【Lieyun Network (WeChat: ilieyun) Shanghai】 Reported on April 3 (Text/Egg General)
Recently, oil cars and trams seem to be using money to PK who is the true love of the owner.
Since 24:00 on March 17, the price of 92# gasoline in most parts of the country has exceeded 8.5 yuan / liter, and the price of 95# gasoline has officially entered the "9 yuan era". The retail price limit adjustment for refined oil products also set a record for the largest increase since the new pricing mechanism on March 26, 2013.
While the consumption cost of oil vehicles in the later stage continues to "rise", the "price increase" of new energy vehicles in the cost of pre-purchase cars is even more menacing.
Since the beginning of this year, Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng, Weima, Eian, Zero Run, Euler, Nezha, Feifan, Ideal and other nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies more than 40 electric vehicles have announced price increases, as little as 34,000, high as 20,000 or 30,000, fully ushered in a collective price increase tide, the price increase directly chased the oil price.
Among them, the zero-run C11 suddenly rose by 20,000-30,000 yuan, while the Tesla Model 3, which only 235,900 yuan more than half a year ago, has now risen by a total of 44,000 yuan, and the acceleration is 0.5 seconds slower.
In this situation, on the one hand, the owner of the oil car jokes that "he can't afford to drive a fuel car" and wants to sell the fuel car and replace it with a new energy vehicle. On the one hand, the prospective owner of the new energy has changed from waiting for the party to become a leek, "Now to be a takeover man or wait for the new model, this is a problem." ”
Mr. Wang of Hangzhou, as an iron fan of Tesla, finally placed an order before the latest wave of price increases, bid farewell to the party and so on. "Completely blind, I wait and see, Tesla Model Y has risen by 40,000." I regret not placing an order in advance, but after I placed my order on March 4, I rose by more than 10,000, and I felt better. ”
With the current situation in the domestic new energy market, there will be no manufacturers who want to dissuade consumers by raising prices. And the new energy vehicle prospective owners will naturally not abandon the "electricity" investment "oil" because of the price increase, and even show the trend of "buying early and incense early", which can be described as a two-way rush.
Abandon "oil" to invest in "electricity", green card + save money to buy early and enjoy early
"I think the first factor that determines that everyone buys new energy is the license."
At the end of January 2021, Li Yong in Shanghai bought the Xiaopeng P7, and the reason why he chose the tram was because Li Yong, who was an indigenous person, could not shake the license plate at all, and the tram became the best solution for his helpless but logical. "The direct reason that prompted me to buy a car as soon as possible was that Shanghai was going to have a wave of new energy policies at the end of February, but at that time, I didn't know what the new policies were, and I was afraid of not sending license plates, so I quickly bought them."
After getting the car, the first thing Li Yong did was to feel that he could "white prostitute" for 20,000 kilometers of real incense. According to the lifelong free charging service policy of Xiaopeng Automobile, the owner of the G3/G3i/P7 model, who pays the deposit before July 31, 2021 (inclusive), enjoys the lifetime free charging service policy of 3,000 kWh of electricity per year, according to his conversion, that is, 20,000 kilometers.
Xiaopeng's charging piles are generally all over the parking lot of the mall, and the owner can charge for free two hours of parking fees, and automatically renew every year.
"Electric vehicles are definitely the sooner you buy the more fragrant, and now Xiaopeng P7 only sends 1,000 kWh of electricity, so it is estimated that it will affect the choice of P7 and other parties." With the brand, the price increase of P5 is not large, or send 3,000 kWh of electricity, so in the past, it was planned to buy new energy for about 200,000 yuan, and people who may bite their teeth to buy P7 are now estimated to be less. ”
In the view of Li Yong, a new energy car owner, the price increase will only delay people's purchase decisions, such as whether they still have to wait to see other new models. "Just like Weilai ET7 has been released, at this time Xiaopeng has increased its price, then when weilai's price and Xiaopeng are similar, can we reconsider which one to choose." If this model has been sold for a long time, the brand price increase will not be said, but like Weilai's new car can not just sell the price of it. ”
In line with Li Yong's idea, the Tesla Model Y car advocates good, originally driving a Porsche, she last year because of the Shanghai New Deal foreign license plate weekday restrictions, and she has not been able to shoot the license plate, and had to abandon the "oil" to invest in "electricity".
Because Zhang Jia's Porsche still has a price increase during the epidemic and the domestic inventory is small, it is about 95% off when it is bought for more than a year. For Zhang Jia, the oil truck can not be driven on weekdays, it can only be thrown aside and wasted, changing a new energy vehicle not only makes it easier to save money, but also can get the green card of the Shanghai weekday ring for free, solve the Shanghai brand troubles, it is simply two birds with one stone.
"Model Y has a strong sense of technology, the most full 504 kilometers, I generally charge to 450 kilometers, stop for a day and do not open about 2 kilometers a day, every day can be opened for almost a week and a half, my company on the side of the super charging pile charged within an hour, almost 60-90 yuan, and I added a tank of oil before almost 350-400 yuan."
