(Report Producer/Author: Guojin Securities, Chen Chuanhong)
First, market overview: Battery safety is increasingly valued, giving birth to lithium battery coating high growth track
1.1 The coating material is small and strong, and the escort battery is promising
The coating process improves the performance of polyvinyl film. Coating polyolefin diaphragms with ceramics and other nano materials or using organic materials makes the coating diaphragm have the advantages of high thermal stability, low heat shrinkage, and high wettability with electrolyte, and the coating process is increasingly valued. The coating modification adheres the functional coating to the diaphragm surface through an adhesive to improve its thermal stability. For the thermal stability test of the polyvinyl film coated with boumite, when the temperature is heated to 170 degrees, the diaphragm has undergone significant deformation, the coating film has almost no shrinkage, and the coating process can improve the low melting point of the diaphragm and the shortcomings of poor safety. For the polyvinyl film coated with PVDF before and after comparison, the polyvinyl film presents a typical dendritic microporous structure of the wet diaphragm, after the surface is coated with PVDF organic particles, a layer of PVDF coating layer is attached to the polyvinyl film, forming a large number of micropores, improving the electrolyte retention rate, which is conducive to the reduction of the internal resistance of lithium batteries and the improvement of discharge power.
The edge coating of the pole pieces is of great significance to the safety and yield of the battery. Materials such as Boumite can also be used to coat the pole pieces of lithium battery cells to improve the safety performance and yield of lithium batteries. In the case of BYD, its latest blade battery will be coated with a boehmite material on the edge of the cell's pole. Pole plate coating can be applied to the positive and negative poles of the battery respectively:
1) Positive electrode edge coating: Since the positive electrode sheet is generally smaller than the negative electrode sheet, the edge of the wide edge of the pole piece is prone to burrs in the cutting, and once the diaphragm is pierced into the negative electrode, it will cause a battery short circuit. The surface of the boehmite is smooth, and after coating, the positive edge can be filled, making the cut surface smooth and burr-free. In the industry, the industry took the lead in using Boehmite for cathode edge coating, which has formed a demonstration effect, and successfully introduced downstream BATTERY FACTORIES SUCH ASD and EWELL Lithium Energy.
2) Negative electrode sheet edge coating: the negative electrode surface is rough, after coating with ultra-small particle size Boehmite, the negative electrode pore becomes uniform, which can improve the electrolyte affinity, so that the lithium ion is more smooth in the charge and discharge process. Negative edge coating has not yet formed the mainstream, and is currently used in ATL's consumer batteries.
1.2 Battery factory coating film permeability is improved, water-based coating has the advantage of low cost
The diaphragm coating ratio is more than 70%, which has basically penetrated the mainstream battery factory. According to GGII, the proportion of continental coated diaphragms in 2019 was 53%, a rapid increase from 37% in 2015, and we expect this proportion to increase to more than 70%. At present, the ternary power battery has basically all adopted the separator coating technology, the coating ratio of LFP batteries is about 60%, and the application of coating technology has gradually improved; in the field of consumer batteries, separator coating is mainly used in high-end fields such as 3C batteries. Global mainstream battery companies such as CATL, LG New Energy, Panasonic, BYD, Ewell Lithium Energy, and Zhongxin Aviation have widely adopted separator coating technology.
Waterborne coatings with low cost advantages have occupied the mainstream market. Downstream battery factories demand for coated separators driven by the following two ways: 1) cost-driven: considering the cost performance, generally used in lithium iron phosphate batteries, small power batteries and energy storage batteries, etc., coated separators can ensure basic heat resistance, air permeability, but adhesion, liquid aspiration is general. Due to the cost drive, the water-based coating process with the advantage of price and performance accounts for about 70% of the coating market. 2) Performance drive: mainly used in high-end ternary or consumer batteries, requiring high energy density per unit area or volume, and coating film can be enough to ensure battery safety. Generally, the method of oil-based coating and oil-water mixing can ensure heat resistance, liquid absorption, air permeability, and thinness of the diaphragm at the same time, but it is more expensive than the sole water-based coating.
The proportion of inorganic coating materials in the coating materials reaches 90.32%. In the coating material, the inorganic coating with Boehmite and alumina as the main coating materials is more mature than the organic coating and organic-inorganic hybrid coating technology represented by PVDF and aramid, and the tensile strength and heat shrinkage of the inorganic coating diaphragm are better, while the cost is lower and the economic feasibility is better. In 2019, according to EVTank, inorganic coating materials for lithium batteries in Mainland China accounted for 90.32% of the coating materials.
1.3 The coating type is rich in structure, and the performance is related to battery safety
There are many kinds of coating structures to meet different battery requirements. At present, the mainstream coating method of the market includes the following six kinds: 1) single-sided single-layer inorganic coating, the coating process is coated on one side of the diaphragm with a thickness of about 2um ceramic particles (Boumite, alumina), which is the mainstream of the current market; 2) double-sided single-layer inorganic coating, overseas coating film application Ratio is high; 3) double-sided single-layer organic matter & inorganic coating, organic coating material selection is PVDF, aramid, PMMA, the current application ratio is larger than PVDF. Since water will cause damage to almost all cathode materials, especially for high nickel cathodes, lithium dissolution is very strong, which will lead to an increase in the pH value of the slurry and a decrease in capacity, when coating, organic matter is coated with oily solvents at one end of the diaphragm near the positive electrode, and inorganic substances are coated with waterborne solvents at one end near the negative electrode of the diaphragm; 4) single-sided double-layer organic matter & inorganic coating, the coating process coats a layer of inorganic matter on one side, and then coats a layer of organic matter, and double-coated The advantage is that the organic coating on the inorganic matter can prevent the inorganic powder from falling off; 5) double-sided double-layer organic & inorganic coating; 6) double-sided single-layer organic & inorganic mixing coating, the coating process of ceramic particles mixed in PVDF melting liquid.
