"China VI is coming!" A simple 5 words is enough to make the readers of the year boil. There are many reasons, the most important of which is the depreciation of the vehicle brought about by the rapid update of the national standard, and the entanglement when choosing a model: should you choose the national V model with a large discount or the national VI model without preferential treatment?
But now, if you chant "The seventh country is coming!" "How many people will be as excited as they were then?" In fact, this change in attitude may be one of the important reasons for the rapid update of the national emission standard.
A few days ago, the State Council issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction, which clearly stated that it will study and formulate the next stage of light vehicles, heavy vehicle emission standards and oil quality standards, which means that The seventh country will be put on the agenda. In fact, looking back at every domestic emission standard upgrade, there is almost an external driving force, that is, the European standard. In 20 years, we have completed the road of 30 years of emission upgrading in Europe and the United States, which is not only the pride and pride of our country, but also the bitterness and hardship of many users.
For the new phase of the vehicle emission upgrade plan, Europe and the United States and other regions have been stepping up the formulation, there is news that the European VII emission standards or will be formally implemented in 2025. Referring to the previous experience, is it that in the near future, China VII is also about to be launched? It should be known that it has only been less than half a year since the full implementation of the strictest country VI in history began. Euro VII. emission standards require vehicle nitrogen oxide emissions to be reduced to 30mg/km, and carbon monoxide emissions will be reduced from 500 to 1000mg/km to 100~300mg/km. Higher difficulty and stricter standards mean that car companies have greater challenges. In contrast, if the country wants to keep up with the European standard, consumers will also bear greater pressure and losses.
For a simple example, suppose a consumer bought a car last year when china vi was fully implemented, and the residual value of the vehicle by 2025 is about 60% calculated according to the general depreciation rate of used cars. However, if the National VII standard is updated, the residual value will further decline, which is equivalent to the higher the price of the car, the more the loss. Moreover, the renewal of emission standards once every four years is bound to cause some problems to a certain extent, making it difficult for consumers to decide whether to buy a car.
Because the update and iteration of emission standards is fast, so we switch to the new energy camp, and we cannot guarantee whether there will be this layer of meaning in the updated iteration of emission standards. From the enterprise side, even if there is no promotion of emission policies, the market does want to go from the direction of power diversification, even if there are not many car companies that completely bet on new energy, multi-dimensional development is bound to become the mainstream. Secondly, from the market side, the new energy market share is also rising, and more and more consumers are beginning to enter the new energy field, and this is still under the premise of the polarization of supply on the product side, imperfect market support, and limited battery development. It is not difficult to foresee that this year and even in recent years, in the future of continuous development of science and technology and continuous improvement of supporting facilities, the new energy market will be greatly expanded.
To be sure, there is a common goal between the renewal of emission standards and the development of new energy sources – low carbon. When the country sets the goal of carbon neutrality, the macro-control of the market is bound to move closer to the low-carbon direction, from the passenger car to the commercial vehicle market without exception. And from the perspective of greenhouse gases, energy conservation and emission reduction, the future emission supervision will become more and more stringent, and there will be higher level of emission supervision requirements after the National VI standard.
Perhaps from the final goal, the end of the emission standard is to cancel the emission standard, when all models will be converted to new energy vehicles. However, as far as the current development of new energy is concerned, it is not realistic to achieve this step, so the arrival of China VII is only a matter of delay or early.
From the perspective of policies, trends and environmental protection, the higher requirements of emission standards are beneficial and harmless. However, in the process of development, we cannot ignore the discordant voices, such as the opposition of the market side and the consumer side. As mentioned above, the rapid iteration of emission standards will cause some car companies to disconnect technology and further losses in the hands of consumers. To the larger, the car company disconnect will be eliminated because it can not build a model that meets the regulations, and to a smaller extent, the second-hand car market will depreciate, people will sit at home, and the loss will come up.
In fact, it is more likely to appear the chaos of the industry. Recall that the implementation of China VI is carried out in two stages, precisely so that disjointed car companies can keep up with the progress. But in fact, the ranks of passenger cars have barely kept up, and the ranks of commercial vehicles have problems such as "delicate" vehicles, services that cannot keep up, and imperfect infrastructure. Therefore, changing emission standards too quickly is bound to bring chaos. In order to eliminate this part of the stability factor, it is required that when formulating or implementing higher emission standards, we must proceed from reality, be more rational, be less blind, listen to the "voice" of the entire industrial chain, and not harm the interests of the whole industry for the sake of local interests.
During the two sessions of the National People's Congress in 2021, Xu Yanni, a deputy to the National People's Congress, mentioned the proposal to delay the implementation of the National VII emission standards. She believes that the implementation of the China VII emission standards in China should be no earlier than 2033. Xu Yanni gave the reason that from China I to China VI, the domestic emission upgrade speed exceeds that of European and American countries, but on the basis of technical reserves and automobile industry, it is far behind them, and the transition from China VI to China VII needs to leave enough time for domestic car companies, engine companies and parts companies to overcome difficulties at the same time, but also to alleviate the anxiety of truck drivers about the rapid upgrading of emissions, so that vehicles have a longer service life. So what are your views on the change of China VII emission standards in front of the screen?
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