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CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Zhitong Finance APP was informed that CICC released a research report saying that aluminum-plastic film is still not a localization link in lithium battery materials, the industry is accelerating domestic substitution, and the penetration rate of soft pack batteries is expected to increase, and the aluminum-plastic film market space CAGR will reach 37% in 2021-2025, and domestic aluminum-plastic film manufacturers will usher in important development opportunities.

THE MAIN VIEWS OF CICC are as follows:

summary

Technical barriers are high, and overseas manufacturers occupy the main market share. Aluminum-plastic film is the encapsulation material of the soft-packed lithium battery cell, which plays a role in protecting the material in the cell, and the cost accounts for about 5%. The core barrier of aluminum-plastic film lies in the know-how of the production process, which has higher requirements for the depth of hedging, electrolyte resistance and barrier performance. Due to the high technical barriers, Japanese and Korean manufacturers will occupy more than 70% of the global aluminum-plastic film market share in 2020, and the sales of domestic manufacturers are generally concentrated in the field of low-end consumer electronics, and the power field still needs to be broken.

The soft pack in the 3C field has a high penetration rate, and the penetration rate of the domestic power field is increased by the long and short blade batteries. We expect that the global demand for aluminum-plastic film will be about 200 million square meters in 2021, and the demand for aluminum-plastic film will increase to 870 million square meters by 2025, with a market space of more than 15 billion yuan, and a CAGR of 36.5% in 2021-2025:

Consumer electronics: Thanks to the light weight and high energy density of soft pack batteries, soft pack batteries account for more than 90% of digital consumer electronics, and we expect the share of soft packs to remain stable in the future.

Power battery: Overseas LG and SKI are mainly based on soft package routes, and many models in Europe have driven the market share of soft packages. Domestic leading enterprises such as Ningde Times and AVIC Lithium Battery are mainly square routes, and the share of soft packages in 2020 is less than 10%. We believe that through the structural innovation of long and short blade batteries, and the use of soft pack and lamination technology has a greater bulk energy density advantage, it is expected that long and short blades will usher in rapid development, driving the domestic soft pack share increase.

The progress of domestic technology breaks through the supply threshold and gradually realizes domestic substitution by relying on cost advantages. We believe that the development period of aluminum-plastic film is similar to the diaphragm industry in 2015, at the technical level, domestic products have gradually approached overseas products, leading companies have begun to gradually verify and cut into the power customer supply chain, through the gradual localization of raw materials and equipment, domestic aluminum-plastic film companies will rely on cost advantages from the low-end field to high-end 3C and power field penetration, and finally achieve domestic substitution.

Risk: The demand for soft pack batteries is less than expected, and the domestic replacement progress of aluminum-plastic film is less than expected.

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The technical barriers are high, and the lithium battery packaging materials that have not yet been domestically produced

Soft pack battery encapsulation material, the cost of about 5%. Aluminum-plastic film is the packaging material of the soft-packed lithium battery cell, which plays a role in protecting the material in the cell, and currently accounts for about 5% of the cost in the raw materials of the soft-packed lithium battery.

Multi-hierarchy, high material performance requirements. The main components of aluminum-plastic film are nylon layer, aluminum foil and cast polypropylene layer (CPP), each layer is connected by adhesive, and the performance requirements of aluminum-plastic film include high depth performance, electrolyte resistance and strong acid corrosion, high barrier, high heat sealing, high ductility and mechanical strength.

Figure 1: Soft pack battery structure

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Home of Automotive Engineers, CICC Research Department

Figure 2: Aluminum-plastic film accounts for about 5% of the raw material cost of soft pack batteries

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: GGII, CIAPS, CICC Research Department

Figure 3: Aluminum-plastic film structure and performance requirements

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Group Standard for Aluminum-Plastic Composite Film for Lithium-ion Batteries, CNKI, Battery Materials, RESEARCH Department of CICC

From the perspective of aluminum-plastic film production costs, raw material costs account for about 70%, of which aluminum foil accounts for more than 50% and CPP accounts for about 25%; At the same time, depreciation and other manufacturing expenses account for 25% of the total production cost, and there is a large space for process improvement and efficiency improvement.

Chart 4: Aluminum-plastic film production cost split in 2020

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Mingguan New Material Prospectus, GGII, CICC Research Department

According to the production process and material, aluminum-plastic film is divided into dry and thermal methods:

Dry method: the aluminum foil and CPP are directly pressed together with a binder, and the deep forming performance is good (that is, the aluminum-plastic film is used for the pit forming process before packaging), but the adhesive has poor electrolyte resistance, affecting the service life of the battery.