The key performance indicators of coating materials are closely related to the safety of lithium batteries. Inorganic coating materials In the evaluation criteria, purity, magnetic foreign matter, median particle size, etc. are the core indicators, of which the control of magnetic foreign bodies affects the probability of the self-discharge phenomenon of lithium batteries, which is related to the safety performance of the battery, and the median particle size determines the charge and discharge efficiency of the battery. Among the evaluation criteria of organic coating materials, the molecular weight distribution, crystallinity, mechanical properties and magnetic foreign body content of particles are the core indicators.
1.4 Coating materials market space calculation: more than 14 billion yuan in 2025
The coating materials market space is expected to exceed 14 billion in 2025. Considering that different types of coating structures account for different market share, it is assumed that in 2022, double-sided single-layer coating (inorganic) / double-sided single-layer or single-sided double-layer coating (organic & inorganic) / single-sided single-layer coating (inorganic) / other coating (organic & inorganic ) accounted for 9% / 19% / 67%/ 5% respectively. Assuming that the total demand for 2022/2023/2024/2025 global lithium battery is 693/1078/1531/2231GWh, at a yield rate of 70%, the corresponding global coating diaphragm demand is 157/236/326/462 billion square meters, with an annual compound growth rate of more than 40%, corresponding to the demand for inorganic coating materials for diaphragms of 11.66/17.32/24.17/35.20 million tons, respectively The demand for organic coating materials for diaphragms is 1.64/2.62/4.34/74,600 tons, respectively; assuming that the single GWh used for the edge coating of the polar plates is 50 tons, the permeability of the polar edge coating is 51%/58%/67%/77%, respectively, and the demand for the coating materials on the edge of the polar plates is 1.76/3.14/5.12/8.59 million tons. Assuming that the average price of inorganic coating materials is 19,000-20,000 yuan / ton, the average price of organic coating materials is 70,000-9 million yuan / ton, and the price of polar edge coating materials is 19,000-20,000 yuan / ton, according to our calculations, 2022/2023/2024/2025, the coating material market space is 39.04/59.52/88.84/140.92 million tons, with an annual compound growth rate of more than 50%.
1.5 Cost estimation of coating materials: It is optimistic that BoumeLite has long-term cost advantages
Inorganic coating materials have low costs and the highest aramid coating costs. We selected mainstream coating materials for cost comparison, including boehmite, imported (Japan) alumina, domestic alumina, battery coating grade PVDF, para-aramid, PMMA. Assumptions: 1) 1GWh coating diaphragm dosage of 0.17 million square meters; 2) coating film yield rate of 70%; 3) inorganic coating material single layer coating thickness of 2um, organic coating material single layer coating thickness of 1.5um, of which PMMA single coating thickness of 2.5um; 4) unit price of Boehmite / imported alumina / domestic alumina / PVDF / aramid / PMMA are 2/3.5 / 1.9 / 10 / 20 / 1.85 million yuan / ton; 5) labor, energy consumption, depreciation costs, Boehmite/imported alumina/domestic alumina/PVDF/aramid/PMMA are 0.2/0.2/0.2/0.35/0.4/0.2 yuan/flat, respectively. According to our calculations, the unit material cost of Boumite/imported alumina/domestic alumina/PVDF/aramid/PMMA is 0.17/0.35/0.21/0.38/0.62/0.20 yuan/flat, and the total cost of single GWh is 296/595/360/648/1049/337 million yuan/GWh, respectively, and Boume has the lowest single flat coating material cost and single GWh coating cost.
Coating material cost analysis 1: The cost of coating material can be divided into raw material cost and processing cost. Among them: raw material costs include boehmite, alumina, PVDF, PMMA, aramid and other coating materials, as well as thickeners, dispersants, adhesives and other additives procurement costs; processing costs include water-based processing or oil-based processing involved in labor, energy consumption, depreciation costs, depending on the choice of solvent. We split the raw material costs and processing costs separately.
Coating material cost analysis two: raw material cost structure analysis. By comparing the raw material cost structures of Boumite, aramid and PVDF, we conclude that the manufacturing cost of Boumelite raw materials accounts for the largest proportion, and the long-term cost reduction space is better than other materials.
1) Boume Stone: With reference to the 2021 announcement of One Stone Tong "Issuer and SponsorIng Institutions Reply opinions (II)", Boume Stone manufacturing expenses accounted for 35.6%, raw materials / combustion power accounted for 38.2% / 26.2% respectively, considering that domestic Boume stone manufacturing has just started, manufacturers in the construction of the project consolidation led to a significant increase in depreciation expenses, coupled with the new production line production efficiency in the early stage of production needs to be optimized, product unit costs increased; Depreciation and labor costs in boehmite manufacturing costs have a large room for decline.
2) Aramid: With reference to Taihe New Materials 2020 financial report, aramid material raw materials accounted for 67%, manufacturing costs / combustion power accounted for 20.3% / 12.7%, aramid raw material costs accounted for relatively high, the current domestic head companies such as Taihe New Materials through acyl chloride self-production, increase procurement, old production capacity, and reduce investment density to reduce raw materials, labor, energy consumption costs; it is expected that the comprehensive cost of aramid materials will remain declining.
3) PVDF: With reference to the 2021 financial report of Dongguang, PVDF raw materials account for about 62.9%, and manufacturing costs/combustion power account for 20.3%/20.5% respectively. In the next 1-2 years, the price of PVDF is expected to remain high, mainly R142b by the national limit, can be evaluated, environmental impact assessment to achieve high difficulty, 22-23 years of new production capacity is limited; at the same time, lithium battery grade PVDF requires more than 20-30 evaluation indicators, ordinary PVDF is only about 3-5, according to the caliber of listed companies only 30% of PVDF in line with the battery level. However, in the long run, considering that the manufacturing expenses of R142b, the main material of PVDF, account for more than 47%, and the current profit margin of PVDF is above 60% (according to the caliber of 150,000 yuan / ton of diaphragm coating), we believe that the cost of PVDF in the long term will decline.
