ask:
Why not choose an electric car or a plug-in hybrid car, what else does a fuel car attract you?
It is believed that after the ownership of new energy vehicles exceeded the 10 million mark (10.33 million vehicles), most drivers are no longer exclusive of electric drive technology, and they have more opportunities to contact electric drives; once they have driven such cars, their feelings for fuel vehicles will inevitably disappear.
Because the acceleration of the fuel vehicle is accompanied by annoying sound waves (noise), there is a high probability of setbacks in the shifting process, and the core assembly such as the engine, transmission, and cooling system is required to maintain the engine, transmission, cooling system and other core assemblies in the process of using the car, which is troublesome and costly; but it is always higher than the cost of refueling, fuel as a non-renewable fossil fuel is used less, and the price will naturally become higher and higher.
However, the cost of electric drive car charging commuting is very low, because of the low price of electricity, electricity is renewable energy, the future will be very low; at the same time, the motor has no wear, noise or high temperature and other issues, the use experience and life are very ideal, high speed and high efficiency characteristics determine the need for transmissions, vehicle maintenance costs will be very low.
At the same time, the motor also has the absolute advantage of low torque and high explosive force, and the power can also be very high.
It seems that the experience of electric drives is far superior to that of fuel vehicles, but why do many consumers dare not choose these two types of models?
The reason is that the retention rate of electric or plug-in hybrid cars is currently relatively low, but the retention rate curve of these two types of cars is rising, and the retention rate of fuel vehicles will inevitably collapse in the near future.
What factors determine the retention rate of a car?
It's not the quality of the vehicle, it's not the performance and energy consumption, it's not the configuration and design, it's "which old cars are more".
Or understand which cars are selling hot, because only if there are more hot cars, there will be enough old cars to enter the second-hand car market; on the contrary, the number of vehicles with sluggish sales in the second-hand market will be very small, in exchange for you being a car dealer, which cars will you choose to hype?
There is no doubt to hype up more cars, suppose you collect 100 old cars a month, 90 of which are old cars of some popular brands, the quality is very poor but a lot; the remaining 10 are of higher quality, but the hype out of these 10 cars and sell high prices, the remaining 90 are not smashed in the hand... Therefore, we can only package brands with large quantities and make these cars profitable in order to make the market run.
The core factor that determines the size of the ownership of old cars is of course the production and sales of new cars, which determines that the retention rate of fuel-powered second-hand cars will collapse in the future; the market share of joint venture cars and domestic cars at this stage is "half to half", European, American, Japanese and Korean systems account for half of the total, domestic cars account for half, but once there were more joint venture cars, and now the second-hand car market is still more joint venture cars.
This is a very interesting phenomenon, the joint venture car used cars so the retention rate is high, but why do high-quality cars have so many sources?
Didn't think about it.
Empathetic thinking, the car you choose has high quality, a good driving experience, low enough fuel consumption and strong enough power, so why do you have to change cars frequently? Obviously, it is not needed. On the contrary, the car will be changed in a shorter period, the reason is basically that the quality of the vehicle is too low, affecting the use experience and the cost of use, so it has to be changed.
Therefore, in the second-hand car market, the larger the ownership and the smaller the average age of the car brand, its vehicle quality is basically poor enough; these cars can only rely on forced packaging, as well as brand packaging in the new car market to attract consumers, of which there are some cultural factors related to "Chongyang".
This determines that even if there is no wave of car electrification, the retention rate evaluation model of second-hand cars will inevitably change; because the cultural renaissance has allowed more and more people to regain self-confidence, can rationally see excellent Chinese manufacturing, and take off colored glasses in the face of Chinese brands. Joint venture cars gradually lose their heat in the process of this ideological change, the brand can not guarantee the sales of new cars, and the joint venture brand culture in the second-hand car market will collapse rapidly; at that time, these vehicles that are not high enough in quality will be replaced by excellent domestic cars with high enough quality but few vehicles, at this time there will be a panic sell-off of the first round of joint venture old cars.
What changes will the popularity of electric vehicles bring?
Many countries in Europe and the United States have announced the "fuel vehicle suspension plan", and there are also relevant information transmitted on the Internet in China; fuel vehicles are expected to gradually stop production and stop selling between 2025 and 203, pay attention to the key points: stop production and stop selling, but will not directly stop using, the fuel vehicle purchased at the last node can also be used all the time, as long as it can pass the test normally, there is no mandatory scrapping requirement for cars, unless the mileage reaches 600,000 kilometers will be guided to scrap.
However, when the ownership of electric vehicles fell after the 10 million mark, 20 million, 30 million... The pace of step-by-step breakthroughs will only speed up.
Because people like to "taste the early", when the first person to eat crab says that crab is delicious, most people will have doubts; but when 10, 100, 1000 people try and give, or most people give praise, people will no longer question, at this time there will be a new "trend direction with the current", the market choice direction is unstoppable, and will snowball rapid growth.
At that time, fuel vehicles have become a niche, electric vehicles have begun to iterate in batches, and more and more electric and plug-in hybrid cars appear in the second-hand market; then second-hand car dealers will have to put part of their energy on the packaging of this batch of cars, and then synthesize the popularity of the new car market, and the demand for old electric vehicles by second-hand car consumers will become larger and larger, and its retention rate will naturally become higher and higher.
Fuel vehicles and electric drives will not coexist in the end, it must be "who eliminates whom".
Then the rise in the retention rate of electric drives will inevitably be accompanied by the decline in the retention rate of fuel vehicles, at this time, fuel vehicle users will adjust or shorten the replacement cycle in order to reduce losses, and batches of fuel vehicles have begun to panic sell, in the face of pieces of fuel vehicles with an appraisal price and scrap iron price, I am afraid that you will not use it, then the former retention rate model will collapse in a short period of time.
In summary, the number of electric drive cars exceeding the mark of 10 million is a crucial node, before 10 million, the state is like "ECO · slow throttle", after the breakthrough will switch to SPORT mode and "floor oil acceleration"; the retention rate does not need to worry, as long as the ownership is large enough, the second-hand car market will complete the adjustment of the retention rate in a short period of time.
It is just that the retention rate of fuel vehicles is destined to decline, if there is a car replacement plan in recent years, it is recommended to shorten the cycle to a certain extent; businesses engaged in second-hand car operations should also reasonably control risks, in some first-tier or new first-tier cities with a large amount of new energy vehicles, the best-selling second-hand cars are already new energy vehicles, and the inventory of second-hand fuel vehicles needs to be controlled.