2022 Auto Parts Industry Research Report (with download)

Lead

The penetration rate of new energy continues to increase, and mileage anxiety has become the core concern of consumers.

Source: Soochow Securities Author: Huang Xili

1 Energy saving and emission reduction + battery life anxiety to promote the process of lightweighting

Under the trend of energy saving and emission reduction + electrification, lightweight is an important trend

With the promotion of policies, the standards of energy conservation and emission reduction have been continuously improved. "Energy conservation and emission reduction" has become the main theme of the mainland's economic development. The automotive sector is the focus of promoting energy conservation and emission reduction. In 2020, the Society of Automotive Engineers of China organized industry experts to revise and compile the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Route 2.0", which made specific requirements for the fuel consumption of new passenger cars, and the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars in 2025/2030/2035 needed to reach 4.6, 3.2, 2.0L/100km, and the energy-saving and emission-reduction standards continued to be upgraded.

The penetration rate of new energy continues to increase, and mileage anxiety has become the core concern of consumers. With the dual boost of policy + market, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has increased rapidly, from 2.7% in January 2020 to 20% in November 2021, and with the continuous expansion of the share of new energy vehicles, related problems have gradually become prominent. In 2021, the "China Automobile Dealers Association" released the article "How to crack the mileage anxiety of new energy vehicles?" According to the results of the association's interview and survey on the experience of new energy vehicle owners, the most concerned problem for users when purchasing is "battery endurance", accounting for 31.8%, and mileage anxiety has become the core focus of consumers buying new energy vehicles.

The quality of the three-electric system of new energy vehicles has increased, and the demand for cruising range has brought about the demand for lightweight. Compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles reduce the engine and gearbox, but increase the three electric (motor, electronic control, battery) system, the energy density of the battery power system is lower than the fuel system, so the quality of the new energy vehicle is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles. The description of the mileage of new energy vehicles has increased the demand for lightweight vehicles.

Lightweight helps energy saving and emission reduction, and aluminum alloy materials have the best cost performance. For every 10% reduction in the weight of the car, up to 5-10% of the fuel can be saved, and for every 100kg reduction in the curb weight, the fuel consumption of 100 kilometers can be reduced by 0.3-0.6L, and the CO2 emissions can be reduced by 8.5g/km, so lightweight has become a key development technology in the field of energy conservation and emission reduction. At the same time, in different lightweight materials, comparing a variety of metal alloys and carbon fibers, aluminum alloys have advantages in many aspects such as performance, density and price, and are the most lightweight materials with a price-to-price ratio.

2 The increase in the amount of aluminum alloy has promoted the increase in demand for structural parts

The technical threshold of aluminum alloy body structural parts is higher and there are fewer players. Compared with small parts, three-electric systems and lightweight chassis systems, the product structure of body junction components is relatively thin, the average wall thickness is only 2.5 to 3mm, and the parts are large and easy to deform. The strength requirements for parts are also very high, so it has a high technical threshold, and at present, only the front beam, the left and right door frames, the shock absorbing tower, the tail cover box, the longitudinal beam and other parts can be produced by die casting process. Other body structures are more made of high-strength steel materials through stamping, bending, welding, etc., so there are relatively few suppliers who have entered the field of die casting of body structural parts. (Source: Future Think Tank)

The use of aluminum alloy in white bodies has become a trend, and the demand for structural parts has increased significantly. With the increasing demand for lightweight, the demand for aluminum alloy body-in-white has migrated from luxury vehicles to mid-range cars, and the demand for aluminum alloy structural parts has increased significantly. In addition to the die-casting process, stamping, welding, riveting, etc. are also aluminum alloy body-in-white production processes.

High pressure + fast filling, high pressure die casting has a very high production efficiency. High-pressure casting is a casting method in which the molten non-ferroalloy liquid is poured into the press chamber, the cavity of the steel mold is filled at high speed, and the alloy liquid is solidified under pressure to form a casting. Suitable for manufacturing parts with large volume, complex structure, high surface quality requirements and fast mass manufacturing speed. For the die casting machine, the clamping force requirements are generally above 1200T, and the metal solution fills the mold at high speed under high pressure, and the production efficiency is high.