Coating material cost analysis three: processing cost structure analysis. Processing costs include water-based processing costs or oil-based processing costs, depending on the choice of solvent. Water-based processing is less difficult, at room temperature the coating material is mixed in water to make a suspension, while oil-based processing requires high temperature organic matter melted in a solvent, during which the polymer is glassy and converted into an elastomer, no longer a rigid substance, the process is more complex and difficult to control than water-based processing. According to the calculation, the cost of water-based coating processing is about 0.2 yuan / flat, of which the labor / energy consumption / depreciation ratio is 40%/ 40% / 20%, respectively, and the difference between the coating materials is not large. We focus on the analysis of oil-based coating processing costs, of which PVDF coating processing costs of about 0.35 yuan / flat, aramid coating processing costs of about 0.4 yuan / flat, the difference between the two is mainly reflected in the higher labor cost of aramid (0.28 yuan / flat), accounting for 70% of the total processing cost, PVDF labor costs of about 0.2 yuan / flat, accounting for 57%. At present, the domestic aramid coating has not yet been mass-produced, the coating process has been monopolized overseas for many years, and the domestic aramid coating has higher technical and experience requirements for workers, and the corresponding labor costs are higher; with the accelerated development of aramid localization, we believe that the proportion of labor costs will decline, which is expected to improve the comprehensive cost of products.
Summary of coating material costs: It is optimistic that BoumeLite has long-term cost advantages. According to the above analysis, the water-based solvent processing cost of boehmite is lower (0.2 yuan / flat, oil-based solvent processing cost is 0.35-0.4 yuan / flat), and the boumite raw material itself still has a large room for decline (manufacturing and energy consumption costs account for more than 60% of the raw material cost), we believe that the low cost advantage of boumite in the medium and long term will be maintained. At present, the cost of raw materials and labor costs of aramid coating is relatively large (56%, 29%), and we believe that with the continuous advancement of localization, this cost will continue to improve. In addition, the aramid plant to the coating plant contains solvents in the aramid solution, the downstream diaphragm plant environmental protection treatment cost is higher, at present, Taihe New Materials has the intention to cooperate with the diaphragm plant on solvent treatment, while the future or will be directly delivered to aramid materials, such costs are expected to improve, aramid price ratio will be gradually reflected, enhance the price competitiveness of products. (Source: Future Think Tank)
Second, the inorganic coating market: the penetration rate continues to rise, and Boume Stone comes to the top
2.1 Inorganic coating has many benefits, and the share of Boumelite rises
Inorganic coating materials have a high proportion of alumina & Boehmite applications. Inorganic coating is more mature than organic coating and organic inorganic hybrid coating technology, and the tensile strength and heat shrinkage rate of inorganic coating diaphragm are better, while the cost is lower and the economic feasibility is better. Inorganic coating materials can improve the insulation of the diaphragm, reduce the short-circuit rate of lithium batteries, and improve the yield rate and safety, occupying a dominant position in various types of coating materials. Inorganic coating materials, Boumite and alumina occupy the main market, in recent years, the share of Boumite continues to increase, while the downstream feedback part of the battery factory in and car companies to do raw material change certification, the Boomite as a coating material instead of alumina; in 2020, Boumite in the inorganic coating market share of about 41%, we estimate that 2022/2023/2025, Boumite share will increase to 52%/60%/79%.
2.2 Boumite has excellent cost performance and forms a substitute for alumina
Boumite has an absolute advantage over alumina in terms of performance indicators. As a ceramic coating material, alumina can significantly improve the comprehensive performance of polyolefin separators, but alumina has problems such as large hardness, high cost, and serious wear on equipment, which affects its application as a ceramic coating material in battery separators to a certain extent. As an emerging ceramic coating material, Boumite has the characteristics of small hardness, low cost, and less water-soluble sodium ions, which can make up for the lack of alumina as a polyolefin diaphragm coating material.
1) Areal density: The ish density of alumina is 3.9g/m2, and the dough density of Boumite is only 3.05g/m2, and the application of Boumite will significantly reduce the total weight of ceramic coatings and the manufacturing cost of lithium batteries.
2) Specific surface area & water-soluble Na+: The specific surface area of boumite is 5m2/g, which is lower than the 6.3m2/g of alumina, while the content of water-soluble Na+ of boehmite (0.002%) is significantly lower than that of alumina (0.036%), which can reduce the absorption of moisture and have a positive impact on the improvement of the electrochemical properties of lithium batteries.
3) Mohs hardness: Alumina has a Mohs hardness of 9, which is 3 times that of Boehmite, which can reduce the impact of ceramic coating materials on coating equipment, thereby reducing equipment loss costs.
Boumite coatings offer even better mechanical properties. Lithium battery separator needs to have a certain mechanical strength to prevent safety problems caused by diaphragm failure, polyethylene diaphragm coated with boumite has higher tensile strength and better elongation at break than polyethylene diaphragm coated with alumina, in addition, the diaphragm coated with boumite also has more excellent puncture strength and peeling strength, in summary, compared with alumina, Bühmite has more excellent mechanical properties. The original polyethylene diaphragm undergoes significant heat shrinkage at 130 degrees, and the coated diaphragm remains in its original state without deformation. When the temperature rises to 170 degrees, the alumina coated diaphragm also shrinks greatly, and the size of the boumite coated diaphragm changes almost nothing. Boumite has more excellent thermal stability, mainly boumite ion coating and matrix diaphragm has a better interfacial adhesion, so that boumite coating acts as a supporting skeleton to resist the melting and shrinkage of polyvinyl film at high temperatures.
