Author: Xie Renjie
With the complete abolition of the automotive joint venture share ratio and the number of joint venture partners, the vehicle manufacturing industry has ushered in an era in which foreign investment seems to be completely unhindered. However, there are not many stocks to be revised by the policy rapidly, on the surface, it is a problem of too late time to operate, but in fact, the problem is much more complicated.
Dependencies are the problem
The negative list is gradually being abolished, a policy that was established four years ago. According to the special vehicle, new energy, commercial vehicle, and finally the turn of the passenger car, why is this order? The direct cause is, of course, the different policy resistance, the smaller the turbulence that triggers the redistribution of industry interests, the more priority it is; the more complex and major interest relations are involved, the more trouble must be put behind.
In fact, it is not so difficult to say, with time to flatten the advantages of foreign capital, I hope that Chinese companies use time to accumulate enough competitiveness, the vast majority can survive. This goal seems to have been achieved, and the industry has not caused major turmoil.
If it is really a dou who can't afford it, even if it is postponed for 10 years, there is no drama. Moreover, the change in the stock ratio is not the end of the world, as long as it is still in the signing period, even if the year-end dividend is less, it will not hinder the basic survival. In fact, if you don't eat poorly and wear poorly, you are afraid of the big hole in your autonomy.
Yes, it's Brilliance. BMW Brilliance's profit contribution as a joint venture reached 108% (FY2020 data), which shows that other sectors of Brilliance are at loss. The good news is that Jinbei Automobile, as an iron rooster of A-shares for 20 years, will make a profit of 150 million yuan (unaudited) in 2021, but it still does not pay dividends.
Brilliance mixed into this part, BMW to change the joint venture share ratio to 75%, it seems not too much. What qualifications do you have to oppose being the master of bankruptcy protection? It can only burn high incense, and when the contract is signed until 2040, at least until several leaders retire, there will be no major changes.
Although Brilliance's case has been "whipped" countless times, it is good that the true face of the relationship between the two parties to the joint venture has been recognized. Dependence on foreign parties exceeds 100%, and only what is needed can be given. In the past few years, it has been dragging on and failing to deliver, but it is only hindered by the policy. So it's not unusual to rush to shoot the first shot of the stock ratio change.
According to this standard, BAIC is also hanging. Because Beiben's contribution to the profits of BAIC Group has also reached a dangerously higher than 90%. However, through capital operation, BAIC Group operates itself into the largest single shareholder of Mercedes-Benz, which is equivalent to putting a cushion in advance. Although BAIC and Li Shufu both lost a mess when they bought Mercedes-Benz shares, BAIC temporarily retained the share ratio.
Capital can only be managed for a while. BAIC knows that it is actively investing in the new energy business, although the Jihu brand is not satisfactory, and it is still paying off the original radical debt of BAIC BJEV, but it is not lying flat.
Instead of worrying about the change of the joint venture share ratio and the damage to its own profits, it is better to invest in new energy.
In this part of the joint venture, the action is slow. The reason is that for strong brands (such as BBA), the original fuel vehicle market is too fragrant, and the money is too easy to earn. People have an inherent tendency to stay in their comfort zone, and so do businesses. Only in the face of an existential crisis can we renew our morale, and from this point of view, the stronger China's new energy business is, the safer the traditional business.
GAC, Changan, and FAW are not worried about the change in the stock ratio, because the autonomy has been done. Profits are set aside for the time being, even if you lose money, the brand is the top priority.
The all-out attack, a stud, and the re-emergence of the red flag are a typical positive example. State-owned enterprises rarely have this courage, because of the iron camp and the flowing water cadres. Everyone wants to be right not to make a mistake, but in fact, sitting still is the biggest strategic mistake. But only a few well-authorized and courageous executives of state-owned enterprises dare to bet on them.
This is not reckless, a leader can not draw their own drawings and knock code to check the production line, the focus is on resource mobilization ability and the next layer of pressure to stimulate execution. Of course, it will not be comfortable to do so, and the so-called mercy does not control the soldiers.
Tesla wholly owned, whose pot
The new energy business is a new track. Since Tesla came in, it quickly stabilized its brand advantage and sales advantage, and its state-owned enterprises with new energy brands, as well as other new forces, are very dissatisfied with the resources tesla has obtained after coming in, such as cheap land, cheap loans, credit lines, etc., and think it is unfair.