It has several advantages and is suitable for automotive parts manufacturing. The advantages of high-pressure die casting include: 1) high pressure molding, high product density, high product strength and surface hardness, but low elongation of the product; 2) good surface finish of the product; 3) can produce thin-walled parts, aluminum die-casting wall thickness up to 0.5mm, suitable for body structural parts.

3 Equipment/materials/processes work together to promote the emergence of integrated die casting

Die casting size/weight increases, requiring larger tonnage die casting machines. For the die-casting process of automotive parts of different sizes, different tonnage die casting machines are required to achieve this. According to the calculation of the disclosure data of various enterprises, from the aluminum alloy small shell (upper limit 1600T) to the body knot components (shock absorbing cylinder / longitudinal beam / A / B column, etc.) (upper limit 4400T), the clamping force of the required press is continuously improved, and the general high-pressure die casting machine is between 1000-4400T. If you need to cast a larger volume of product, you need a larger tonnage die casting machine fit.

The equipment company launched a large tonnage die casting machine to provide technical support for the die casting of large-size body structural parts. In 2017, Edra (a subsidiary of Lide) announced the world's first 5500T die-casting machine; in November 2019, LK Group took the lead in releasing the world's first super tonnage press with a clamping force of 6000T; in March 2021, Idera announced that it had obtained the world's first order for an 8,000T die-casting machine; in April 2021, LK Group released the world's first 9000T die-casting machine. In addition, including Haitian, Yizumi and other die casting machine companies have launched more than 7000T die casting machine products, and major die casting machine manufacturing enterprises have made equipment reserves for die casting technology upgrades.

4 Tesla leads, and car companies + supply chains follow up

Product simplification + safety improvement + efficiency improvement + cost reduction + precision controllable push Tesla to try integrated die casting technology

Tesla introduced integrated die-casting technology to simplify the Model Y baseplate structure. In September 2020, on Tesla's "Battery Day", Maske introduced that the Model Y product will use an integrated die-casting backplane assembly, which replaces the traditional body manufacturing stamping + welding method, and streamlines more than 70 parts of the entire back plate into a one-piece molding through a large die-casting machine with a clamping force of 6000T, and then plans to replace the car body assembly of 370 parts with 2-3 large die castings.

The new technology effectively reduces weight and improves vehicle safety. According to Tesla's disclosure, the Model Y integrated die-cast body weighs 66 kg, which is 10-20 kg lighter than the same part of the smaller Model 3, and the integral molding of the parts can better withstand the impact force when corresponding to the collision, improving the skeleton safety of the body.

Sales are climbing rapidly, bringing about the demand for improved production efficiency. As the world's leading new energy vehicle, Tesla's sales are rapidly increasing, according to our forecasts that global sales are expected to reach 4.5 million in 2025, and CAGR will reach 46% in 2021-2025. Because the global plant construction schedule is not as expected, the rapid growth of sales has brought about the demand for improved production efficiency.

Effectively improve the production cycle + reduce costs. The new integrated die-casting technology allows Tesla body-in-white connection points to be reduced from 700-800 to 50, the parts manufacturing time is greatly shortened from hours to tens of minutes, greatly simplifying the manufacturing process, improving production efficiency, compared with the traditional body manufacturing "stamping + welding" process, integrated die-casting has the advantages of lightweight, number of parts and welding process steps, personnel and land savings, etc., which can greatly save the cost of car manufacturing.

The manufacturing process is precisely controllable and the body size maintenance costs are extremely low. The traditional body-in-white punching process, a car is composed of 500 + parts, the total number of 4000-6000 solder joints in the whole vehicle, the accumulation of parts size error requires a lot of time to debug (three wheels, 6 months), integrated die casting because the manufacturing process is minimalist, the manufacturing accuracy is controllable, and the vehicle size debugging time and cost are greatly reduced.