Boume stone coating film has better electrolyte hydrophilic properties. In lithium batteries, the electrolyte is the carrier of the lithium ion migrating before the positive and negative electrodes, the electrolyte is mainly stored between the micropores of the diaphragm, and the amount of electrolyte that can be stored in the micropores of the diaphragm is called the aspiration rate of the diaphragm. Compared with alumina, the PE base film coated with aluminum compounds showed better affinity with the electrolyte, compared with alumina, the suction rate of boumite coated diaphragm was higher, reaching 187%, while the aspiration rate of PE base film and alumina coating film was 126% and 144%, respectively. Under the hydrophilic contact angle test, the PE diaphragm has poor affinity with water, the contact angle is greater than 177 degrees, and the boumite coating film shows better wetting performance than the alumina coating film, and the hydrophilic performance with the electrolyte is better.
Boehmite is more cost-effective and forms a substitute for alumina. Inorganic slurry using water-based slurry, the cost of which can be roughly divided into slurry cost + manufacturing cost, wherein the slurry includes ceramic materials, water, adhesives, dispersants, thickeners; manufacturing costs include labor, energy consumption, depreciation. According to estimates, the cost of single-flat ceramic coating materials accounts for a relatively large proportion of ceramics, labor, energy consumption and depreciation costs, accounting for about 45%, 18%, 18%, 9% respectively. Under the current price, the unit cost of Boumite and alumina is not much different: according to the unit price of Boume, imported alumina, and domestic alumina, which are 2.0, 3.5, and 19,000 yuan / ton, the single flat cost is 0.37, 0.55, 0.41 yuan / flat, of which the single flat material cost is 0.17, 0.35, 0.21 yuan / flat, and the manufacturing cost is about 0.20 yuan / flat, including processing, equipment depreciation and other expenses. Considering that the performance index advantage of Böhmite is stronger than that of alumina, and the cost difference between the two is small, we believe that Boumeite is more cost-effective and forms an alternative to alumina.
2.3 The effective production capacity of BoumeLite is limited, and the market is slightly in short supply
Boume Stone's manufacturing process is complex, and only a few companies have mastered the core process. Not all boumite can be used as battery separators, the real boumite is pure γ phase, crystallization is irregular, the particle size distribution is uniform, and the ideal ceramic coating can be obtained. γ-Boumite manufacturing process is complex and difficult, requiring precise control of production process parameters, reducing the introduction of magnetic foreign bodies, and deep understanding of raw material feeding quantity, reaction parameters, reaction temperature, reaction flow and other processes, and there are only a few enterprises in the world that master this technology. According to the powder circle, there are currently more than 20 domestic Boumite production enterprises, only Anhui Yishitong Material Technology Co., Ltd. and China Aluminum Zhengzhou Nonferrous Metals Research Institute Co., Ltd. and other few enterprises, have been able to industrialize the application of lithium battery ceramic diaphragm Boumite products.
Effective production can be released less, and the supply and demand of boelite is tightening. According to our calculations, the 2021/2022/2023 Boumite supply and demand gap (supply-demand) is -0.25/-0.18/0.29 million tons, and the global supply and demand gap only slightly exceeds the demand; the supply and demand gap in the single quarter of 2022 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 is -0.02/-0.03/-0.05/-0.08 million tons, respectively, because most of the global effective supply in 2022 comes from Yishitong, and the release of Yishitong's production capacity is concentrated in the second half of the year, I We expect that Burgite will be in short supply.
2.4 BoumeLite market space estimate: more than 6.6 billion in 2025
In 2025, the market space of Boume Stone will exceed 6.6 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 60%. The specific calculation process is as follows: Suppose 1) 2022/2023/2024/2025 Boumite penetration rate in inorganic coating materials is 52%/60%/68%/79% respectively; 2) The penetration rate of boumite coating material on the edge of the cathode sheet is 100% (the positive electrode coated boumite began in the Ningde era, before the cathode electrode sheet was not coated, according to the feedback of the industrial chain, the positive electrode coating 100% is boumite); the negative electrode edge coating is not large-scale, and its market share is not considered. We have calculated that: 2022/2023/2024/2025, the global demand for lithium battery coating material Boumite (including diaphragm coating + pole coating) is expected to be 7.33/12.67/20.46/34.39 million tons; 2022/2023/2024/2025 Boume market space forecast is 14.67/25.10/40.13/66.76 billion yuan, with an annual compound growth rate of more than 60%.
Single-sided inorganic coating conforms to the mainstream market demand, and Boumelite is the most elastic in demand. With the improvement of lithium battery energy density requirements, the thickness of the diaphragm tends to be thinner, and the single-sided inorganic coating can not only meet the requirements of the coating film but also ensure the safety performance of the battery, while the coating cost is the lowest, which corresponds to the cost reduction needs of the lithium battery industry chain; according to our calculations, the market share of single-sided inorganic coating is expected to be more than 60%. Considering that boumite has obvious advantages over alumina in terms of performance indicators and cost performance, and will form a replacement for alumina, we believe that boumite is the most elastic coating material in the future of lithium battery coating materials, and the growth rate is expected to be more than 60%.
2.5 Boumite product update iteration, high concentration slurry is expected to be introduced into the market
The integration of boumite powder pulp is the future development trend. In 2016, Yishitong took the initiative to promote the slurry program to customers, due to the harsh requirements of the battery cell on the manufacturing process, customers hope to purchase powder to master more production links in the preparation of slurry, and accumulate know-how in the coating process. In recent years, boumite powder has developed to the current level of 10,000 tons, the application continues to be stable, and downstream customers have put forward the demand for high concentration slurry directly provided by boumite suppliers, so as to reduce powder packaging and reduce the mixing process to reduce costs.
The barriers to slurry integration are higher. The integration of boehmite slurry requires the magnetic foreign body content in the slurry to reach the same level as the powder, and the integration system directly grows the boehmite crystal in the liquid, which requires long-term experience accumulation for the process control of the transformation of the boumite. In addition, due to the different solid content of the Boomite slurry required by different downstream customers, it is necessary to match different coating processes, which is higher than the barrier to direct supply of Boumite powder.
