■ Xia Jinbiao, reporter of China Economic Times
Due to the rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the price increase of new energy vehicles is still spreading. A few days ago, WEILAI, a new car-making force that has not chosen to increase the price, finally raised the starting price of ES8, ES6 and EC6 versions by 10,000 yuan from May 10, 2022. Tesla CEO Musk is also helpless in the face of rising upstream raw material prices, he recently said on social media that because the cost of manufacturing the metal of key components of power batteries has become very high, Tesla may directly and large-scale involvement in lithium mining and refining business.
The main raw materials of power batteries include cathode materials, anode materials, diaphragms and electrolytes, etc., which are greatly affected by the prices of bulk commodities such as lithium, nickel, cobalt or chemical raw materials. Since the second half of 2021, the main raw materials of power batteries, lithium, cobalt and nickel, have risen sharply. Data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that compared with the beginning of last year, the average price of cathode materials for mainstream ternary lithium batteries rose by 108.9%, the average price of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode materials rose by 182.5%, the average price of ternary lithium battery electrolyte rose by 146.2%, and the electrolyte of lithium iron phosphate batteries rose by an average of 190.2%.
Photo credit:Xinhua News Agency
In the past year, global sales of new energy vehicles doubled by 6.75 million units, of which the production and sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China increased by about 160% year-on-year, with sales reaching 3.52 million units. Due to the optimistic development prospects, the industry's forecast for the sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland this year has been adjusted from 5 million to 5.5 million or even 6 million.
However, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased significantly, and the supply is difficult to keep up with in time. Affected by the epidemic, the expansion plan of related raw material production enterprises has been forced to shelve or postpone; in addition, although there are more than a thousand battery manufacturers in the mainland, only about ten companies can produce power batteries on a large scale, and the battery production line has the characteristics of customization, and the production capacity is restricted by factors such as model sales.
It is understood that the cycle of power battery expansion takes 6-8 months, raw material production generally takes one and a half years, and lithium ore and other mining capacity increases need two and a half years to three years. Since last year, the global demand for new energy vehicles has grown rapidly, the demand for raw materials such as power batteries has been enlarged, and the imbalance between supply and demand of power battery raw materials has been further aggravated under the stimulation of high sales expectations of new energy vehicles this year.
It should be pointed out that the rise in battery costs this time, as well as the artificial factors of capital speculation. Industry insiders believe that new energy vehicles are currently one of the hottest and most promising industries, attracting all kinds of capital to compete for the end, and the price of power battery raw materials has soared, which is also one of the performances of the industry's overheating. This round of raw material prices rises beyond the norm, deviating from the normal supply and demand relationship, is an irrational rise, and there are unfair competition behaviors such as hoarding and deliberate price gouging in order to seize the last window period before the expansion of production capacity.
It should be noted that after a long period of market cultivation, the development of the mainland new energy automobile industry has gradually changed from policy-driven to policy-driven and market-driven, and has entered a new stage of comprehensive market-oriented development, which is in a leading position in the world as a whole, and the development results are not easy to come by. If the irrational price increase of power battery raw materials becomes more and more intense, it is bound to lead to a sharp increase in the price of new energy vehicles, which will adversely affect the sales of new energy vehicles and the development of the industry.
In this regard, the relevant departments have begun to take action. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it will focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately accelerate the development progress of domestic lithium, nickel and other resources, and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and price gouging. Recently, the Department of Raw Material Industry and the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Price Supervision and Inspection bureau of the State Administration of Market Supervision and the Bureau of Anti-Unfair Competition, specially organized and held a symposium on the operation of the lithium industry and the price increase of upstream materials for power batteries to carry out the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices.
The industry expects that with the heavy blows of the regulatory authorities to crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and price gouging, the supply environment at the raw material industry will gradually recover, and it is expected that the second half of this year is expected to return to the normal price range.
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