Zhang Jia chose Tesla for three reasons, the first performance is overall good, the second is cost-effective, and the third charging pile is more. So when she bought last year, Zhang Jia did not think too much about other brands, but went straight to Tesla, and her driving experience changed from "helpless" to "pretty good" over the past year.
According to its disclosure, before the oil car insurance was 13,000 yuan a year, a month needs to add about 1200 yuan of oil, and now the insurance is more than 6,000 yuan, in the case of no charging pile at home, the electricity bill is 200-300 yuan / month. "If there is a parking space equipped with charging piles, then the electricity bill is about a few tens of yuan a month."
How about the fast price drop, the endurance is virtual, the owner is still "really fragrant"
The real experience of tram owners seems to verify that Shen Hui, founder and CEO of WM Motor, posted on his Weibo on March 9 that power is more economical than refueling, "5 years and 100,000 kilometers, power plus saves more than 80,000 yuan than refueling, enough to buy four LV or Hermès."
But even so, there are still media rebuttals that "the depreciation of the tram is too fast, the half-year retention rate is only 81%, and the residual value of the fall can buy 7 LV; while the 3-year retention rate is only 51%, and the residual value of the fall can buy more than 10 LV." And bluntly said that seeing the retention rate can be said to be a thunderbolt in the clear sky.
So is the retention rate really more important than saving money on electricity?
From the BAIC EV160 to the Tesla Model 3, Wang Qian, the owner of beijing who has always chosen the tram, does not think so. According to its disclosure, its five-year-old BAIC EV160 was directly auctioned through the 4S store, and finally sold for 30,000 yuan, while the purchase price of this car was 80,000, although she lost an LV a year, but she was not distressed.
"The car itself is not expensive, so it feels fine. After all, the battery is no problem, and it can continue to be used for 5 or 6 years. I asked the 4S store, buy electric used cars are sinking city users, and the battery of the car at that time was a Korean battery, not inflated, often running to 15 kilometers to charge. ”
In her view, the biggest benefit of the tram is to save money, before the BAIC electric car 1 year about 1000 yuan electricity bill, and Tesla because of the long endurance, the annual electricity bill of about 1500 yuan, followed by good opening, fast accelerator acceleration, nap in the car, do not have to worry about carbon monoxide poisoning.
In fact, used car bargains do exist. According to the first half of the new energy vehicle retention rate report released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, among the retention rates of mainstream pure electric vehicles, the one-year retention rate of NIO ES6 is 78.12%, bydir Han EV is 76.06%, Tesla Model 3 is 73.35%, Xiaopeng P7 is 72.59%, Ideal ONE is 71.10%, and NIO ES8 is 62.98%.
The three-year retention rate of most traditional fuel vehicles is usually 60%-70%, and some explosive models also have their own value-added attributes, such as the retention rate of Toyota Alpha's three-year age of 112.43% (there is a markup factor). Therefore, the retention rate of electric vehicles is generally lower than that of fuel vehicles.
"But this doesn't affect consumer buying decisions, because most consumers still like to buy new cars." Chai Daixuan, director of CIC's consulting, said that as electric vehicles become more and more intelligent, consumers have also been educated in their consumption minds as they are like electronic products, and they are more inclined to buy new and not buy old theory. New cars can not only get more preferential subsidies, but also enjoy more comprehensive warranty and supporting services.
In addition, the advantage of electric vehicles is that fuel costs and maintenance fees are cheap. Because there are no precision components such as engines and gearboxes, the consumption of maintenance is lower for the usual time, and the core components of electric vehicles are batteries, motors and electronic controls, which are much less wear and tear relative to fuel vehicles, so it also causes a low failure rate of pure electric vehicles. She added, "Electric vehicles usually only need to replace the air conditioning filter, brake oil, etc. regularly, the maintenance cost is about a few hundred pieces, and the replacement cycle is relatively long; while the maintenance and replacement steps of fuel vehicles are more, and the cost of three oils and four filters is high." ”
In Li Yong's view, the price drop is far less than the endurance problem, which makes the electric vehicle owner "can't get around". "To say second-hand, not to preserve the value is certain, conservative at least a third, Weilai can change the electricity, probably the hedging point." The overall cost of the tram is still low, and the money lost in the depreciation of the car is imagined to be sold back, and the money saved through these years of maintenance will be almost flattened. ”
From the data point of view, the current mainstream sale of electric vehicles, the endurance is generally between 350KM-500KM, this mileage is not enough for long-distance travel, charging demand is frequent and common. Taking Xiaopeng P7 as an example, Li Yong said that its NEDC is 670KM, and according to the WLTP algorithm, the endurance of the P7 is 576KM, but the actual effective mileage used in the end is only about 400KM.
What makes Li Yong most helpless is that the actual situation of the new tram forces in terms of battery life, car dealers and sales will not tell users. "The best is Tesla, which is close to 1 to 1 at normal temperatures."
But this will not affect Li Yong's plan to buy a new energy vehicle, he believes that new energy vehicles have become a trend of citizens to travel, and with the familiarity with new energy vehicle driving and continuous optimization of energy technology, considering the convenience of home piles, he also took the upcoming Xiaopeng G9 as the purchase target of the family's second car this year.