Slurry integration reduces costs and improves efficiency, saving energy consumption redundancy in the industrial chain. Slurry integration improves manufacturing costs for Boomite producers without the need to re-dry the liquid Boomite slurry to make a Boomite powder, saving significant energy consumption. In addition, because the slurry is sold in a liquid state, it can save outer packaging such as plastic bags, pallets, etc., while eliminating the cost of manual handling, splitting and cleaning of packaging for downstream customers. In order to save the cost of the industrial chain and enhance the competitiveness of products, we expect that downstream customers will fully benefit from the launch of slurry integration, and the penetration rate of slurry will continue to increase.
2.6 Yishitong: the global Boume stone leader, deeply bound to the Ningde era
Boume Stone has the first share, surpassing the former global leader. In 2019, the total market share of One Stone and Germany Nabaltec AG exceeded 70%, accounting for 36%/37% respectively; in 2021, One Stone became the global Boehm Stone leader.
1) Yishitong: According to GGII, 2021 The company's global share of Boume Stone exceeds 50%, ranking first in the world, and its products are mainly used in power lithium batteries.
2) Nabaltec AG, Germany: The company was established in 1994, the main products are aluminum hydroxide and alumina, and the global share in 2019 is 37% (36% of One Stone), which is the former Boume Stone faucet.
3) Chinalco Zhengzhou Research Institute: The company is a major domestic Boumite producer, its products are mainly used in the field of catalysts and flame retardants, a small amount of applications in power lithium battery separator coating; in 2018, the company's Boumite share was 5%, and in 2019 it fell slightly to 2%.
The core layout of Boehm Stone, revenue and profit growth steadily. Yishitong's main business includes lithium battery coating materials, electronic communication function filling materials, low smoke halogen-free flame retardant materials, and the revenue proportion in 2021 is 78.27%/15.71%/6.02%, of which lithium battery coating materials are mainly Boehmite. 21 years of Yishitong lithium battery coating material product gross profit margin of 42.67%, according to the prospectus of Yishitong, the company's net profit in the first half of 2021 increased significantly and the increase was greater than the increase in operating income, mainly due to the company's production and marketing scale at the same time the scale effect further appeared, coupled with the company's continuous promotion of cost reduction management, the comprehensive gross profit margin increased over the same period last year. We expect gross margins to continue to improve as the scale of the Company's products steadily increases.
The production capacity of Yishitong Borm Stone is expected to reach 50,000-60,000 tons by the end of 2022. In 2018/2019/2020, the company's lithium battery coating materials (mainly Boehmite) production capacity of 2973/4121/8149 tons; in 2021, the company's production capacity is nearly 20,000 tons, and the production capacity is expected to reach 50,000-60,000 tons by the end of 2022. In 2023, We expect boumite production to be 100,000/140,000 tons in 23/24, far ahead of other Boume stone manufacturers in the world.
Yishi Tongboum Stone has outstanding performance in technical indicators. Compared with the APYRAL series of Boelite of Nabaltec in Germany and the HBO Boomite products of Chinalco Zhengzhou Research Institute, the BG series of Boehmite products of Yishitong are more prominent in terms of technical indicators. According to the prospectus of Yishitong, the company's Boume stone products magnetic foreign bodies can be reached
Yishitong is the core supplier of Boum Stone in the Ningde era. Yishitong is the core supplier of Boum stone products in the Ningde era, and in 2019, the Ningde era accounted for 42.45% of the final household income of the lithium battery coating material of Yishitong. In addition, the company entered the supplier system of new energy technology (ATL), Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Tianjin Lishen, Xinwanda and many other leading lithium battery manufacturing enterprises at home and abroad, and the company has established long-term cooperative relations with lithium battery separator manufacturers such as Pu Tailai, Xingyuan Material, Enjie Shares, etc. In the international market, overseas customers such as Samsung SDI and W-Scope have clearly stated that they will increase the purchase of One Stone Boom Stone, and in addition, One Stone Is also connecting with customers such as Ski in South Korea.
Layout core patents, build process moat. Yishitong has a number of patents related to boehmite manufacturing, involving powder particle size control, morphology control, alumina softening, magnetic foreign body detection, ultra-fine ion cleaning technology, ultra-fine powder surface nano-coating technology, fluidized bed airflow grinding iron-free crushing technology, etc. As of December 31, 2020, the company has obtained 11 invention patents including boumite preparation technology, Low-a high-purity English for memory encapsulation, Low-a high-purity alumina preparation technology, fluidized bed airflow grinding iron-free crushing technology, lightweight spherical silica preparation technology, ultra-fine flower calcium borate flame retardant water bath-hydrothermal linkage synthesis and other 9 utility model patents. At the same time, because the company has a large number of technical know-how on materials, such technical know-how is not suitable for patent application in a short period of time, the company will accumulate experience in production processes, formulas and other core technologies as the core technology applied to product production. (Source: Future Think Tank)
Third, the organic coating market: PVDF prices are high, and the substitution logic is clear
3.1 The high iteration of battery energy density has spawned the demand for organic coating
Battery energy density iteration drives organic coating requirements. The choice of coating material is a combination of firmness & breathability, heat resistance & suction:
1) Firmness vs breathability: Ceramic inorganic substances have good air permeability, but they have no adhesion, and they need to use glue to glue the inorganic substances to the diaphragm, if the product quality is not good, there may be depowdering, resulting in uneven coating, causing safety hazards in the battery. Organic matter is soft, good adhesion, PMMA, PVDF, etc. itself is a glue, can effectively solve the problem of firmness, but the corresponding air permeability is poor, so the general use of inorganic mixed coating, taking into account the firmness and breathability.
2) Heat resistance vs aspiration: The heat resistance of ceramic inorganic substances is higher than that of organic substances, but its suction performance is weaker than that of organic substances, and organic matter has excellent electrolyte compatibility. Organic matter melted in an oily solvent, the coating can be very thin at about 1 m, while the organic matter has good electrolyte compatibility, improve the battery energy density, with the ternary, high nickel and other pursuit of high-end battery production capacity further release, we expect that the demand for organic coating materials will continue to grow.
