What is the enlightenment of the "Demon Nickel War" behind the epic "encirclement and suppression"?
The last article sorted out the beginning and end of the "Demon Nickel War", as well as the past and present lives of nickel.
So, will the sharp fluctuations in nickel prices caused by the air war set off the "butterfly effect" of the mainland new energy automobile industry? What impact will it have on the power battery route?
In this issue, MaiTeng Research Institute will interpret the industrial warning behind the "demon nickel" incident in Qingshan through the combing of the current situation of the industrial chain.
Produced by | Mytech Institute
Author | Captain Nemo
On the eve of the Lun nickel forced air war, what is the pattern of the new energy vehicle power battery?
The current situation of China's power battery industry: large share, high growth, and concentration to the head
First of all, the continental power battery market share is the largest in the world. In 2021, the total scale of the domestic power battery industry will reach 129.13 billion yuan, and the shipment volume will account for about 60% of the world. This is inseparable from the fact that the mainland occupies the world's largest new energy vehicle market. The global market for power batteries currently presents a three-legged pattern of China, Japan and South Korea, and the combined shipments of the three countries account for more than 95% of the world. The Ningde era, known as the "King of Ning", has long occupied the position of a big brother in the global power battery list.
Secondly, the industry is generally in a high growth stage. Benefiting from the growth of the global new energy vehicle market, the power battery market has achieved steady growth, with a COMPOUND annual growth rate of 46.2% in installed capacity from 2017 to 2021. As the global new energy vehicle market continues to grow, global power battery installations are expected to grow at a COMPOUND annual growth rate of 36.4% between 2021 and 2026. Therefore, the mainland currently has a mature power battery development market, as well as a relatively long-term development momentum.
In terms of industrial pattern, whether in the global or domestic market, power battery manufacturers have shown a pattern of high concentration of industries. At the international level, the market has long been occupied by several leading enterprises such as CATL, BYD, South Korea's LG, Samsung, Panasonic and SKI.
▲ Power battery whole industry chain map (source: SNE Research)
▲ At the domestic level, the Ningde era occupies more than half of the market with a posture of riding the dust, followed by BYD and Zhongxin Airlines (Source: Head Leopard Research Institute)
From the perspective of the regional distribution of enterprises in the continental power battery industry chain, it is mainly distributed in Guangdong, followed by Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan and other regions; although there are enterprises in other local provinces, the number is very small.
Therefore, for related enterprises in the power battery industry chain, based on the advantages in terms of supply and demand side, industrial chain agglomeration, and leading effect, the layout area is generally recommended to choose the four major regions of Guangdong, Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan and Fujian.
▲ From the perspective of leading enterprises in the industrial chain, there are more representative enterprises in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian, Sichuan, Zhejiang and other places (source: Prospective Research Institute)
Cathode material: ternary lithium, lithium iron phosphate "equal division of the world"
Cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes and diaphragms are the four main materials of power batteries, of which the cathode material accounts for more than 40% of the total cost, and directly determines the battery's endurance, acceleration, fast charging and other core technical issues related to fundamental performance, so the power battery classification is also divided according to the technical route of cathode materials, mainly divided into lithium iron phosphate, ternary lithium batteries [NCA (nickel cobalt aluminum)/ NCM (nickel cobalt manganese)], lithium manganate and lithium titanate batteries four categories.
Among them, lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries occupy a suppressive dominant position in the power battery market, with a market share of more than 99%, and these 99% are basically equal.
▲ Power battery whole industry chain map (source: WIND)
▲ Performance comparison of four types of power batteries (Source: Leopard Research Institute)
If you look dizzy, don't worry, the captain briefly summarized the core characteristics of the two types of mainstream batteries:
· Ternary lithium battery: The biggest advantage of ternary lithium is strong energy density, and the "big killer" of energy density is nickel, and when analyzing Aoyama's "demon nickel" in the previous period, we also mentioned that high nickelization is the future trend of ternary lithium batteries. With this feature, the performance of ternary lithium batteries in terms of endurance, acceleration and fast charging is almost completely crushing other batteries, because it meets the key needs of car owners in vehicle performance, ternary lithium is widely used in new energy passenger cars, especially high-end passenger cars. But the cost of high energy density is relatively low security and relatively high cost.
· Lithium iron phosphate batteries: Its characteristics are almost opposite to ternary lithium, and the advantages of lithium iron phosphate are lower cost and strong safety. But at the same time, subject to the constraints of material characteristics, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate is not as good as that of ternary lithium batteries, so it is slightly inferior in terms of endurance, and even once almost became a "abandoner" in the new energy automobile industry before 2020. However, with its stability, lithium iron phosphate batteries have created a "blood road" in the field of commercial vehicles such as electric buses and electric special vehicles with higher safety requirements.
The battle of the future route: ternary lithium VS lithium iron phosphate "you die and I live" or coexist?
All along, the advantages and disadvantages of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries have been the topic of long-term debate in the new energy automobile industry, and the dispute over the status of these two in the industry is also three ups and three downs, and it is difficult to distinguish between victory and defeat.
In fact, at the beginning of the development of new energy vehicles in the mainland, low-cost, high-life lithium iron phosphate batteries once led the market.
