Written by / C Jun Winnie
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Design / Zoi.
Despite the epidemic, chip shortages, rising lithium prices and other unfavorable factors continue to hit, the good news from the new energy automobile industry is wave after wave. Behind the cumulative promotion of more than 10 million vehicles, the new energy vehicle market scale, key technologies and comprehensive income have achieved new breakthroughs.
The butterfly effect of new energy vehicles, looking at the data is the most intuitive:
1. In the first quarter, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.293 million units and 1.257 million units, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year;
2. Private consumption accounts for nearly 80%;
3. The market share of new energy in January 2021 was 6%, and it soared to 19.1% in December;
4. The share of new energy vehicles in first-tier cities soared from 15.79% to 40%, and the share of sixth-tier cities soared from 0.98% to 20%;
Although many people know that new energy vehicles can "fight", they did not expect that the data changes were so amazing.
BYD, which recently officially announced that it "cut off oil", is the courage given by the "three major thresholds" of market size, key technologies and comprehensive income, becoming the first automobile company in the world to announce the cessation of production of fuel vehicles. According to BYD's latest production and sales report data, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in March exceeded 100,000 units, which not only reached the annual sales of any "Wei Xiaoli", but also exceeded the joint venture brand - Honda's two joint venture subsidiaries in China combined with less than 100,000 units in March.
Therefore, when BYD issued the announcement of "stopping production of fuel vehicles from March, focusing on pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle business", Chelizi was not surprised, as a car company with 82.9% of its sales from new energy vehicles, the suspension of pure fuel vehicles provides more adequate production capacity resources and technical support for new energy vehicles with higher profits, which is more in line with long-term interests.
For any car company, the underpinnings of "oil cutting" are built on the supremacy of market sales, profit composition and brand positioning, and the deep competition is a comprehensive embodiment of technical support, research and development strength and production supply. In addition, new energy vehicles are highly dependent on policies, and the supply of raw materials and ecological relations after the epidemic have made the transformation of car companies full of variables. Bydir has undoubtedly become the biggest beneficiary of the mainland new energy vehicle trend, last year BYD sold 600,000 new energy vehicles, three times that of 2020, blade battery, DM-i super hybrid, e platform 3.0, IGBT4.0 and other core technologies, it should be said that the "science and engineering man" accumulated for many years of outbreak.
(According to the 2021 financial reports of various car companies, Changan Automobile's 2021 financial report has not yet been announced)
Therefore, the "oil cut-off to electricity" statement seems to be dashing, the supporting force behind the substance is interlocked, even after BYD overturned the first "oil-cut" domino, for any traditional car company, whether or not it has proposed the "stop selling fuel vehicles" timetable before, every step in the electrification transformation period is not easy. We believe that when the scale and profit of a traditional car company's new energy vehicles are enough to support its own research and development expenses, production costs, market expenses and upstream and downstream ecological chains, it will not hesitate to announce "oil abandonment from electricity", but when it has not yet been achieved, the slogan-style painting cake is useless.
Regardless of whether it is "cut off oil", looking at the flag established in the past, the comparison of new energy targets is too cruel!
Only 3 years left for Chang'an?
In addition to BYD, Changan Automobile should be another independent car company with a specific "oil cut- off" schedule. As early as October 2017, Changan Automobile announced the "Shangri-La Plan", which planned to invest more than 100 billion yuan in the new energy field in the next eight years, and will completely stop selling traditional fuel vehicles by 2025.
Now it seems that the "Shangri-La Plan" is more than grand but insufficient; according to the data, the sales of new energy models under Changan Automobile in 2020 will only be 30,000, accounting for only 1.5% of the brand's total sales. In 2021, Changan Automobile announced that in the 2025 strategic plan, the brand plans to account for 35% of new energy vehicle sales in 2025 to 1.05 million units. According to this calculation, Changan's new energy vehicle sales will increase 23 times in 5 years.
Of course, for the huge Volume of Changan Automobile, the high ambition is to launch the Blue Whale IDD hybrid system and the new pure electric platform with rich and complete new energy technology reserves; and there are products planned on a number of new energy technology lines, including EV, PHEV, extended range REEV and fuel cell vehicle FCV.
"2022 is a big year for Changan's products in the field of new energy, with a sales target of 300,000 vehicles, of which Changan New Energy's target is 200,000 vehicles," Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan, said earlier. It is understood that Changan's first plug-in hybrid model UNI-K iDD has been listed in March, and Changan New Energy C385, Avita 11, A00-class cars based on the EPA0 platform and UNI-V iDD versions will also be listed, which also means that Changan has transformed into a model mode with multiple dynamics coexisting.
Geely: Ruthlessly run over by the torrent of new energy, hybrid and re-fighting
Revenue soared, the market size is also the crown of autonomy, in the car and SUV market can continue to output influential new cars, Geely Automobile's upward breakthrough road is more and more smooth, as if it has become a successful template for independent car companies to seek corporate transformation. But for Geely Automobile, in the past few years of rapid growth, there is a short board that has not been able to make up for it well, that is, new energy.
Compared with BYD, which has always been a "science and engineering man", geely automobile's electrification transformation is a bit "early in the morning, but rushed to the late set".
Seven years ago, in 2015, Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Holdings, released a bold "Blue Geely" strategy to achieve that by 2020, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for more than 90% of Geely's overall sales. Let's not say that this flag has been poured for two years, the situation at that time was indeed a good one, in 2016, the total sales of domestic new energy passenger cars were only 320,000, Geely Automobile ranked first among domestic car companies with a production of 48,000 vehicles, but the first-mover advantage did not last long, subsidies declined, pure electric platform instead of "oil to electricity" is an irreversible trend, and soon let the limitations of "Blue Geely" appear.