Organic matter has limitations in terms of high temperature resistance and mechanical strength. The thermal stability of the diaphragm is not significantly improved by applying organic matter alone, and the safety of the battery cannot be better guaranteed, and the organic matter is generally mixed with the inorganic material, or the inorganic material coating is combined with the coating. Compared with PE-based film, alumina/boumite coating film, PVDF coating film has a lower contact angle and shows better electrolyte affinity, at the same time, the porosity of PVDF coating film is 61.4%, which is better than inorganic coating film, and the main PVDF organic coating can provide additional pore channels for the electrolyte, significantly improving the aspiration rate of the diaphragm. In addition, the interconnection and long-space surface morphology of the PVDF coating increase the ionic conductivity of the coating film, which is higher than that of the inorganic coating film. Single PVDF coating film also has shortcomings, its tensile strength, elongation at break are not as good as ceramic coating film, mainly because the mechanical strength of the organic polymer is affected by crystallinity, PVDF semi-crystalline (55.93%) properties result in its tensile strength can not be significantly improved.
Functional complementarity can be achieved by combining organic and inorganic coatings. Organic coating materials include PVDF, PMMA, aramid, etc., with high adhesion, suction and liquid retention capacity, which can effectively reduce the internal resistance of the diaphragm and improve the electrochemical properties. Due to the limitations of PVDF and PMMA's own heat resistance and air permeability, organic matter is generally combined with inorganic matter, and common combination forms include double-sided multi-layer coating, single-sided multi-layer coating, single-sided mixing and coating.
3.2 Organic coating materials market space estimates: nearly 7 billion in 2025
The market space for organic coatings is expected to be nearly 7 billion in 2025. Considering that aramid and PVDF are substitutes in organic materials, it is assumed that: 1) in 2022/2023/2024/2025, the application of PVDF in organic coating accounted for 57%/52%/48%/44%, PMMA accounted for 36%/37%/37%/35%, and aramid accounted for 7%/10%/15%/21% respectively; the reason is that considering the high price of PVDF, PMMA will form a replacement for PVDF in the short term, but because of this PMMA itself is not good in physical properties, and the share is expected to decline in the later period; at the same time, considering that the performance of aramid is better than PVDF, and the price gap has been narrowed, it is expected that the share of aramid will increase for a long time; 2) the average price of organic coated materials is 7.46/7.24/7.24/7.49, and the price is the price-weighted average of PVDF, aramid and PMMA. We expect that in 2022/2023/2024/2025, the global organic coating materials market space will be 12.85/21.05/36.62/68.64 billion yuan, with an annual compound growth rate of more than 60%.
3.3 PVDF prices remain high, and aramid & PMMA forms an alternative
PVDF & PMMA is currently the mainstream organic coating material. At present, PVDF and PMMA occupy the main organic coating materials market, which is expected to account for about 62%/33% respectively, and aramids account for 5% left and right. Considering that the market price of PVDF has risen further, and the properties of aramid materials have shown obvious advantages, PMMA has shown obvious cost performance, we expect that the proportion of PVDF will continue to decline; with the further breakthrough of the localization process of aramid materials, some domestic manufacturers have achieved large-scale mass production, we expect that the market share of aramid materials will continue to rise; due to the poor thermal resistance of PMMA itself, we expect PMMA to replace part of the PVDF dosage in the short term. However, its long-term application in diaphragm coating has limited upside space.
PVDF prices remain high, and the logic of aramid & PMMA substitution is clear. PVDF is a traditional organic coating material with low internal resistance, high (thickness/porosity) uniformity, good mechanical properties, and good chemical and electrochemical properties. Due to the dual demand drive of downstream lithium batteries and photovoltaics, and the superimposed dual control policy restrictions, the supply gap of PVDF has been expanding since 20q4, and the price of products has continued to rise. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the current battery-grade PVDF price has risen from about 90,000 yuan / ton before to about 400,000 yuan / ton, of which the diaphragm coating grade PVDF price is 100,000-200,000 yuan / ton. We believe that the price of battery-grade PVDF does not see a correction in the medium term, compared with aramid, PMMA and other materials to lose cost performance, there is a trend of being replaced in the future.
Aramid is currently the only organic material that can be coated individually. Due to the good consistency of aramid and no particles, the coating is very thin between 1μm-2μm, while the PVDF mixing is usually above 2μm (PVDF+ ceramic), and the lightness of aramid is not currently available in other materials. In addition, according to the official website of LanKetu, the heat-resistant temperature of aramid is 400 degrees, the heat shrinkage at 180 degrees is less than 5%, it is not flammable and explosive, it meets the needs of high-end batteries, and is currently the only organic material that can maintain high performance by coating alone without inorganic materials.
Under the trend of PVDF price increase, the cost performance of aramid is highlighted. Aramid performs better than PVDF as a coating material. Aramid fiber has a low weight, and the density is only about 1.44g/cm3, the coating layer can be very thin and light; at the same time, PVDF/PMMA due to the limitations of heat resistance need to be coated with inorganic substances, the coating thickness is more than 2mu, the aramid thermal resistance is 400 degrees, and the safety performance of the battery can be guaranteed by applying alone, so the coating thickness can be controlled at about 1um-2um. According to the PVDF / aramid: 1. the price of each ton is 100,000 yuan / 200,000 yuan; 2. The coating thickness is 1.5um / 1.5um respectively, and the single flat cost of PVDF / aramid is 0.73 / 1.02 yuan / flat, respectively. According to the sensitivity test results, when the price of diaphragm grade PVDF rises to 200,000 yuan / ton, maintaining the current coating thickness, its cost will exceed that of aramid.