The California factory took the lead in piloting, and the world's four major super factories were fully laid out. In August 2020, Tesla's "Fremont" plant in California took the lead in installing Idera's 6000T super die casting machine, and manufactured the back plate part of the Model Y model through an integrated die casting process. The rear baseplate was chosen because: 1) the 6000T die casting machine can only guarantee the die casting of parts of this volume; 2) the position is the position of the conventional fuel tank, and the chance of collision damage is small. After the successful trial production, Tesla purchased 13 sets of 6000T super die casting machines from Lijin Group, and comprehensively laid out integrated die casting equipment in 4 super factories around the world, and the Shanghai factory has completed the installation and commissioning of 3 sets of equipment.

The casting pressure has gradually escalated, and the processing of parts + models has been continuously expanded. In addition to the rear assembly, Tesla plans to manufacture the front body of the Model Y through integrated die casting at its Texas and Pauline plants. At its fourth-quarter earnings meeting in March 2020, Tesla announced that it had ordered an 8,000T die-casting machine to produce the rear assembly of the large truck CyberTruck.

A number of car companies follow up on integrated die casting, and the market space is vast. Because of the excellent performance of integrated die casting technology in terms of efficiency, safety and cost reduction, it has received strong attention from the market. According to the disclosure of Lijin Group, in 2022, it will deliver super die casting machines suitable for integrated die casting to six Chinese car companies. According to our calculations, with the increase in the penetration rate of integrated die casting technology, the market space is expected to reach 38.9 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR in 2021-2025 will reach 205%.

The automotive supply chain followed up in a timely manner, and the new power models were determined to adopt integrated die casting. In May 2021, Wencan purchased two sets of 6000T die-casting machine equipment from Lijin Group, becoming the second company with a 6000T press in addition to Tesla. The company obtained the integrated die casting order related to Weilai Automobile and Ideal Automobile, and plans to purchase a 9000T die casting machine to further deepen its layout in the field of integrated die casting. In addition, die casting enterprises such as Echodi, Tuopu, and Guangdong Hongtu have also purchased large-tonnage die casting equipment to lay out the integrated die casting field.

Wencan shares - lightweight body structural parts first mover advantage

The leading supplier of precision die casting parts for automotive aluminum alloy in China, acquired France Bailian to form a complete die casting process. Headquartered in Huizhou, the company was established in 1998 and has wholly-owned subsidiaries in Nantong/Yixing, Jiangsu Province, and Tianjin, and was officially listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in April 2018. After more than 20 years of development, it has formed an aluminum alloy die-cast parts group dominated by automotive engine systems, transmission systems, chassis systems, braking systems, body structural parts and other systems. After the company completed the acquisition of the French Bailian Group in 2020, it formed a complete process of high-pressure/low-pressure/heavy-pressure casting.

Acquisitions have driven revenue growth, and the proportion of automotive die casting business has continued to increase. The proportion of non-automotive die castings declined, and the proportion of mold business fluctuated. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved revenue of 2.965 billion yuan, an increase of 103.60% year-on-year. Mainly due to the completion of the merger and acquisition of France Bailian Group, its consistent stable operation and superposition of integration and synergy effects have brought good performance recovery. With the energy-saving and emission-reduction policy + electrification drive, the acceleration of automobile lightweighting, and the continuous increase in the body structure parts business, the automotive die casting parts business is expected to continue to expand.

Complete the global production capacity layout, and continuously expand the product category. The company is headquartered in Foshan, Guangdong Province, and has wholly-owned subsidiaries in Nantong, Jiangsu, Yixing, Jiangsu and Tianjin, realizing the rational layout of the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim region. At the same time, the company's subsidiary France Bailian has 10 production bases in Mexico, China (Wuhan, Dalian), France, Hungary and other countries, and the company has completed the layout of global production bases. The product category also expands from the original traditional power system die-casting products to chassis structural parts, brake parts and other categories.

Body structural parts have the advantage of being the first mover, and the proportion of revenue of structural parts that is driven by the popularization of lightweighting continues to increase. Due to the support and impact resistance of the car, the body structural parts have extremely high requirements for strength, elongation and weldability, and the material preparation and die casting are very difficult. The production process combines various technical capabilities such as materials, molds and processes (die casting process and heat treatment process), including many know-how, so the technical barriers are high. Including: 1) mold design and development; 2) high vacuum die casting process accumulation; 3) material preparation technology; 4) heat treatment process, etc. The company has been continuously developing and improving vacuum die casting technology for many years, accumulating rich technology and experience for the lightweight of body structural parts, and has a first-mover advantage in aluminum alloy die casting body. With the continuous popularization of lightweight, the proportion of revenue of body structural parts products has continued to increase.

