At the beginning of 2022, a heavy news attracted the attention of many people in the automotive industry, and on January 24, the State Council issued a notice on the "14th Five-Year Plan" comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction. The "Notice" clearly states that the energy conservation and emission reduction policy mechanism will be improved, among which, in terms of improving laws and regulations, it is mentioned that the next stage of light vehicles, heavy vehicle emission standards and oil quality standards will be studied and formulated.
If there is no accident, this means that the formulation of the National VII emission policy is officially put on the agenda, although it is still only planned and far from the implementation time, but it can also make people in the industry feel a sense of urgency. Compared with the national five liters of the country six, the upgrade difficulty of the national seven emissions is not at a level at all, and even many people in the industry predict that the implementation of the national seven may change the internal combustion engine-based automotive industry, and in fact, the status of the internal combustion engine as the main power system of the automobile is also constantly shaken by the new energy power system.
Perhaps there is no need to wait for the implementation of the seventh country, the new energy power system and the traditional internal combustion engine power system will be on an equal footing.
What is the difficulty of China VII?
Back to the issue of China VII emissions, why everyone cares about the formulation of China VII emission policies, mainly because the emission standards are too strict, and it will have a greater impact on the industrial chain and vehicle performance.
Since 2001, the National Bureau of Standards officially promulgated GB17691-2001 "Vehicle Compression Engine Exhaust Pollutant Emission Limits and Measurement Methods", the domestic vehicle emission policy officially entered the national era, the time to 2021, the domestic emission standards officially entered the national six era, China only took a short 20 years, to catch up with the mainstream European emission standards.
Although China's emissions upgrade rate exceeds that of European and American countries, this does not mean that China VI will upgrade China VII as quickly.
As we all know, the formulation of domestic emission standards is largely based on European emission standards, and the emission technology route also has Europe and the United States as a reference object, and the upgrading of countries one to six can be carried out smoothly. But in the seventh country, the problem is not so simple.
The first is how to set, what are the standards? At this point, we can refer to the Euro 7 standard, which requires the carbon monoxide emissions of the exhaust gas to be reduced from the current 500-1000mg/km to 100-300mg/km, while the nitrogen oxide emissions must be reduced to 30mg/km, which is expected to be implemented in 2025. At present, the limit of National VI carbon monoxide implemented in China is 500mg/km, and the emission of nitrogen oxides is 35mg/km.
From the data point of view, the future Euro VII standard and the mainland's current National VI standard in the value of pollutants is not small, according to our customs, the National VII emission standard may be stricter than Euro VII, which puts forward higher requirements for the technology of major manufacturers. More importantly, the time span of Euro VI-EUR VII upgrades may be as long as 11 years, which is longer than any previous emission upgrade, which is enough to prove that it is difficult to achieve Euro 7 emissions. It is difficult to imagine the difficulty of the development of China VII and whether the technical reserves of domestic manufacturers are sufficient.
Before the introduction of the Euro VII emission standards, some insiders have revealed that the Euro VII emission standards are challenging the limits of the internal combustion engine, and the cleanliness of the gases emitted is close to the air. However, in order to meet such strict standards, the input-output ratio of research and development may not be satisfactory, and some people also believe that Euro 7 may become the biggest obstacle to the development of internal combustion engines.
Then back to the national seven emission standards, the difficulty should also be quite large, followed by the problem of technical realization, the national seven can not be like the national five upgrade of the national six, in the reprocessing system on the line, but the real system engineering, need to be from the engine intake, oil supply, combustion, airframe, exhaust aftertreatment and other aspects of comprehensive improvement, in addition to electronic control will also reach a new height.
For the national seven standards, there are also experimental products in China
In the face of such stringent emission standards, domestic manufacturers also have corresponding test products or technical reserves, such as Weichai's world's first ontology thermal efficiency 50.23% commercial diesel engine released in 2020, the world's first body thermal efficiency 51.09% diesel engine released in 2022, and the engine brought by Jiefang Power at the 2020 Guangzhou International Auto Show.
○ Figure丨Weichai power body thermal efficiency 51.09% diesel engine
○ Figure丨 Liberation Power "ultra-low emission" engine
According to the data, Weichai's 51% thermal efficiency diesel engine can reduce fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions by 10% respectively; while the NOx weighted emissions of the "ultra-low emission" engine of Jiefang Power are 0.018g/kW·h, which is 95% lower than the National VI standard.
The formulation of the National VII standard has been put on the agenda, so what about the implementation time? The information that can be seen so far is 2025 or 2033, and I prefer the latter.
At that time, the domestic power system form is expected to undergo huge changes, perhaps no longer the internal combustion engine dominates, more areas will be new energy power into, from this point of view, for domestic commercial vehicle manufacturers is also an opportunity, after all, in the field of new energy, the domestic level of development is still relatively leading. (Text/Chen Fengchuan)