3.4 Taihe New Material: Aramid domestic replacement leader, double barrier to build a moat
Localization of aramid replaces the leader, and the double barrier builds an industrial moat. The global aramid industry has a market capacity of more than 120,000 tons, of which both meta-aramid and para-aramid can be used in lithium battery diaphragms. According to Taihe New Material, the localization of meta-aramid has been basically completed, and para-aramid is in progress. Taihe New Material is one of the world's three major aramid manufacturers, the first in China to achieve meta-aramid and para-aramid industrialization, the existing production capacity of 7000 tons and 4500 tons, the largest output and long-term in the domestic leading position. Aramid has a high barrier: 1. Technical barriers: long research and development cycle, high production process requirements, large investment amount; Market barriers: long certification cycle, long promotion cycle, long profit cycle. Taihe New Material achieved aramid pilot test in 2008, completed industrialization in 2011, and achieved profitability in 2017.
The main business structure is pure, and the profitability has improved significantly. Taihe New Material specializes in the research and development, production and sales of high-performance fibers such as spandex and aramid, and the leading products are Nüstar spandex, Tymeta meta-aramid, Teplon para-aramid and its upstream and downstream products; 1H21, the company's spandex/aramid accounted for 63%/36% respectively. In the first half of 2021, the company's aramid product revenue was 767 million yuan, yoy +82%, and the gross profit margin was 42.02%, year-on-year +7.14pct; the company's product demand was strong, production and sales increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and profit increased significantly year-on-year.
Break the international monopoly and increase the production capacity of aramid. Aramid industry has a very high production process and technical barriers, Taihe New Material in 2004 and 2011 respectively to achieve the industrialization of meta-aramid and para-aramid production, breaking the international monopoly, there is a total of 11500 tons / year of aramid production capacity, ranking third in the world. In October 2021, the company announced that it will continue to increase the construction of para-aramid and meta-aramid, and it is expected that in 2024, the company's para-aramid and meta-aramid production capacity will both exceed 20,000 tons, with a total total production capacity of more than 40,000 tons, from the current global aramid manufacturer capacity planning, Taihe New Material has surpassed The Japanese Teijin, and its long-term production capacity ranks second in the world.
3.5 Shuangxiang shares: ontology aggregation system high-end PMMA, production capacity expansion in the world leading
PMMA is expected to replace the application of PVDF in water-based coatings. PMMA, commonly known as plexiglass, is composed of MMA monomer polymerization, the world's mainstream PMMA production enterprises are using ontology method production technology, can be applied to automotive, electronic appliances, medicine, light guide plate and other high-end fields. Among them, the optical grade PMMA process technology is more difficult and the cost is higher, before the domestic production capacity is not much, with the PMMA localization process accelerated, and the head enterprises improved the manufacturing process to solve the problem of high internal resistance of PMMA coating film. According to the industry chain survey, the domestic head separator factory will be PMMA as a substitute for PVDF in the application of water-based coating, before coating PMMA led to battery internal resistance improvement and other issues in the base film link has been solved, downstream feedback is good.
High-end PMMA is still mainly imported, and domestic enterprises are actively expanding production. The market demand for high-end optical GRADE PMMA products is large, and the current market share and production capacity are mainly controlled by several international chemical giants, and the mainland still needs to import a large amount of imports every year (Shuangxiang Shares", "Annual Output of 300,000 Tons of Optical Grade PMMAMS New Material Investment Agreement"). According to the New Thought Industry Research Center, the enterprises that can achieve optical-grade PMMA mass production in the mainland at this stage are Shuangxiang Shares, Wanhua Chemical, etc., with a current scale of less than 100,000 tons/year, of which Vientiane Shares announced in March 21 that it will invest 1.8 billion yuan to build a 300,000-ton optical-grade PMMA/MS project.
The business is purely PMMA, and the operating income maintains high growth. Shuangxiang Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the optical grade PMMA industry in Mainland China. In 2019-1H21, the PMMA revenue of Shuangxiang Shares was 6.46/7.21/340 million yuan, a year-on-year change of -5%/12%/-3.97% respectively, and the fluctuation of revenue was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. In 2020, the company's net profit attributable to the mother was 40.8997 million yuan, +35.06% year-on-year, mainly due to the growth of operating income and net profit of optical grade PMMA industry chain products. PMMA accounts for about 50% of the company's total revenue, and the company's main business is pure, and it is expected to fully benefit from the performance flexibility brought about by PMMA growth.
Ontology aggregation system high-end PMMA, production capacity expansion leading the world. PMMA production technology mainly has suspension polymerization, solution polymerization and ontology polymerization three processes, currently only the ontology polymerization method can produce high-end PMMA products, only the domestic double elephant shares and Wanhua Chemical has the ontology method process, the total production capacity of 160,000 tons / year, of which the double elephant shares have announced the expansion of 300,000 tons / year PMMA / MS project, we expect that in 2023 the company's optical grade PMMA production capacity is expected to reach 380,000 tons / year, ranking the forefront of the world. PMMA produced by solution polymerization and cracking can only be applied to the low-end market, and there is currently a surplus of low-end products in China.
Fourth, the coating material supply chain: the industrial chain has shifted to China, helping local suppliers
4.1 The coating industry chain is transferred to China, and material merchants enjoy local track dividends
Diaphragm coating plants have covered mainstream coating materials & processes. At present, various coating film manufacturers have covered the mainstream coating materials, including Boumite, alumina, PVDF, etc., and some diaphragm factories also have PMMA self-made & coating capabilities. Although the coating film factory already has aramid coating technology, aramid materials have not yet been applied to batteries on a large scale. According to the feedback of the industrial chain, aramid coating involves the use of patents, and at present, only a few diaphragm factories in China have aramid coating patents, which is one of the reasons that limit its development. In the future, with the acceleration of the localization process of aramid materials, and the expiration of overseas DuPont, Teijin and other patents, the penetration rate of aramid in lithium battery coating is expected to continue to rise.