Thermal method: the aluminum foil and CPP are bonded with MPP, and the heat pressure is combined after slow heating and pressure, which can improve the adhesion between the aluminum foil and the CPP layer, and improve the anti-electrolyte swelling and shedding ability of the inner surface layer, but the depth performance is poor and the aesthetics are weak.

Figure 5: Comparison of aluminum-plastic film production processes

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Figure 6: Dry production process

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Mingguan New Materials Company Announcement, CICC Research Department

The core barrier of aluminum-plastic film lies in the know-how of the production process, and there is a large gap between raw materials and equipment at home and abroad, which is ultimately reflected in the differences in the depth of the product end, electrolyte resistance, barrier performance, etc.

Production process: aluminum-plastic film production process barriers are high, and there are strong know-how in all links, such as: 1) the water treatment process of aluminum foil, which is easy to produce "hydrogen embrittlement", resulting in low bending resistance and poor depth depth. 2) When coating, it is necessary to maintain product consistency, reliability, depth strength, etc.

Raw materials: There are certain differences in elongation and fracture rate of aluminum foil at home and abroad, and there is also a large gap between CPP and binder formulation, which affects the adhesion and heat sealing performance of the product.

Equipment: Aluminum-plastic film equipment is mostly general-purpose equipment, but such as aluminum foil coating machine and other links, there is a certain gap in width, speed and accuracy of domestic and foreign equipment, domestic single-line production capacity is less than 15 million square meters, import lines can reach 30 million square meters +.

Due to the high technical barriers, in 2020, Japanese and South Korean manufacturers will occupy more than 70% of the global aluminum-plastic film market share, the share of domestic manufacturers is less than 30%, and due to the higher safety requirements in the power field and a longer verification cycle, the current domestic manufacturers' sales are generally concentrated in the field of low-end consumer electronics, and the power field still needs to be domestically broken.

Chart 7: Global market share of aluminum-plastic film in 2020

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: EVTank, CICC Research Department

The gap between the price of diaphragms at home and abroad is between 20% and 50%, and the gross profit margin of most domestic manufacturers is about 20-25%, and only Zijiang New Materials obtains a net profit margin of nearly 20% by realizing most of the localization of raw materials and equipment.

Chart 8: Aluminum-plastic film price spread at home and abroad 20%-50%

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Xinzhu Lithium Battery, RESEARCH Department of CICC

Figure 9: The gross profit margin of enterprises is mostly maintained at 20%-25%, and the profitability of Zijiang enterprises is leading

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Company Announcement, Wonder Information, CICC Research Department

The demand for soft packages has increased, and the market space of aluminum-plastic film will exceed 15 billion yuan in 2025

Lithium batteries can be divided into square, cylindrical and soft pack batteries according to the package shape. The three types of batteries have their own advantages and disadvantages, and the soft pack battery has certain advantages in safety, energy density and cycle life:

High safety: when the battery is thermally out of control, the soft pack battery flatulence achieves heat dissipation, which is less likely to explode than the hard shell of the square cylinder.

High energy density: The packaging material aluminum-plastic film used in the soft pack battery is lighter in weight, and the single cell of the soft pack power battery is about 10%-15% higher than the square power battery cell.

High cycle life and magnification performance: The small internal resistance of the soft pack battery can reduce the battery self-consumption and improve the cycle life and magnification performance.

Flexible shape design: The battery shape can be flexibly designed according to the needs to meet the higher requirements of space.

Figure 10: Cylindrical, square, and soft pack battery comparison

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Juda Lithium Battery, Starting Point Lithium Battery, CICC Research Department

Consumer electronics: The share of soft packages exceeds 50%, and it is expected to remain stable

Soft pack batteries dominate small digital products, while power tools and two-wheelers are still dominated by cylinders. From the overall shipment of consumer electronics, soft pack battery shipments accounted for about 55%. According to the application scenarios, 1) small digital products such as mobile phone notebooks have higher requirements for thinness and lightness, and soft pack batteries have the advantages of light weight, high energy density, flexible shape design, etc., which can better adapt to the demand for digital products, and the current share accounts for more than 90%. 2) In the field of power tools and electric two-wheelers, cylindrical batteries still dominate. Soft pack batteries benefit from their unique advantages of high energy density, and we expect the share of soft pack batteries in consumer electronics to remain stable in the future.

