01
The property market "gold three silver four" is absent, and the sales volume of the automobile market is also not optimistic.
The latest data show that car sales in the first quarter of this year are lower than expected.
According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, in March, domestic passenger car retail sales were 1.579 million units, down 10% year-on-year; cumulative retail sales from January to March were 4.915 million units, down 4.5% year-on-year, down 230,000 units year-on-year.
However, the new energy vehicle market, which accounts for nearly 30%, contrasts with the trend of traditional fuel vehicles.
In the first quarter, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.293 million units and 1.257 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.4 times year-on-year.
In March, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China was nearly 30%.
At present, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 28.2%, a significant increase of 17.6 percentage points from 10.6% in the same period last year.
Since the emergence of new energy vehicles, the number of new energy vehicles in China has increased year by year, and the number of new energy vehicles in 2021 has reached 7.84 million.
The rapid increase in sales of new energy vehicles has a certain relationship with the rise in gasoline prices, but the most important thing is to promote policies.
Previously, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Catalogue of New Energy Vehicle Models Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax (the 53rd batch), which includes a batch of pure electric passenger car models, including BYD Seals, Xiaopeng P7 and Nezha V.
In March, BYD's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 104,000 units, ranking first, up 160.9% year-on-year.
Tesla China ranked second with 66,000 vehicles, SAIC-GM-Wuling ranked third with 51,000 vehicles, and the sales of Wei Xiaoli, a new car-making force, also remained above 10,000 vehicles.
New energy has become the trend of the times, BYD has announced that it will stop the production of fuel vehicles from March, focusing on the new energy vehicle market.
In contrast, the consumption of the fuel vehicle market has shrunk, mainly the purchasing power of ordinary consumers.
The explosion of the real estate market in the past few years has led to an increase in demand for buying a house by ordinary consumers and an increase in debt, squeezing the demand for low-end car buying markets.
In addition, under the shortage of chips, the chip guarantee of traditional fuel vehicles is not as good as that of new energy vehicles, so new energy vehicles and traditional vehicles form a great contrast.
02
Looking back at the mainland automobile market, it is found that after the "residential fever", there is a "car fever" in the mainland.
According to the data, when the reform and opening up was carried out in 1978, the annual production and sales of mainland automobiles were only 149,000 units, and the production capacity was 180,000 units.
China's automobiles have a difficult start on the basis of extremely weak grafting foreign technology, and by 2021, the production and sales of automobiles will be 26.53 million and 26.275 million respectively, with rapid growth.
In 2008, Japan fell from the world's largest automobile producer in 2008 to second place, and China rose to the world's largest automobile producer.
Since then, as of 2022, the scale of mainland automobile production and sales has ranked first in the world for 14 consecutive years, accounting for about one-third of the world's automobile production and sales.
At present, the number of cars in the mainland is about 307 million, ranking first in the world, and it is a veritable big country on wheels.
However, from the perspective of per capita car ownership, we are still far from developed countries.
In 2019, the number of cars owned by 1,000 people in the United States was about 837, 747 in Australia and 695 in Italy, and the mainland data was 186 at that time.
There is a big gap even compared to developing markets such as Malaysia (433) and Russia (373).
According to the latest car ownership and population data of the mainland, we have a population of 1.4 billion, but the number of cars for 1,000 people is only 219.
In other words, more than 800 out of 1,000 people in the United States own a car, or only one in five people doesn't have a car.
On average, only one in five people on the mainland owns a car, and the space is still larger than in developed countries.
03
In the future, promoting the growth of automobile consumption, especially the new energy vehicle market, is still the mainstream direction.
Mainland new energy vehicles have certain advantages in terms of market space, institutional guarantees and technical elements, but they also face obvious constraints, including chips, operating systems and security issues.
The spring of electric vehicle companies does not seem to have come yet.
Car companies increased their income without increasing profits, and they continued to announce price increases due to the price increase of upstream raw materials, and due to the impact of the epidemic, production and supply were stopped...
In 2021, BYD's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 600,000 vehicles, which is 3 times that of 2020, but it fell into the dilemma of increasing revenue and not increasing profits.
Up to the raw materials, down to the semiconductor, BYD firmly grasps the subdivision field, the plate shop is large, and the investment is also more.
Similarly, the more it sells, the more it loses, and Xiaopeng Automobile made a net loss of 4.86 billion yuan last year, becoming the largest loss of new car-making forces.
Affected by the epidemic, WEINA's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production one after another, resulting in the suspension of NIO vehicle production and the delay in customer order delivery.
According to the calculations of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the epidemic in Shanghai and other places is expected to bring 20% of the production loss to the automotive industry.
In the new energy vehicle market, traditional car companies, Chinese and foreign brands and new car-making forces are fighting in many ways, and the burning of money continues.
The increase in sales seems to test the sustainable development potential of car companies even more.
As of the close of trading on April 11, the stock prices of a number of listed car companies fell, with BYD down 4.5%, Changan Automobile down 6.64%, Great Wall Motors down 7.18%, Beiqi Blue Valley down 7.2%, and SAIC Group down 3.31%.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, Weilai Automobile fell 11%, Xiaopeng Automobile fell more than 9%, and Ideal Automobile fell more than 8%.
Chinese new energy vehicle stocks fell before the market, WITH fell 9%, Xiaopeng Automobile fell more than 7%, and Ideal Automobile fell more than 6%.