The "speculation" of hybrid vehicles encountered obstacles, and the "balance" of car purchase was tilted towards pure electricity
And just when the price of trams is rising and oil prices are rising, there are still a group of car owners who are stealing fun, that is, hybrid car owners.
As a tram, hybrid cars also enjoy green cards and preferential subsidies, but at the same time they can be oiled and electric, which is comfortable in this wave of price increases.
"The oil is too expensive to open, so charge it." Shanghai car owner Mr. Sun purchased Toyota Leiling Dual Engine E+ the year before, as an upgraded version of the Lightning Dual Engine, with a larger capacity battery pack + pure electric 55km endurance, more importantly, it can be both green card and can also enjoy preferential subsidies for electric vehicles.
It is understood that the purchase tax-free subsidy price of this car is 180,000 yuan, and the subsidy is nearly 20,000 yuan. "Some people would say that hybrid cars are IQ taxes, but a car is a means of transportation, and technology is not a big problem. There are also multiple options for co-oil and electricity, and I don't have to worry about battery life when I drive back to my hometown to use oil directly. ”
Byd owners in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, told Lieyun that now buying hybrid cars needs to queue up, BYD has to queue for several months, and many people have bought other brands without discounts.
In terms of plug-in hybrid models, BYD Song PLUS DM-i, Ideal ONE and BYD Qin PLUS DM-i are the most popular in Shanghai. Since sales exceeded 7,000 units in January last year, sales of plug-in hybrid models in Shanghai have been in a steady growth trend.
In order to avoid more hybrid owners using trams as oil vehicles, Shanghai also requires hybrid vehicles to install charging piles. To this end, there are intermediaries in the market, specifically responsible for this work, according to Li Yong, the general cost is about a few thousand yuan. "The 4S shop can also help solve the problem, they help you hang the electric pile to the Parking Spaces with property rights such as Chongming Jinshan."
Now, the situation on both sides of the hybrid car may be coming to an end.
In February this year, Shanghai issued the "Implementation Measures for Encouraging the Purchase and Use of New Energy Vehicles in Shanghai", which clarified that from January 1, 2023, consumers who purchase plug-in hybrid (including range extender) vehicles will no longer be issued special license quotas. This means that starting next year, hybrid cars with "range extender" technology such as the ideal will be excluded from the Shanghai "green card".
Before Shanghai, only pure electric models in Beijing could be licensed with green license plates, and the ideal ONE belonging to the category of plug-in models needed to be insured in Beijing using fuel vehicle license plates. In addition, in Beijing, the new energy green card has the difference between Beijing AD and Beijing AF, that is, plug-in hybrid (including the extender) can apply for the green card of Beijing AF, but still does not enjoy the right of way, or will be restricted.
At the same time, it is precisely because of this policy that in Beijing, the sales situation of the ideal ONE is not very good. In terms of ideal ONE terminal sales from January to November 2021, Shanghai ranked first with sales of 5534 vehicles, while Beijing ranked eighth with sales of 3138 vehicles, the latter only 56% of the former.
If the Shanghai license plate tightens, the impact on sales can be imagined. If this policy is gradually followed by various places, it will further compress the market space for hybrid vehicles, including ideals.
To this end, in October last year, the Ideal Automobile Beijing Green Intelligent Factory officially started construction in Shunyi District, Beijing, and the first phase will achieve an annual output of 100,000 pure electric vehicles. It seems to indicate that in the tide of pure electricity, the extender will gradually withdraw from the historical stage, and the ideal will accelerate the transformation to pure electricity.
The rise in oil prices has promoted the sales of new energy vehicles to a certain extent.
According to data from the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars in China in February this year were 272,000 units, an increase of 180.5% year-on-year, and the penetration rate was 21.8%, an increase of 13 percentage points over the same period last year. In addition to the Chinese market, the global new energy vehicle market has also been further matured. According to a report released by Electronek, Tesla's orders in several parts of the United States have surged recently due to soaring gasoline prices, with orders in some areas increasing by 100%.
Chai Daixuan believes that with the increase in global oil prices, many consumers have changed their views on new energy vehicles, and even the "balance" of car purchase choices has been tilted to new energy vehicles. But the growth of electric vehicle sales depends on how long the future oil prices and electric vehicle price increases will last.
"The reason for the collective price increase of new energy vehicles is that the price of upstream raw materials has soared, and after the transmission of power battery manufacturers, it will eventually spread to the vehicle enterprises." In addition to the price increase of production elements such as lithium and nickel, the shortage of chips has also caused car companies to encounter difficulties in scheduling production, and production capacity has declined. The price of new energy vehicles will inhibit demand to a certain extent, and in the future, if the price of raw materials for power batteries continues to rise, the Association of Automobiles will adjust the forecast sales of new energy vehicles throughout the year according to the actual market conditions. ”
(At the request of the interviewees, Li Yong, Zhang Jia, and Wang Qian are pseudonyms)