Chart 11: Soft pack battery penetration rate exceeds 50% in consumer electronics

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: B3, CICC Research Department

Chart 12: Consumer Electronics Shipments Split by Application in 2021

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Figure 13: Soft pack batteries occupy a major position in digital products such as mobile phones and notebook computers

Power battery: overseas soft packages are the mainstay, and the domestic share is expected to increase rapidly

Globally, in the installed capacity of power batteries in 2020, the market share of square, soft pack and cylindrical is about 49%, 28% and 23% respectively. However, the overall flexible packaging machine is mainly overseas, and the penetration rate of domestic soft packaging is less than 10%.

Chart 14: The proportion of soft pack batteries in global power battery installed capacity increased to 28% in 2020

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: SNE, CICC Research Department

The increase in the proportion of overseas LG and SKI installed capacity has led to the growth of the share of soft pack batteries. Among overseas power battery manufacturers, LG Chemical mainly uses soft pack batteries, SKI only has soft pack batteries, and Panasonic and Samsung SDI mainly lay out cylindrical and square batteries. LG soft pack batteries support Volkswagen, Audi, Volvo and many other European car manufacturers, and the proportion of global installed capacity increased from 7% in 2018 to 23% in 2020, driving the overseas penetration rate of soft packs. Fifteen of the top 20 models sold in Europe in 2020 are equipped with soft pack batteries, mainly LG Chemical, SKI and AESC.

Looking to the future, we expect that the soft pack battery in overseas power batteries will still maintain its main position. LG Chem plans to increase the total production capacity to 450 GWh by 2025, of which the soft package capacity reaches 310 GWh, the soft package accounts for more than 70%, ski production capacity will be increased from the current 40 GWh to 220 GWh in 2025, LG Chem and SKI soft pack production capacity will continue to increase, and Daimler, Ford, GM, Renault and other mainstream Manufacturers in Europe and the United States prefer the soft package route, and it is expected that the soft package will maintain its main position in overseas markets.

Figure 15: LG Chem and SKI, which are mainly soft pack batteries, increase the proportion of installed capacity

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Marklines, SNE, CICC Research Department

Chart 16: 15 of the top 20 models sold in Europe in 2020 are equipped with soft pack batteries

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: EVSales, CICC Research

In the domestic market, soft packs account for only 6% of the installed power batteries in 2020, and square batteries dominate. The domestic lithium battery leader Ningde era is mainly based on square routes, and second-line battery factories such as AVIC lithium batteries and Guoxuan Hi-Tech are also square/cylindrical routes, while fu neng technology, Jiewei Power and other enterprises focusing on soft package routes have relatively small production capacity, and the domestic market soft package share is less than 10%.

From the perspective of R & D layout, most of the leading lithium battery companies have a layout soft package technology route. CATL (300750.SZ) will start production a small number of soft package production lines in 2018, providing soft package solutions for overseas customers such as Nissan; Ewell Lithium Energy (300014.SZ) currently has a soft package capacity of 10GWh, accounting for about 25% of the total production capacity; Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074.SZ) released a 210Wh/Kg lithium iron phosphate soft pack battery cell in early 2021.

Chart 17: In 2020, in China's power battery installed capacity, soft packs account for only 6%

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: CIAPS, CICC Research

Chart 18: China's soft pack battery installed capacity share in 2020

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Starting Point Research Institute, CICC Research Department

Figure 19: Domestic leading battery companies are mainly square routes

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Company Announcements, True Lithium Research, CICC Research Department

We believe that through the structural innovation of long and short blade batteries, and the use of soft pack and lamination technology can give full play to the advantages of volume energy density, long and short blades will usher in rapid development driven by downstream battery factories, and drive the demand for soft pack aluminum plastic film:

Hive Energy: In October 2021, Hive Energy announced that the first generation of lithium iron phosphate short-knife batteries will be rolled off the production line, and announced at the second battery day conference of The Hive in December that it will promote the short-knifeization of batteries in all fields of various application scenarios and chemical systems. In December 2021, the company signed a procurement contract with Selen New Materials to purchase aluminum-plastic films for soft packaging from Selen New Materials for 20 million square meters from 2022-2023.

Figure 20: "Blade" battery

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: CICC Research Department

Figure 21: Honeycomb Energy Short Knife Battery Pack Structure

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Hive Energy, CICC Research Department

It is estimated that the aluminum-plastic film market space will be 4.4 billion yuan in 2021, the market space will exceed 15 billion yuan in 2025, and the CAGR will reach 36.5% in 2021-2025.