After 4 years of trial and error, in the second half of 2020, the "Two Blue Geely" action plan landed, forming a more effective new energy strategy: First, the main focus on high-end intelligent pure electric vehicles, mainly by the landing of extreme krypton vehicles, by 2025, Geely intelligent electric vehicles accounted for more than 30%, that is, more than 1.09 million, and extreme krypton sales reached 650,000 vehicles, high-end electric vehicle market share of the world's top three. The other is to focus on intelligent energy-saving and small-displacement new energy vehicles, including hybrid, extended-range plug-in hybrid, to achieve a 9:1 proportion of new energy hybrid and traditional energy-saving small-displacement vehicles, mainly landed by Geely Automobile.
Admittedly, in the 1.328 million unit sales base of Geely Automobile in 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles are only 82,000 units, accounting for less than 7%. However, if the Geely layout is electrified into a line segment, then the current situation is undoubtedly only in the initial stage, and in 2021, the SEA Haohan Pure Electric Platform Architecture was released and the Extreme Kr 001 was launched, marking the most important step in Geely's electrification transformation. Geely has launched PHEV models in the high-end brand Lynk & Co, while Thor Hi · X technology is also rolled out in Geely's model matrix. It is understood that 2022 is a big year for Geely products, and 13 new energy models, including plug-in hybrid, alcohol-electric hybrid, and pure electric, will be launched on the market.
At present, the new Thor Power modular hybrid platform - Thor Intelligence Hi · X will be the key to Geely's future development of the new energy market. It is understood that Ray's mind is in the air. X will cover a variety of technical routes such as HEV, PHEV and REEV range extender hybrid, according to the plan when the "Longwan Action" plan was released last year, in the next three years, Geely Group's models equipped with the Leishen Zhiqing hybrid system will reach more than 20 models.
On the one hand, the full impact of the electric torrent, on the other hand, Japanese cars and BYDs, have proved the development potential of the oil-electric hybrid market and the plug-in hybrid market, for the car companies, the focus is now not on the hybrid, but how to prove that their hybrid is better in the early stage of market cultivation. In Geely's new round of 5-year plan, whether it can make a difference in the new energy market depends on the success or failure of the Thor hybrid system.
The Great Wall with a deep family foundation, the "money" scene is very beautiful?
Compared with the new energy planning of Changan and Geely, Great Wall Motor's 2025 target is the most ambitious, planning to reach 4 million annual sales of the brand by 2025, of which new energy vehicles account for 80%, more than 3.2 million, almost 32 times the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021.
It is true that the layout clarity of the Great Wall and Changan in the intelligent electric vehicle track is not as clear as geely, especially the construction of high-end electric brands, the progress of salon and Avita is obviously lagging behind the extreme krypton; and on the new energy vehicles that constitute the basic disk of sales, the Great Wall only has the figure of Euler, a compact pure electric brand that is partial to personality, and the Mocha has just been rolled out in the field of weak mixing and intermingling; and the Haval brand, in addition to making it clear that the red rabbit and the divine beast will launch a hybrid version, the electrification timetable of the "God Car" H6 matrix is unknown.
Of course, the Great Wall has accumulated a lot of money in the home of new energy, and the lemon platform, DHT hybrid system, hive energy, etc. are all technical reserves that can make the market optimistic for a long time. And compared with Geely and BYD, the Great Wall won in the net profit in 2021, that is to say, the Great Wall will have more funds to support its extensive involvement in the field of new energy, and carry out "saturated precision investment" in the three major fields of pure electric, hydrogen energy and hybrid; and in the transformation process, the Great Wall will put "intelligence" in the first place, and the production and marketing announcement will highlight the data of more than 150,000, lemon, tank and coffee intelligent three major technology brand models.
Compared with fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles are not simply a change of driving mode, its mission is still exploring intelligent, networked, personalized and other propositions that cannot be completed in the era of fuel vehicles, which is the direction that the market likes to hear. No matter which independent car company, in this round of electrification transformation, they all pay great attention to the shaping and dissemination of their own technology brands. Electronic and electrical architecture, power system, intelligent network has become the standard of first-line independent car companies, and strive to get rid of the shadow of "oil to electricity" in the early years. Although the sales of new energy models during the transformation period did not match the main fuel vehicles, or even far from the latter, the prospects are still broad.
Write at the end
The prospects of the new energy market are very good, but the whistle of the signal is a sound that urges people to die. Regardless of whether it is "cut off from oil", the torrent of new energy industry is about to ruthlessly crush the top of every car company.
As early as 2018, BYD tried to reduce the production of traditional fuel vehicles, but at that time, BYD's battery production and other supporting facilities were insufficient, resulting in insufficient new energy production, and corporate profits fell sharply; it can be seen that excellent such as BYD, on the road of "oil cut-off" is not a stagnant, combined with the new energy dynamics of Chang'an, Geely and the Great Wall, their current sales force is still pure fuel vehicles, and the company's net profit is also higher, so the biggest risk of transformation is to maintain or even exceed the previous interests after replacing the track.
On the other hand, BYD's path is not difficult to replicate - relying on plug-in hybrids brought by its own fire to harvest market share as much as possible, while Geely released Thor Hi · X Super Electromix System, the first thing to do is to prove to itself that there is not only one DM-i in the plug-and-mix market, but also the Lemon Hybrid DHT system of Great Wall Motors, as well as more autonomous plug-and-mix systems that can be foreseen in the future.
So, can these plug-in cars get a piece of the next ten million cars?
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