly maintained, the holding time of private cars can actually be longer than before.
However, if you analyze specifically, the owners of the early National IV emission standard models have been driving their vehicles for more than 10 years, and then pushed back about 4 years, which has touched the 15-year "threshold" mentioned earlier. From the perspective of the domestic car environment and experience, it can be used for 10-15 years, and the private car can also be regarded as "the end of life". Therefore, even according to the fastest rhythm, the impact on this batch of National IV and China V car owners should be small.
For consumers who buy China IV and China V models after 2015, if the total time of vehicle holding is only 10 years according to the "fastest rhythm" derived earlier, it seems a bit of a loss. However, in fact, do not worry too much, according to the previous policy constraints on China II and III, the beginning was mainly "guidance". Especially in the past few days, the executive meeting of the State Council deployed policy measures to promote consumption, emphasizing that it will encourage bulk consumption such as automobiles. Therefore, policy guidance such as replacement subsidies is also a common method.
In addition, in the case of the gradual relaxation of the restrictions on the relocation of second-hand cars, the stock models of China IV and China V can also be transferred from first- and second-tier cities to third- and fourth-tier and below markets, which is also conducive to maximizing the interests of car owners. Even if it is held for a long time, based on previous experience, targeted subsidies will be provided for procedures such as scrapping.
The above is analyzed from a policy perspective, and from a market point of view, it is also prompting you to actively accelerate the frequency of car changes. According to the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0", by 2025, the average fuel consumption level of traditional energy passenger cars (excluding new energy vehicles) will also reach 5.6L/100km. Not to mention the more energy-efficient, richer and more mature hybrids, as well as new energy model options. In the face of high oil price performance, whether to continue to hold old cars or replace new models, I believe that everyone has an account in mind.
In addition to the cost of use, the use of new technologies is also one of the factors that attract consumers to accelerate the replacement of vehicles. For example, according to the "Roadmap 2.0", in 2025, domestic models equipped with L2 and above driver assistance systems will account for half of new car sales. With the promotion of intelligent driving and other scientific and technological functions, the use of intelligent automobiles is expected to be as rapidly improved as before private cars entered thousands of households, thus attracting more stock consumers to replace their "old cars".
Written at the end: 2025 is certainly not the "time node" of the life of China IV and V models. However, in addition to the objective factors of upgrading emissions and fuel consumption standards, just like private cars have broadened our circle of life, the development direction of today's automobiles is no longer simply a means of transportation. These revolutionary changes are tempting existing customers to transform into new products. However, consumers who hold China IV and China V vehicles do not need to worry, and under the increasingly relaxed holding policy, it is much easier to maintain "personality" than before.