Price: At present, many aluminum-plastic film manufacturers in the mainland have accelerated the localization of aluminum-plastic film raw materials/equipment and accelerated the construction of production capacity, with the technological progress of domestic manufacturers, we expect that the localization of aluminum-plastic film will continue to advance, and the price of aluminum-plastic film will gradually decline.

Demand: domestic power market, blade battery volume, honeycomb energy to implement short knife in all fields will drive The rapid increase in China's soft package market share; In overseas markets, the share of soft packages is expected to remain stable under the high growth of LG Chem and SKI production and sales and the tendency of downstream customers to choose shape routes; The consumption and energy storage sectors are expected to maintain a stable share of soft packages. We expect that the global demand for aluminum-plastic film will be about 200 million square meters in 2021, and the demand for aluminum-plastic film will increase to 870 million square meters by 2025.

Figure 22: Soft pack battery market space measurement

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Note: The packaging method of "soft package + aluminum shell" here is also divided into soft package types; Source: Marklines, SNE, Xinzhu Lithium Battery, B3, CICC Research Department

Forward solid-state batteries drive the share of soft packs

Solid-state battery is a kind of secondary battery that replaces the separator + liquid electrolyte structure in traditional liquid batteries by solid electrolyte, and pursues the application of lithium metal anode to improve energy density while ensuring safety. We believe that solid-state batteries will use soft packs as the main packaging method to promote the demand for long-term aluminum-plastic film.

Oxide and sulfide solid-state batteries have greater development potential. At present, solid-state batteries are mainly divided into polymers, oxides and sulfides according to the chemical composition of electrolytes, of which polymer solid-state batteries have certain compatibility with the current batteries in the production equipment, but they are weaker than oxide and sulfide batteries in various indicators such as conductivity and mechanical strength, and we expect that long-term inorganic solid-state batteries have greater development potential.

Inorganic solid-state batteries are more suitable for soft package packaging, which is also the mainstream choice of enterprises at present. Due to the weak flexibility of oxide and sulfide electrolytes, it is necessary to use lamination method, and the cylindrical winding type is not feasible. Compared with square aluminum shell batteries, soft pack batteries have greater advantages in energy density. From the current R & D layout of various enterprises, each enterprise has chosen soft packages as a form of packaging. We expect that with the development of solid-state batteries in the long run, the share of soft pack batteries is expected to further increase.

Figure 23: Solid-state batteries currently use the soft pack route

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Company Announcement, CICC Research Department

Technological progress material localization, aluminum-plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

We believe that the current development period of the aluminum-plastic film industry is similar to the diaphragm industry around 2015, the technical level and production process of mainland aluminum-plastic film manufacturers continue to improve, and gradually obtain verification and recognition from downstream customers, and gradually achieve domestic substitution by virtue of the cost advantage of localization of raw materials and equipment.

Domestic substitution of double diaphragm: After breaking through the basic technical threshold, mainland diaphragm enterprises have achieved domestic substitution by virtue of cost advantages and continuous technological progress, and eventually to global supply.

Before 2012: Most of the mainland diaphragm manufacturers were in the process of research and development and production line construction, and the market was monopolized by Japanese and Korean manufacturers.

2013-2015: Mainland manufacturers broke through the threshold of basic manufacturing and achieved a small number of shipments from domestic customers, but the overall products were mainly low-end products, and the domestic supply capacity was limited.

2016-2018: The technology of domestic diaphragm factories continued to improve, the domestic share increased, and leading enterprises successively launched the certification process for overseas customers such as LG, Samsung, and Panasonic.

After 2019: The technical level of leading enterprises has approached overseas, and they have successively entered the supply chain of overseas customers and gone global for global supply.

Figure 24: Review of the development of wet diaphragms in China

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: GGII, Marklines, China Battery Industry Association, CICC Research Department

We believe that the development stage of aluminum-plastic film in mainland China is similar to the diaphragm industry in 2015, with the progress of domestic technology, domestic manufacturers have gradually penetrated from the low-end field to the high-end and power fields.

From the technical level, the comprehensive performance of aluminum-plastic film of mainland manufacturers is gradually approaching overseas products. Taking Mingguan new aluminum plastic film products as an example, the company independently laid out the dry heat method aluminum plastic film production technology, the use of dry coating equipment to achieve the process technology of thermal material preparation, in the depth strength, electrolyte resistance and other aspects of the performance are close to or even surpass overseas products.

