February, very demon. From the production of power batteries, the amount of vehicles loaded, and then to the recent frequent official announcements of new energy vehicle price increases, we try to summarize some possible trends and conclusions.
"The output is fierce, the loading volume is very provocative"
At the beginning of 2022, the output of power batteries has risen rapidly. In February, the output of continental power batteries was specifically 31.8GWh, an increase of 236.2% year-on-year. We all know that there is a Spring Festival holiday in February. But the production of power batteries has created a record high, which has surpassed the peak of last December (31.63GWh).
If we look closely, we will also find that the output of power batteries in February is even higher than that in January, and the production situation in February of the previous two years was the bottom. Why? The reason is simple, the price of raw materials (such as cobalt and lithium) for power batteries has soared. Power battery manufacturers are not stupid, since the future is bullish, the more the current production, the better, more is stored in the warehouse, and finally will appreciate. As a result, in February, the "demon" rose, and the output was very fierce.
However, the installed volume of power batteries "follows" the sales volume of new energy vehicles. Specifically, the loading volume in February reached 13.68GWh, an increase of 145.1% year-on-year, but it was far less high than the output, and even less than half of the output.
Combining the production volume and the loading volume, we can draw a conclusion. At the beginning of the year, the industry was very optimistic about the sales forecast of new energy vehicles in 2022, which promoted the production planning of the entire power battery step by step. The actual output of power batteries in 2021 is about 220GWh, and the expected power battery production in 2022 is likely to exceed 400GWh. However, since March, the price of battery raw materials has risen, and finally passed to the price increase of terminal models, which in turn has suppressed terminal demand, and the actual sales volume in the future has fallen less than expected, and the output of power batteries will also fall.
"Lithium iron phosphate completely wins the wrist"
Another big drama is the game between ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate. Since May 2021, the production of lithium iron phosphate has surpassed that of ternary materials, and in the following months, the gap between them has gradually widened. In February 2022, the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.05GWh, accounting for 63.1% of the total output, an increase of 364.1% year-on-year. The output of ternary batteries is 11.64GWh, accounting for 36.6% of the total output, an increase of 127.2% year-on-year, and the output performance is not as good as lithium iron phosphate.
The reason is very simple, the cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries is lower, which is more in line with the demands of low-end models to strictly control costs. However, the price of battery raw materials has risen, lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries have been affected, and the pressure has been transmitted to the terminal market, and the price of new energy vehicles has to increase. Even, low-end cars are more price sensitive and bear more pressure.
Let's look at the loading volume in February, lithium iron phosphate is still pressing down on ternary batteries. It is only the leading edge of lithium iron phosphate loading volume, which is not as obvious as the output. The reason is also understandable, February battery production has the purpose of "inventory", it will take several months to fully release to the end market. In addition, February is a "buffer period", and car companies are also waiting, testing and thinking about whether to take the initiative to raise prices in March, because price increases will inevitably face the risk of declining sales. Nowadays, Tesla has taken the lead, followed up by car companies, the price has risen together, it depends on the consumer's emotions, "buy up" or wait for the supply chain to calm down, the price fell back.
Plug-in hybrids may usher in spring
If the material cost of power batteries remains high for a period of time in the future, then it may be more favorable to plug-in hybrid models. We must clarify a general background, energy conservation and emission reduction must be the trend of the times. The share of fuel vehicles will continue to shrink, and everyone can also feel that as soon as the international situation is turbulent, oil prices will rise, if we can gradually get rid of oil entanglement, how good it should be?
The characteristics of plug-in hybrid models are that they do not need a particularly large battery, then, the battery cost is controllable; in actual use, it can indeed save fuel, and it is in line with the trend of energy conservation and emission reduction; in addition, the policy subsidies related to plug-in hybrid have also entered the countdown, or will usher in a new round of spring in 2022. It can also be seen from the division of vehicles loaded in February that the year-on-year increase in plug-in and mixed passenger cars has reached 538.5%.
Battery companies are fighting chaotically, and are stirring into a "pot of porridge"
From another perspective, what kind of battle is being experienced between battery companies?
In February, the loading volume of catheter times was 6.57GWh, still the first in the list, accounting for 48%. 48%, already very high. However, from January to December 2021, the share of the Ningde era was 52.1%, more than half of the market. It can be said that in 2022, the Ningde era is giving up the market.
In fact, everyone is "playing the card". Auto manufacturers do not want to see the "Ning Wang" alone, otherwise the cost is not easy to control, the right to speak is not in their own hands, and the supply chain risk is difficult to effectively dilute. Therefore, everyone is clearly looking for "alternative suppliers". On February 24, Sunwoda announced that its subsidiary Sunwoda Electric Vehicle Battery has received a capital increase of about 2.43 billion yuan from 19 companies. Among them, the top three are Jiangsu Chehejia Automobile Co., Ltd., Sky Top LLC, and Suzhou Weirui. It should be known that the corresponding "gold lords" of these three enterprises are Ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai. The head is fleeing, and that's a signal. Between the first and second echelons of power batteries, the competition for share will be more intense.
That's all there is to it.
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The author of this article is Kick Car Gang Cao An