On April 11, the Automobile Market Research Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association (ACFTU) released the March National Passenger Car Market Analysis Report. Retail sales of the passenger car market reached 1.579 million units in March 2022, down 10.5% y/y and 25.6% month-on-month. From January to March, the cumulative retail sales were 4.915 million units, down 4.5% year-on-year and 230,000 units year-on-year, and the overall trend was lower than expected.
The rebound of the epidemic has had a significant impact on luxury brands
The automobile market should have been "spring breeze" in March, but because of a wave of epidemic rebound in the middle and late stage of the month, it was clouded with a layer of haze. Among them, the impact on mainstream luxury brands is larger, with 230,000 luxury car retail units in March, down 14% year-on-year and 43% month-on-month. Entering March, luxury cars have strengthened significantly year-on-year, but since the third week of March, the epidemic control of mainstream brand production and main sales areas has plummeted, and the impact on the overall data is also more obvious.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said: "Since mid-March, from Changchun to Shanghai, there has been an extremely serious static state of production and life, which has brought extremely serious impacts to some manufacturers. In particular, the production of joint ventures and luxury cars has suffered huge losses, including luxury car brands such as Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, which have suffered serious losses, and the output is seriously lower than expected. ”
The proportion of independent brands has increased significantly
In March, 750,000 self-owned brand retail units were sold, up 17% year-on-year and 37% month-on-month. The domestic retail share of independent brands in March was 48.2%, an increase of 11.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the cumulative share from January to March was 48%, an increase of 9.7 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021.
The reason is that the independent brand new energy models are the greatest, of which BYD, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Chery, and GAC Aean are represented, and their new energy models account for about 25% of the sales of their own brands. At the same time, the performance of traditional fuel vehicles of independent brands can not be underestimated, and the promotion of brand image, the accumulation of word of mouth and the upgrading of products have prompted more consumers to choose their own brands and be more rational when choosing cars.
In contrast, the mainstream joint venture brands have different degrees of year-on-year decline, of which the German brand is the most serious, although the traditional fuel vehicles of the north and south Volkswagen can still fight, and they have also shown their determination in the transformation of new energy, but in terms of new energy, they still do not have an advantage in product strength with independent brands, the brand premium is large, coupled with the serious reduction of production caused by the epidemic, the proportion of this month has dropped by 7 percentage points.
Cui Dongshu of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers said: "Judging from the comparative data of the global automotive industry, the shortage of global automotive chips has not only not brought too much loss to the development of Chinese car companies, but in the common predicament of global car companies, due to the strong self-help of Chinese independent car companies and the coordination of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, they have obtained super market results; under the background of the soaring lithium price, China's independent brands have faced difficulties and achieved a good performance of super sales growth." ”
Price increases and the epidemic have difficulty in stopping the strong momentum of new energy models
Retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 445,000 units in March, up 137.6% year-on-year and 63.1% month-on-month. Domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to March were 1.070 million units, up 146.6% year-on-year.
The new energy market environment in March is complex, affected by the sharp rise in costs, the news of product price increases of various manufacturers is endless, because most of them have set a buffer period, in order to save costs, consumers' enthusiasm for car purchases has been stimulated, forming a wave of strong growth. Although it was also affected by the epidemic, the control measures at that time were relatively mild, and the impact was not obvious under the stimulation of the price increase.
At the same time, the sales of new energy models are mostly based on the order model, and car companies have a large number of undelivered orders in their hands, so the impact on overall sales is not large. On the other hand, the sharp rise in oil prices has also played a role in promoting the growth of new energy models, taking into account the advantages of oil and electricity, plug-in hybrid models have grown significantly, diverting some of the demand for traditional fuel vehicles.
The market environment has suddenly changed, especially affected by external factors in March this year, but the overall performance is still firm, and some positive signals have been released: the impact of chip shortage is relatively weakened, the strength of independent brand savings, and the good momentum of new energy models will bring stronger growth space after clearing the haze. Looking ahead to April, the situation is still not very optimistic, and retail sales in the auto market are expected to be significantly lower than in March.