Xusheng co., LTD. - three electric system supplier layout integrated die casting

China's leading supplier of lightweight aluminum alloy die castings, with three major processing processes. After more than 20 years of development, it has formed an enterprise group dominated by aluminum alloy die-casting parts and components of new energy vehicle transmission system, transmission system, battery system, suspension system and other core systems, with three major processes of die casting, forging and extrusion.

The automated production equipment is advanced, and the core team has rich experience in industry operation. The company's casting and forging factory has introduced the world's top level continuous casting equipment and hot die forging equipment, and has established its own core technical team by hiring well-known experts at home and abroad, cultivating and introducing senior professionals.

The automotive business is mainly expected to continue to maintain a high growth rate. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved revenue of 2.012 billion yuan, and the revenue in the first three quarters increased by 82.10% year-on-year. In 2014, the company signed a contract with Tesla, and the company's revenue benefited from Tesla's continuous increase. With the endorsement of Tesla, the company has successfully expanded new domestic and foreign vehicles, parts and power battery customers. The popularity of new energy vehicles will increase the demand for lightweight parts, and the company's revenue is expected to continue to grow at a high speed.

Tesla triple electric system supplier, battery box process is expected to be integrated die casting upgrade. 2021H1 Revenue from Tesla accounted for 40.37% of the company's revenue, and the main products were aluminum alloy die-casting products for the three-electric system. The current main process of the battery box in the three electric system is aluminum extrusion + laser welding + friction stir welding, with the gradual maturity of the integrated die casting process led by Tesla, it is expected to upgrade in the direction of integrated die casting, thereby further improving the quality and production efficiency of the product.

Ecodi - small and medium-sized aluminum die casting faucet, into the field of integrated die casting

China's leading professional supplier of automotive aluminum alloy precision die castings. Mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of automotive aluminum alloy precision die castings, it was established in December 2003 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in November 2017. The main products include automotive wiper system, automotive transmission system, automotive steering system, automotive engine system, new energy vehicle three-electric system and other aluminum alloy precision die castings that meet the needs of automobile lightweight, energy saving and environmental protection.

The aluminum die casting industry subdivision categories are fully competitive, and the leading enterprises in small and medium-sized aluminum alloys in the world. According to data from the China Foundry Association, there are more than 3,000 die casting enterprises in the mainland in recent years, most of which are relatively small in scale and the competition pattern is scattered. The number of die casting enterprises in developed countries is small and large. Subdividing aluminum die casting parts large and small parts, Ikodi adheres to the product route of small and medium-sized automotive aluminum alloy precision die casting parts with strong technicality, complex process and high added value, and is a leading enterprise in aluminum alloy small and medium-sized parts in the world.

Customer resources are high quality and stable, and strict certification standards raise the threshold of access. Ecodi sales adopts the direct sales model, and the business balance covers the developed regions of the automotive industry in the Americas/Europe/Asia, and the customers are mainly first-tier suppliers in the global automotive industry chain, including Valeo, Bosch, Magna, Densan, Nexteer, etc. Due to the high safety requirements of the whole vehicle and the high threshold for access to parts, Bethel has been actively involved in the early research and development of customer products, forming a virtuous circle of continuous improvement of the company's research and development quality and brand trust.

Introduced large tonnage die casting machine, and expanded to large structural parts + integrated die casting business. In August 2021, the company established the New Energy Vehicle Division to support the company's new product expansion needs from the organizational structure level. According to the environmental impact assessment information of the project, the company intends to purchase 45 die-casting machines. Among them, there are 4 sets of 4400T, 2 sets of 6100T and 2 sets of 8400T die casting machines. The weight of the body structure product (rear bottom plate) reaches 40kg, which is a greater improvement than the existing small and medium-sized product specifications.

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