From the perspective of customer structure, mainland manufacturers have gradually penetrated into the field of high-end consumption and power. Due to the high requirements of product performance and quality of power aluminum-plastic film, it is necessary to go through multiple rounds of sample delivery - small batch use and other verification and testing links, and the verification cycle is usually more than one year. In the early days, mainland aluminum-plastic film manufacturers were mainly low-end consumer electronics customers. Selen Technology acquired the aluminum-plastic film business of Japan's T&T, the world's third-largest aluminum-plastic film manufacturer, in 2016, and realized the supply of power customers such as Fu Neng, Jiewei, LG, SKI, AESC and so on; Purple will new materials currently supply polyfluoride, and in the verification of Fu Neng, Guoxuan, LG, SKI and other customers; Mingguan New Materials will achieve small-batch supply of power customers such as Nandu Power Supply, Fu Neng Technology, and Micro-Hong Power in 2021, and domestic leading manufacturers have begun to verify and cut into power customers.

Figure 25: The performance of domestic aluminum-plastic film is gradually approaching or even surpassing overseas products

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Mingguan New Material Prospectus, CICC Research Department

Figure 26: Domestic aluminum-plastic film manufacturers are gradually verifying that they have entered high-end consumer and power customers

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Company Announcements, CICC Research Department

Continue to promote the localization of raw materials and equipment, and expand market share by virtue of cost advantages. In the early stage of the aluminum-plastic film industry, most mainland manufacturers used imported aluminum foil, CPP, binders and other raw materials and imported equipment, and the cost was not advantageous compared with overseas products. At present, through joint research and development with upstream raw material enterprises, mainland aluminum-plastic film enterprises have gradually introduced domestic two supplies and three supplies to achieve partial domestic substitution of raw materials such as aluminum foil, CPP and binder, and equipment terminals such as Zijiang New Materials and Mingguan New Materials have gradually tried to use domestic equipment. In the future, with the localization of raw materials and equipment, the cost of domestic aluminum-plastic film still has room for further decline, and domestic manufacturers will gradually achieve domestic substitution by virtue of cost advantages after breaking through the threshold of technology and supply.

Mainland manufacturers have accelerated the construction of production capacity, and industrialization has been rapidly promoted. Since 2020, mainland manufacturers have continued to accelerate the construction of aluminum-plastic film production capacity: in May 2021, Selen Technology will increase production and expand two production lines to supply 72 million square meters of production capacity; In June 2021, Enjie co., Ltd. announced the expansion of 8 production lines, with an annual output of 270 million square meters of aluminum-plastic film; Huazheng New Material put into operation at the beginning of 2022, the total production capacity increased to 40 million square meters +, the expansion of aluminum-plastic film industrialization is advancing rapidly, and we expect that after 2023, aluminum-plastic film can achieve a higher level of domestic substitution.

Figure 27: Localization of Mainland Manufacturers

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Figure 28: Mainland manufacturers accelerate the construction of aluminum-plastic film production capacity

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Related businesses

Zijiang Enterprise (600210.SH)

Packaging materials started, research and development of mass production of aluminum-plastic film has a long history. Zijiang enterprise was established in 1989, the main PET bottle, PE cast film, BOPET film, CPP film, etc., relying on its film production and manufacturing experience, Zijiang enterprise in 2004 set up an aluminum-plastic film R & D team, in 2011 Zijiang enterprises set up a subsidiary focusing on the development and production of aluminum-plastic film Zijiang new materials, and to achieve mass production and sales, in 2017 developed the fourth generation of aluminum-plastic film, has been cut polyfluoride multi-power customers and ATL, lithium, Lishen and other consumer customers.

Raw materials and equipment to achieve better localization, profitability is outstanding. In terms of aluminum-plastic film equipment, in addition to high-precision equipment such as coating machines, most of Zijiang new materials are domestic equipment. In terms of raw materials, the company independently developed and laid out CPP, binders, and aluminum foils to achieve certain localization. The high level of localization of equipment and raw materials makes the net profit margin of the company's aluminum-plastic film business as high as nearly 20%, and the net profit of a single flat is about 3 yuan.

