On March 31, Fa Ge announced that from April 1, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel fuel will be increased by 110 yuan per ton. So far, this year's domestic oil prices have completed seven consecutive rises, No. 92 gasoline has crossed the threshold of 8 yuan, and "95 full" has become the latest declaration of local tycoons.
In fact, oil prices have already entered an upward channel last year. The price of gasoline rose by 1485 yuan / ton for the whole year, and the price of diesel rose by 1430 yuan / ton. One result of the rise in oil prices is that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 14.8% in 2021, which is significantly higher than the 5.8% in 2020.
The China Passenger Transport Association pointed out that the latest subsidy policy does not lock in the upper limit of the subsidy scale of 2 million vehicles, and the sales of new energy passenger cars are likely to reach 5.5 million in 2022, when the penetration rate will reach about 25%.
First, the supporting equipment is perfect and the reserves are sufficient, and the soft package faucet is waiting to take off?
The three armies did not move the grain and grass first.
Sales of new energy vehicles are rising, and lithium battery supply must keep up. In addition to the thunderous Ningde era (300750) and BYD (002594), China also has an unusual power battery manufacturer - 688567.
The reason why it is not the usual way, because Fu Neng is the only company in the top ten power battery manufacturers in China that still adheres to the three-yuan soft package route, although it only ranks ninth...
China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance was released
Compared with the general cylindrical battery and square battery, the cathode material of the soft pack battery is actually not special, and ternary lithium, lithium iron phosphate and even lithium manganate and lithium cobalt oxide can be. The main difference is that cylindrical batteries and square batteries use metal shells, while soft pack batteries are generally coated with aluminum-plastic film. The biggest advantage of this structure is the high energy density. According to the data of the Institute of High Industry Industry (GGII), the average cell energy density of the ternary soft-pack power battery mass-produced in the current power battery industry has reached 240-250Wh/kg, but the energy density of the ternary square power battery with the same material system is 210-230Wh/kg. The energy density of the single cell of the ternary soft pack power battery is 10%-15% higher than that of the ternary square power battery on average. In recent years, the market share of soft pack batteries in overseas markets has been rising, and 15 of the 20 best-selling new energy passenger cars in Europe in 2020 use soft pack batteries. In China, although there are such "traffic bearers" as Weilai and Xiaopeng who have begun to use soft pack batteries, the market share of soft pack batteries is still declining.
Excerpt from "Fu Neng Technology Specification"
Soft pack batteries at home and abroad ice and fire double day situation, there are groups of low efficiency (soft pack groups need to add additional brackets, occupy space), the process is relatively complex, the cost is higher than square and cylindrical reasons, but the fundamental reason is that the domestic has not formed a complete supply chain. In particular, the key material aluminum-plastic film, the production capacity has always been in the hands of Japanese and Korean companies. However, today is different from the past, a number of domestic enterprises represented by Putailai (603659) have been able to come up with quite capable aluminum-plastic film products, technically preparing for the soft pack battery to counterattack the domestic market.
And Fu Neng has also made technical reserves. At present, the company has been able to mass-produce 285Wh/kg ternary soft pack batteries, with a cycle life of more than 2,000 times, 30 minutes can be fully charged with more than 80%, and can meet the requirements of minus 20 degrees Celsius charging. 330Wh/Kg products have also been developed and validated, and the energy density and low temperature performance have great advantages over the current mainstream cylindrical and square batteries.
Excerpt from "Fu Neng Technology 2021 Semi-annual Report"
330Wh/kg is not the ultimate goal of Fu Neng, and the company claimed in last year's semi-annual report that it plans to further increase the energy density to 350Wh/kg within a few years.
Second, the fundraising and expansion of production was inquired, and there was a problem with the production capacity process
Since the industrial chain is basically perfected, the technical reserves are also in place. The next step, of course, is to expand the armaments war. At present, Fu Neng has submitted an application to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which plans to increase by 4.52 billion yuan. The project is to build a 12GWh battery production capacity in Wuhu, Anhui Province, which is equivalent to nearly 5 times the company's installed capacity of 2.45GWh in 2021.
Excerpt from "Fu Neng Technology Fundraising Prospectus"
However, as of the end of 2021, The total assets of Funeng are only 20.92 billion. This project will invest 5.856 billion yuan, 4.52 billion self-increase, the hand is indeed a little too big. Therefore, the regulator also issued an "inquiry letter". The general meaning is that Xiaofu's existing production capacity plus the production capacity under construction plus the total capacity of this fundraising can form a total of 41GWh production capacity. According to your 2021 sales of 3.47GWh and 14.81GWh of on-hand orders, is there some excess capacity? And you predict that in 2022, the demand for soft pack batteries will jump from the current 3.47GWh to 24.68GWh, and then jump to 65.77GWh in 2024. You want to cooperate with Geely to invest in the "Yijiatong" smart cockpit product, the major shareholder of the project is Geely, and the customer acquisition is also through Geely's channels, is it a bit risky that you will invest money just by getting the intention order?
Fu Neng's reply is also concise, the main meaning is that these predictions are based on the research results of high-tech lithium batteries, I do not understand the specifics, but I think it is reliable! For the amount of funds raised, Fu Neng has not changed, it seems that the next heart is ready to fight.
The reason why the company is so eager to raise funds to expand production is also clearly placed in the "2021 Performance Forecast".
Excerpt from "Fu Neng Technology 2021 Performance Forecast"
The company's revenue increased by more than 2 times, and the deduction of non-loss also increased by 1.37 times, and the revenue and loss flew together. The company explained that the main reason is that the price of the company and the customer are relatively low, in order to retain customers to give preferential treatment, lithium prices soared in 2021, naturally the more they sold, the more they lost.
However, some time ago, Zhang Feng, senior vice president and secretary of the board of directors of Fu Neng, told the media that the price of Fu Neng's products will generally increase by about 25% from this year. Considering that the company's existing production capacity will gradually complete the climb this year, and the production capacity under construction will also be in place one after another, the possibility of turning around losses is not small, and raising funds to expand production is indeed the best strategy.
However, the problems that Funeng has to solve are not only capacity and price. In April last year, BAIC announced a recall of 31,900 pure electric vehicles, on the grounds that the power batteries of some vehicles have been frequently charged in a high-temperature environment for a long time, and the performance of the batteries will deteriorate, and even trigger the risk of fire; in July, Great Wall Motors also recalled 16,000 electric vehicles for the same reason, and the batteries of these vehicles are supplied by Fu Neng.
The production process of soft pack batteries is more complicated and can form a certain technical barrier, but it is not easy to say whether the current Fu Neng has this barrier.
III. Conclusion
Daimler, an important customer of Fu Neng, demanded a yield rate of 95%, while Fu Neng only achieved about 90% in the fourth quarter of last year, which is the fundamental reason why Fu Neng needs to "retain customers". In addition, according to the strategic cooperation agreement between Fu Neng and Geely, Fu Neng had expected to start construction of production capacity of no less than 20 GWh in 2021, but it is obviously not achieved now. Therefore, the current situation of Fu Neng is that technology and production capacity are lagging behind the demand, not to mention the internal and external difficulties, it is also a bit of a mess.
Moreover, the soft package route and the solid-state battery naturally match, and the entry of the Ningde era and BYD is inevitable. Therefore, Brother Orange feels that 2022 is likely to become a watershed in the fate of Fu Neng. But regardless of whether it can cross this ridge, the "soft package faucet" is unlikely to have always been Fu Neng.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.