In fact, it is not Shanghai kneeling to lick Tesla, Tesla has built factories in the local area, and the teams led by the governors of various states have come to the door to ask for favors, and Tesla is also like a concubine. Even if Tesla was still losing money for years, this was the case. It's not hard to understand that the capital markets have given the answer, just you, the chosen one.
This dude will hype themselves, hype the brand, that is another level of things. I have never heard of a car brand that has no market recognition and relies on raw speculation all the way to the fire. The automotive industry is really very much, and it is not a rice circle.
Also, every gift has a price tag. The betting agreement between Shanghai and Tesla, which was still a half-hidden secret at the time, has long been exposed. The Shanghai syndicate gave the loan interest rate of 3.9%, providing 9 billion guaranteed term loans and 2.25 billion unsecured revolving loans; 865,000 square meters of land for 973 million yuan, allowing Tesla to hold 100% of the shares, on the condition that Tesla will pay 2.23 billion yuan in taxes per year from 2023 onwards, otherwise it will return the corresponding land.
Tesla has paid off all its loans, and the land has not expanded. Since india's plans have cooled, Tesla seems intent on opening a second factory in the country. Needless to say, it was another massive draft event. It is normal for other opponents to be jealous, but it is a bit too much to propose to "strengthen supervision of foreign investment". This is equivalent to driving history backwards.
Why Tesla can become the first exclusive foreign car company in China, the gods in the domestic industry may be a little selectively forgotten. In 2015, how many passenger cars were involved in the boiling deception, not to mention commercial vehicles? When they are white lotuses, the Internet has a memory, and the regulatory authorities have more memories. Instead of letting these guys mess around and cheat, invite catfish in and get out whoever doesn't work hard. The catfish turning into a shark is a different story.
Independent rise, joint venture began a new joint venture
The reason why Tesla can make a global profit is because China's production capacity has risen, and the domestic supply chain behind it is too powerful. 6 major sectors, 124 listed companies, the whole chain can be replaced, and the battery is deployed with one supply, two supplies and three supplies. If Tesla does not want to leave some motherboards, ADAS systems and other fine work for itself, 100% localization is not a problem at all.
Tesla's life will not always be better. Competitors are up, and they are getting more and more aggressive every day. BYD topped the list of new energy wholesales (87,473 units) in February, and Tesla rose to second place (56,515 units), but the former grew at a crazy 753.8 percent and the latter "only" 118.2 percent. Although the latter has only two models, the former has a bunch of models, divided into ocean and dynasty series, but compared to hard power, everyone looks at the scale, who looks at the single model.
Seeing that the price ceiling of localization has broken through to the 200,000 line (there are also 500,000 new energy domestic models, but the volume is not good), and the grade of less than 100,000 and hundreds of thousands of people is soaring, Tesla will not be as demanding as when it first came in. The transformation of the situation is sometimes faster than the cognition. The result of the complete localization supply chain is to hang the joint venture.
Although they are also in the same market space, the cost of doing BOM is not to do Chinese brands. This reason is not unfolded, anyway, once the technical generation gap disappears, the quality difference will no longer exist, and the brand premium will not disappear far away.
The foreign capital in the joint venture looks in the eyes and is anxious in the heart, and sometimes it is inevitable to regard the old agreement as a negative asset of new energy, and simply start another line. Volkswagen Jianghuai, BMW Great Wall (beam), Mercedes-Benz (Smart) Geely, all belong to this list. This water is still all Ashkenazi, and sure enough, the ashkenazi crisis sense stimulates the enterprising link, which is more sensitive than the American and Japanese opponents.
This is still a strong joint venture brand, and the future is not so reliable. Instead of worrying about others taking the cake and complaining to yourself, it is better to practice on your own and beat your opponent back. Sometimes market competition is similar to the chaos of street turf. Such a comparison may not be appropriate, but strength under the rules of the market can explain a lot of things.
The adjustment of the joint venture stock ratio is not much, which does not mean that the rivers and lakes are not happy, and those who have ideas are ducks paddling. Whether time is on the side that actively seeks strategic change, or on the side that pushes the boat along the water to cope with change, a few years can give the answer.