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Producer: Electric Planet News
Author: Yu Fei
This morning, the Association released an analysis of the national passenger car sales market for March. The most prominent figure is 28.2 percent.
28.2% refers to the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in March, in other words, for every 3.5 new cars sold in March, there is one new energy source (including plug-in hybrid and pure electricity).
That's a number that's enough to shut up all electric blacks.
In addition, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy in March also reached a record high of 25.1%, which is equivalent to 1 new energy in every 4 wholesale cars, while the wholesale penetration rate of new energy in March last year was only 11.1%; the new energy retail penetration rate in the same period was only 10.6%, less than half of this year.
(Wholesale sales refer to the sales volume supplied by car companies to dealers, and retail sales refer to the sales volume that is finally handed over to consumers)
On April 1, we predicted with a slight optimism in our monthly delivery report that "the penetration rate of new energy can also exceed 25% throughout this year, and in a certain month of the fourth quarter, we may be able to witness that for every 3 vehicles sold, there will be one new energy vehicle."
Compared with today's report of the Association of Passenger Vehicles, we are obviously pessimistic, it seems that in the first half of this year, 1/3 of the monthly new energy penetration rate can be achieved - this is still in the context of the price increase of electric vehicles in the beginning of the year.
Even the actual development speed of new energy vehicles far exceeds the planning of the National Development and Reform Commission.
In 2020, the General Office of the State Council of China issued the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", which mentioned that by 2025, the annual sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 20% of the total sales volume of the market, that is, there will be one new energy for every 5 vehicles sold.
The truth is, we may be able to nearly double the planned goals three years in advance.
Today, riding on the new energy penetration rate of the new energy peak, we ask a few bolder questions:
This year, the monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland has no chance to exceed 35%, or even 40%? Can the annual penetration rate reach 33%, that is, in 2022, will there be a new energy for every 3 vehicles sold?
If you want to predict the development of penetration rate, you must first review several key "popularization nodes" of new energy vehicles in the mainland.
One, 5%, the starting point of popularization
2018 is the first year of delivery of new cars, NIO ES8 and Xiaopeng G3 both began to deliver this year, and "electric vehicles" are also more called "smart electric vehicles" at the beginning of this year.
Also in this year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland began to increase significantly, from 2.7% in 2017 to 4.54%. Throughout 2018, the mainland sold 1.256 million new energy vehicles, an increase of 61.7% year-on-year.
However, part of the reason behind the rapid growth of new energy sales in 2018 is that the new version of the policy has increased the subsidy for working conditions of more than 300 kilometers, and the subsidy amount of NEDC models greater than 400 kilometers has increased by 6,000 yuan.
In the early days of the development of new energy vehicles, the impact of subsidies on sales was greater than that of today's maturity period. In the first year of the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies, that is, in 2019, the penetration rate of new energy has temporarily stagnated.
2019 was a "cold winter" for the automotive industry, with mainland vehicle sales reaching 25.769 million units, down 8.2% year-on-year.
Although new energy vehicles still have subsidies, due to the subsidies themselves began to enter a downward cycle, the annual sales of new energy vehicles for the first time experienced negative growth, down 3.5% year-on-year to 1.206 million units (including passenger cars and commercial vehicles).
The temporary cold winter has slowed down the penetration rate of new energy in mainland China in 2019 and has not maintained the high growth rate of 2017-2018.
But the year is still memorable, as we witnessed for the first time that for every 20 cars sold, there is 1 new energy vehicle – 5% penetration, which was achieved in 2019.
However, due to the sudden epidemic and the continuous decline in new energy car purchase subsidies, the new energy penetration rate in 2020 has not ushered in a leap forward.
Throughout the whole year of 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland were 1.367 million units, with a penetration rate of 5.4%, while the sales of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 1 million units for the first time, with a penetration rate of 5.8%.
Perhaps because the penetration rate of new energy in 2019 and 2020 has been slow for two consecutive years, the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" mentions that "2025 will reach a penetration rate of 20%", which seemed slightly radical at the time.
But the facts tell us that the inflection point often comes sooner than expected.
Second, 10%, a leap after the pain
"If it weren't for subsidies, electric cars wouldn't have been better than gasoline cars."
We rarely hear this view these days, but getting more people to go from black to pink doesn't happen overnight. Since the official decline of subsidies in 2019, new energy has used about two years to reverse the offensive.
Among them, the most powerful data to fight back against "electric black" must be the penetration rate that will rise all the way from 2021.