The diaphragm industry chain has shifted to China and gained local coating material suppliers. Judging from the purchase of diaphragms by battery factories in recent years, almost all domestic battery factories are equipped with local separators, and the coating film procurement of overseas battery factories in Japan, Such as Toray and Asahi Kasei, has been significantly reduced, and the overall diaphragm industry chain has shifted to China. In order to save transportation costs and the additional losses caused by the deformation and deterioration of coating materials during transportation, the industrial chain tends to purchase local coating materials, which is expected to increase continental coating material suppliers. At present, the suppliers of coating materials in Mainland China are as follows:
1) Boum stone: Yishitong, Chinalco Zhengzhou Research Institute is the main supplier of domestic Boumite, of which Yishitong in the Ningde era, Yiwei lithium energy, Guoxuan gaoke Bogmite share is expected to exceed 70%; other Bomer stone manufacturers in china include Jidun new materials, national porcelain materials, the current scale is small.
2) PVDF: Domestic diaphragm-level PVDF suppliers include Dongguangguang, Sanaifu, Funuolin, Sinochem Blue Sky, Putailai, etc., and the cathode PVDF suppliers are Funuolin, Dongyue Group, Sinochem Blue Sky, etc., and its Middle East Sunshine is a PVDF supplier of ningde era.
3) Aramid: domestic lithium battery coating aramid has not yet been large-scale volume, the current domestic aramid supplier for Taihe New Material, the company has set up aramid coating research group, and Enjie, Xingyuan and other joint promotion.
4.2 Bühmite supply chain: raw materials have been localized, and the proportion of diaphragm coating applications is high
Raw materials are localized, and costs are improving year by year. The upstream of boumite is aluminum hydroxide, the content accounts for >99%, the excipient is pure water (deionized water, soft water), and the raw material of boumite is ordinary chemicals, which have been completely domesticated. From 2018 to 2020, the price of aluminum hydroxide showed a slight downward trend, until the middle of 2021, the price began to climb to around 2000 yuan / ton, mainly due to the continuous rise in upstream aluminum prices. As far as the specific company is concerned, the purchase price of aluminum hydroxide granules (aluminum hydroxide processed products) in 2018-2020 is 3917/3946/3436 yuan / ton, respectively, and the purchase unit price in 2019 is slightly increased mainly due to the supplier's improvement of product performance pricing, and the suppliers of aluminum hydroxide granules of Yishitong are Chinalco New Materials and Luoyang Super New Materials.
The downstream application of Boumite is mainly lithium battery separator and pole plate coating. The downstream of Boumite is mainly used in power lithium battery separator and pole plate coating, and the downstream application is mainly for new energy vehicles. According to our calculations, in 2021, the downstream demand for lithium battery separator coating / positive electrode edge coating / negative electrode edge coating / negative electrode edge coating is 93.5%/ 6.4% / 0.1% respectively, and boumite currently accounts for the largest proportion of lithium battery separator coating applications. According to our estimates, in 2022/2023/2024/2025, the demand for cathode edge coating materials is 1.76/3.14/5.12/859 million tons, and the penetration rate of boumite in this field is 100%. We expect that the downstream demand for lithium battery separator coating/ positive electrode edge coating / negative electrode edge coating will change to 87.6%/9.9%/2.5% in 2025, and the proportion of pole edge coating demand will increase.
Fifth, the future trend of discussion: diaphragm needs to take into account both safety and thinness, aramid has long-term growth potential
5.1 Nano Boomite conforms to the development of batteries, and aramid coating may become mainstream in the future
Enhancing the safety performance of the diaphragm while being thin and light is the development direction of the future diaphragm. We believe that in the future, the diaphragm will be more lightweight and thin, and the thermal stability and magnetic foreign body control safety can be improved:
1) Diaphragm lightness: the thinner the thickness of the diaphragm, the smaller the resistance inside the battery, which can leave more space for the positive and negative electrode materials, and can reduce the probability of component misalignment during processing. At the same time, thinner diaphragms are also more suitable for thinner, smaller, high-end digital products. Separator Lightweight composite lithium battery energy density improvement, high-end digital battery application more and more widely used in the industry development direction, and at the current level of technology, reducing the thickness of the separator is one of the most effective ways to improve the energy density of lithium batteries.
2) Improved thermal stability: Double-sided coating can effectively enhance the puncture resistance of lithium battery separators, and improve the heat resistance of lithium battery separators, so that the heat resistance temperature of the coating is increased from 130 degrees to 150 degrees, which effectively improves the safety of the separator.
3) Magnetic foreign body content reduction: Magnetic foreign body content can directly affect the safety of the battery, magnetic foreign body control has become the main technical barrier in the industry, is the important research direction for further improvement of boumite quality.
The research and development direction of the next generation of diaphragm materials of Yishitong is nano-Boomite. According to the announcement of One Stone, the company's next generation of Boomite products are positioned in the nanoscale size, such products can further reduce the existing coating thickness of 2-3 m to 1 m and below, can be used for ultra-thin diaphragm coating, the material size is significantly smaller than the current Boumite material, and can maintain the tensile strength and puncture resistance of the diaphragm while reducing the coating thickness.
Aramid is both safe and thin, and may become mainstream in the future. Aramid consistency is good and no particles, the coating is very thin between 1μm-2μm, is currently the only organic material that can be coated separately without inorganic materials to maintain high performance, its lightness is currently not available in other materials, we think it is the most excellent diaphragm coating material at present. However, according to our calculations, the current aramid coating single flat cost of about 1.02 yuan / flat, corresponding to a single GWh cost of about 10.49 million yuan, Boelite only 0.37 yuan / flat, corresponding to a single GWh cost of about 2.96 million yuan, the current performance of boumite has been enough to meet the basic requirements of lithium battery separator, aramid does not have a cost performance at this price, and is currently only assembled on a small number of high-end batteries that pursue high energy density. We judge that if the localization process of aramid accelerates in the future, the price of aramid will drop to less than 50,000 yuan / ton, and the coating thickness will be within 1μm, or it will become the mainstream coating material.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].