However, with the gradual improvement of domestic new energy vehicle industry policy subsidies in 2017-2018, "high energy density" has become policy-oriented, and domestic automakers have begun to pursue high density and high endurance. The ternary lithium battery has a higher specific energy and specific power, not only more in line with the needs of car owners, but also allows automakers to get more subsidies, so the ternary lithium battery with obvious energy advantages quickly replaced the lithium iron phosphate battery, and soon occupied the mainstream passenger car market. At the same time, the dividends of this wave of policies have also achieved ternary lithium battery manufacturers represented by the Ningde era, laying the giant status of "Ning Wang" in one fell swoop.
However, at present, with the sharp decline of the policy, lithium iron phosphate has sounded the "counter-offensive" horn with its price advantage and safety. One of the representative events is that in March 2020, BYD released the lithium iron phosphate "blade battery", claiming that through technological innovation, it has surpassed the traditional lithium iron phosphate battery and achieved a longer endurance, while using a needle prick test video to show that its safety performance "completed the explosion" of ternary lithium batteries, eliminating the risk of ignition and explosion. Wang Chuanfu personally stood for the blade battery on the spot, claiming that he would correct the industry's irrational pursuit of the energy density of the power battery and "lead the power battery back to the right way", which is undoubtedly the public declaration of lithium iron phosphate on ternary lithium batteries, which immediately triggered a big discussion in the industry.
Nowadays, the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate is fierce, and in 2021, the domestic lithium iron phosphate loading volume has achieved a comprehensive overtake of ternary lithium batteries. From January to February this year, the installed volume of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 43.8% and 55.9% respectively.
▲ Wang Chuanfu claimed at the BYD "blade battery" press conference that the development of power batteries should be "led back to the right path", which once became the biggest marketing event for lithium iron phosphate batteries
However, the dispute between ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate routes is far from over, with technological innovation, ternary lithium batteries will continue to grow and avoid weaknesses, full of competitiveness.
In terms of safety, although the safety performance of ternary lithium is not as good as lithium iron phosphate, the emergence of solid electrolytes provides new ideas for the industry - compared with unstable and flammable liquid electrolytes, solid electrolytes can effectively solve the problem of safe circulation of batteries.
In terms of policy, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Lithium-ion Battery Industry Specification Conditions (2021 Version)" at the end of last year, which set new requirements for energy density - the energy density of energy-based power battery projects should be ≥ 180Wh/kg, and the energy density of battery packs should be ≥ 120Wh/kg. Although this is a challenge for the product optimization of both batteries, the ternary lithium battery with its own energy density advantage has also gained a batch of "good feelings".
Finally, in terms of the market, high-end new energy passenger car products still take the mileage as an important indicator, in this market, ternary lithium batteries are still widely favored and have a solid position.
After the "demon nickel" incident in Qingshan, what are the industrial vanes in the medium and long term?
From the perspective of cathode materials, the future ternary lithium battery will show a more high nickelization trend, and after the "demon nickel" war, the nickel price rises, the cost price of ternary lithium battery soars, and the market changes that have been disturbed are the most obvious feelings that the price of new energy vehicles will rise.
Morgan Stanley estimates that the soaring nickel price will lead to an increase in the production cost of a pure electric vehicle by $1,000. Among them, the most affected is the new energy vehicle equipped with ternary lithium batteries.
However, from the perspective of supply and demand balance, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said that in the context of the epidemic, the use of cars is still a rigid demand, and consumers still maintain an acceptable attitude towards price increases.
So, after the "demon nickel" incident, will ternary lithium batteries gradually lose the favor of the market?
In the short term, due to the soaring cost caused by the upstream nickel price of ternary lithium batteries, it may make lithium iron phosphate batteries become market darlings for a period of time, regardless of the sales end or the production end, the recent will be the main promotion of lithium iron phosphate batteries, publicity channels may start from its dominant safety perspective.
But what cannot be ignored is that not only nickel, the price of lithium is also rising, whether it is lithium iron phosphate or ternary lithium batteries, are bearing the corresponding cost pressure. The cost gap between the two is gradually narrowing, and in the long run, the dispute between ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries will eventually return to the energy performance of the product itself.
So it's not just a matter of nickel or ternary lithium batteries. For the soaring price of nickel under capital operation, considering its speculative nature, there is still a possibility of falling in the short term, but the real problem is that the rise in raw material prices has become a long-term pain point in the entire automotive industry chain.
▲ Ideal Car founder Li wants to "spit out" the voice of car companies on social media: the price increase of battery costs is too fatal
Although the impact of the "demon nickel" incident is limited, it has sounded a wake-up call for the entire industry - in the future, will new energy vehicle companies have the ability to continue to pay for the rise in raw material prices? To what extent can consumers accept cost pass-through? In the long run, this is not only an economic problem, but also requires a sense of political smell - in the fragile geopolitical environment and the uncertainty brought about by the epidemic, local governments and enterprises need to ensure the stability of the supply chain, multi-point layout in advance to reduce the risk of upstream transmission, and car companies that are plagued by costs also need to seek long-term support from policies, capital and the market, and do enough coping strategies, because the real "demon nickel" crisis may be lurking in the near future.
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