In the first quarter of 2021, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles announced by the Association was 8.6%, of which March was the first month in mainland China to reach 10% of new energy penetration, which was 10.5%.
Also starting from this quarter, the "new energy vehicle penetration rate" will be a necessary item in the market analysis report.
Matching the trend, 2021 became the first year of smart electric vehicles.
Tesla Model Y, Model 3, Weilai 866 Family, Xiaopeng P7, Ideal ONE, BYD Dynasty EV/DM Family, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV... For the first time, consumers felt that new energy vehicles did not lose the product power of gasoline vehicles at the same price, and thus brought about the beginning of the popularity of new energy vehicles.
It is also from 2021 that the "electric black" begins to retreat, and the focus of the debate begins to shift from the dispute between oil and electricity to the dispute between plug-in hybrid and pure electricity, or the dispute between brands in the pure electricity route.
Three, 20%, smash all doubts
Entering the era of double-digit penetration, we began to witness history on a monthly basis.
Unfortunately, the penetration rate only stayed at the 1 word for 9 months: from March to November 2021, there are not many examples that we can come up with; but it took only 9 months from 10% to 20% that we really realized that the inflection point of new energy is at this moment.
Back in the second half of 2021, what were we talking about? To name a few hot spots: Huawei's entry, Tesla FSD Beta, NIO NP2.0, Xiaopeng's lidar...
Not only has the oil and electricity dispute been completely abandoned, but the discussion of electric vehicles in the second half of 2021 has long since surpassed pure "electric" and entered the intelligent deep water area.
Another example is Toyota Honda, which was the light of gasoline just three years ago, and has joined the army of pure electricity in 2021. The scene where Akio Toyoda opens his arms in front of 15 pure electric concept cars can be selected as the famous scene of the 2021 electric vehicle.
In a few years, looking back at the new energy wave of 2021, we have many dimensions of judgment: Tesla is close to one million sales, China's new car has opened a 100,000+ era, Huawei Xiaomi Baidu has fully entered the automotive industry...
But what is more reflective of the surge itself is the acceleration of the new energy penetration rate that has been questioned about all electric.
Fourth, plug and mix or pure electricity?
Under the undoubted new energy wave, there is actually a key topic: is it the plug-in PHEV or the pure electric BEV that promotes this wave?
Or the data speaks.
In the whole year of 2020, the sales volume of pure electric passenger cars in mainland China was 910416, and the sales of plug-in and mixed passenger cars were 200934, and pure electricity accounted for 81.9% of the sales of new energy passenger cars.
In the whole year of 2021, the sales volume of pure electric passenger cars in mainland China was 2444036 units, and the sales volume of plug-in and mixed passenger cars was 544,900 units, and pure electricity accounted for 81.8% of the sales of new energy passenger cars.
In March 2022, the wholesale sales of pure electric passenger cars in mainland China were 371,000 units, and the wholesale sales of plug-in and hybrid passenger cars were 84,000 units, and pure electricity accounted for 81.5% of new energy passenger car sales.
Looking at the three sets of data (all from the Association of Multipliers), pure electricity still accounts for the majority of sales and is stable at more than 80%.
This year is the big year of plug-and-mix, the Great Wall, BYD, ideal will launch a new model of plug-and-mix, and the sales growth rate of plug-and-mix sales in the past two years is indeed higher than that of pure electricity. In terms of data alone, pure electricity is still the first choice of consumers.
Five, 40%, right in front of you
Here's some data:
In 2015, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China exceeded 1% for the first time, which was 1.35%; from 0 (0.03% in 2010) to 1%, we used it for 5 years; from 1% to 5%, we used it for 4 years; from 5% to 10%, we used it for 2 years, from 10% to 20%, we only used 9 months.
If the new energy retail penetration rate exceeded 30% in April, then from 20% to 30%, we only took 4 months.
Not only is the penetration rate itself expanding, but the speed of penetration rate expansion is also accelerating, which is also often referred to as the "inflection point".
At the 100-person meeting on electric vehicles in March, Wang Chuanfu said, "If it is calculated at the same speed in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland is expected to reach 35% by the end of this year."
After the March data came out, we had a new forecast benchmark. If we calculate the average rate of penetration from January to March this year, we are expected to witness a monthly penetration rate of close to 60% this year.
This may be too radical, but it is believed that it is no problem to exceed Wang Chuanfu's expectations of 35%, or even reach 40%.
Maybe electric cars will never reach 100% penetration, but what is certain is that we will soon be able to cross the "penetration rate" and start talking about "ownership".
(End)