Chart 29: 1-3Q2021 Zijiang enterprise aluminum plastic film revenue accounted for 3.4%

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Zijiang Enterprise Company Announcement, CICC Research Department

Figure 30: Zijiang enterprise aluminum plastic film business

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Selen New Material

Mainly engaged in new materials and precision manufacturing business, acquired T$T aluminum plastic film business in Japan. Selen New Material's main business covers electronic functions and photoelectric display materials, purification engineering, intelligent molding, etc. In 2016, the company acquired the aluminum-plastic film business of Japan's T&T, the world's third largest aluminum-plastic film manufacturer, for 550 million yuan, the company's current power customers include LG, SKI, AESC, Fu Neng Technology, Jiewei Power, Weihong Power, etc. According to CIAPS statistics, Selen New Material's domestic power-based aluminum-plastic film market share in 2020 reached 87%, and it is the largest supplier of power-based aluminum-plastic film in China.

Rapid expansion of production capacity and better profitability. At present, the company's production capacity is about 100 million square meters, and in May 2021, the company will increase and expand two production lines with a total of 72 million square meters. In terms of profitability, in 2021H, the gross profit margin of the company's aluminum-plastic film business was about 25%, and the net profit of the new composite of the aluminum-plastic film production subsidiary was 43.15 million yuan.

Chart 31: 1H21 Selen new material aluminum plastic film revenue accounted for 41.3%

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Source: Selen New Material Company Announcement, CICC Research Department

Figure 32: Selen new material aluminum plastic film business

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Mingguan New Materials (688560.SH)

The main solar cell backplane, while laying out new materials such as aluminum-plastic film and POE adhesive film, cut into some domestic power customers. The company independently developed and laid out aluminum-plastic film, developed dry-heat composite preparation technology, that is, the process technology of thermal material preparation using dry coating equipment to achieve thermal material preparation, and achieved mass production. In 2021, the company will realize the small batch supply of power customers such as Nandu Power, Fu Neng Technology, and Weihong Power, and actively expand high-end digital customers such as ATL, Guanyu, Liwei, and Yiwei Lithium Energy.

Chart 33: 1H21 Mingguan new material aluminum plastic film revenue accounted for 4.1%

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Figure 34: Mingguan new material aluminum-plastic film business

CICC: High demand for soft packages Lithium battery aluminum plastic film domestic substitution is carried out

Enjie Shares (002812.SZ)

Global diaphragm faucet, derived layout aluminum-plastic film. Enjie Co., Ltd. is the world's leading wet diaphragm company, with a global market share of more than 35% in 2021, and the company has BOPP membrane, aseptic packaging, special paper and other businesses. Relying on the rich experience accumulated in film products, the company independently developed and laid out aluminum-plastic film products, and in June 2021, the company announced the expansion of aluminum-plastic film production by 270 million square meters, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 400 million square meters by 2024. At present, the company introduces imported production lines and uses imported raw materials, while the company tries to gradually use domestic materials to replace and reduce costs.

Short-term diaphragm supply and demand is tight, the company enjoys the volume and price rise. At present, the production capacity of wet diaphragms is constrained by equipment capacity and long expansion cycle, and we expect the industry to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in 2022-2023. The company locked in the production capacity of Nippon Steel, and the production capacity continued to expand, with a single monthly output of nearly 400 million square meters in February.

Foster (603806.SH)

Global rubber film leader, layout of new material industries such as aluminum-plastic film. Foster is the world's leading photovoltaic film enterprises, the market share has remained above 50% for a long time, and the leading position is stable. In recent years, the company has vigorously developed the new material industry, and developed new material products such as photosensitive dry film and aluminum-plastic film. In 2021, in order to accelerate the mass production of aluminum-plastic film, the company will expand the production of aluminum-plastic film by 20 million square meters, and it is expected to increase the mass production capacity of 30 million square meters in the later stage. At present, the company mainly does customer development for aluminum-plastic film, and plans to expand the future customer group from consumer batteries to power batteries and energy storage fields.

The production capacity of adhesive film continues to expand, and the cost advantage and high demand increase ensure profitability. The company's current film expansion progress is to increase the production capacity of 300-400 million square meters per year, and the scale advantage is further highlighted. In 2022, the production capacity of EVA particles of adhesive film raw materials will be released, and the company's raw material costs are expected to enter the downward channel. On the demand side, we believe that with the decline in silicon prices this year, the pressure on component costs has improved, and the recovery of manufacturer operating rates has stimulated the high demand for adhesive films.

This article is compiled from the WeChat public account "CICC Dianjing", authors: Zeng Tao, Ji Feng, Wang Yingdong, Zhitong Finance Editor: Xie Qinghai.

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