Per reporter: Li Shuo Li Xing Per editor: Sun Lei
"We did not expect the rise in the raw materials (prices) of power batteries this year to be so strong, and the price was originally expected to rise, but the actual intensity is much stronger than we thought." During the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 People's Association (hereinafter referred to as the 100 People's Association) forum held recently, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, admitted in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the sharp increase in the cost of power batteries has brought a lot of impact to the enterprise.
The large fluctuations in upstream raw material prices are far more than just new energy vehicle companies. Since the second half of last year, the sharp rise in the price of core raw materials such as cobalt, lithium and nickel has made a number of downstream enterprises in the industrial chain bitter. At this year's 100-person forum, various corporate leaders also discussed the impact of raw material price increases and the way to break the situation.
In this regard, Lin Nianxiu, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the forum of the 100-person conference that the NDRC will strengthen the construction of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other resource security systems, continue to do a good job in ensuring supply and stable prices, and accelerate the construction of a diversified resource guarantee system with simultaneous development and procurement and mutual benefit between domestic and international countries.
Soaring raw material prices are a hot topic
At the time of the acceleration of the wave of electrification, the soaring price of raw materials upstream of power batteries has become a "roadblock" that hinders its rapid development. According to the reporter's understanding, many power battery companies have chosen to increase prices to digest the rising costs.
Zhang Feng, senior vice president and secretary of the board of directors of Fu Neng Technology, revealed to reporters that Fu Neng Technology has completed the first round of price negotiations for power batteries at the end of last year, and the price increase time node began on January 1 this year, with an increase of more than 25%. However, the price of raw materials has risen further recently, and Fu Neng Technology is also launching a second round of consultations with customers, hoping to reach an agreement with customers on cost sharing.
Liu Jincheng, chairman of Ewell Lithium Energy, introduced to reporters that in March this year, the price of Ewell Lithium Energy's main customers has basically been adjusted. "We did not take a quick price increase in the first quarter, but the market has developed to this day, raw materials should be stable at such a price point for a period of time, so we are also actively discussing prices with our main customers, and we have reached a consensus with major customers." Liu Jincheng said.
According to the reporter's understanding, in addition to the above two companies, a number of battery suppliers, including Ningde Times and BAK Battery, have completed price adjustments. Under the transmission of cost layers, new energy vehicle companies have expressed "pressure mountain".
Li Xiang, founder and CEO of Ideal Automobile, said: "The cost of lithium carbonate may be 30,000 to 50,000 yuan / ton, which should not be so expensive, which is a huge profit, but as far as oil is concerned, the price of oil is not according to the cost." ”
Image source: Courtesy of the official
Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC Aean, also suggested that he hoped that the competent authorities could introduce relevant policies to regulate the price of raw material resources upstream of electric vehicles and prevent upstream resources from being excessively monopolized. He also suggested that in the balance of power batteries and energy storage batteries, the supply of power batteries can be prioritized.
For the question of when raw material prices and supply can return to normal levels, many experts attending the meeting gave their own judgments. "Take lithium carbonate as an example, it is a typical ore production, the capacity release cycle is 3 to 5 years, the brine lithium extraction cycle is longer, from the supply and demand side, the demand amplification brought by panic inventory reserves is temporary, with the improvement of lithium carbonate supply capacity, it is expected that it is possible to restore the complete supply and demand balance after two or three years." Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said.
In Zhang Feng's view, with the easing of the epidemic in the second half of the year, the shortage of raw materials from the end of this year to the beginning of next year may change. "But large-scale price adjustments and rebalancing of supply and demand may have to wait until domestic technological breakthroughs or overseas mineral resources are developed, and next year may be a point in time." Zhang Feng said.
In fact, the relevant departments have noticed the impact of rising battery raw material prices on the new energy automobile industry. Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, made it clear at the forum that the current problem of sharp price increases in power battery raw materials requires great attention, serious study and solution, will moderately accelerate the progress of domestic resource development, resolutely crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding, speculation and speculation, and guide upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to strengthen collaboration, win-win development, and promote the return of key raw material prices to rationality.
The development of new energy vehicles has entered a new stage
As the best carrier of intelligent network function, the future development direction of new energy vehicles is also one of the hot topics in the industry.
At the forum of the 100-person conference, Miao Wei, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said that if new energy vehicles are compared to the first half and intelligent networked vehicles are compared to the second half, then China's automotive industry has achieved great results in the first half, but the decision is still in the second half. At present, intelligent networked vehicle technology has entered a critical period of landing. "We have the confidence and ability to continue to play the second half and finally achieve the goal of building an automobile power." Miao Wei said.
Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, also expressed a similar view, saying: "In the revolution of automobile intelligence, the mainland automobile industry has achieved a first-mover effect by changing lanes, but the window of opportunity will not be too long. Parallel to this automotive revolution is the new energy revolution and the first generation of mobile communications, the transportation revolution and smart cities. With the in-depth development of the automobile revolution, more and more high-tech companies have joined in, the scientific and technological content of new energy vehicles is getting higher and higher, and the service software is becoming more and more abundant, which is evolving into a mobile intelligent terminal that determines the experience of data and defines the car. ”
After the automobile enters the era of intelligence, networking and digitalization, it will not only become a powerful carrier for absorbing renewable energy, but also become a link connecting green energy, smart grid, future travel, and a new generation of mobile communications. "With the rapid increase in the number of electric vehicles, it will reach 80 million to 100 million in 2030. It is expected that after 2030, with the popularization and development of V2G, its capacity will exceed the electrochemical battery energy storage capacity of the power grid, and in the future power system, electric vehicles will share the important responsibility of stabilizing the power grid with energy storage power stations, and are expected to become the main body of distributed energy storage. Ouyang Minggao said.
At the same time, high-level automatic driving, as one of the important functions of intelligent networked vehicles, is also accelerating towards large-scale applications. Guo Shougang, deputy director of the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said: "The pilot demonstration is an indispensable link in the development of intelligent and connected vehicles, and while promoting the pilot work of double intelligence, we are also accelerating the road test demonstration of intelligent and connected vehicles. Up to now, the country has opened more than 5,000 kilometers of open test roads, more than 10 million kilometers of safety testing, and driven the transformation and upgrading of intelligent roads for more than 3,500 kilometers. ”
Miao Wei also believes that without V2X (Internet of Vehicles) and relying solely on bicycle intelligence, L2 level assisted driving may be achieved, but it is very difficult to achieve L3 and L4 level automatic driving, and the computing power and power consumption exceed the limit of the vehicle itself, so the coordinated development of the vehicle road is imperative.
"More than 300 million cars in the country, all relying on the cloud, the amount of data is too large to bear, so we must move a part of the computing power from the car to the road test, using edge computing and end-to-end communication to achieve vehicle-road collaboration." It will lay a solid step for the interconnection of future vehicle-road cloud maps. Only by accelerating the pilot project of integrating vehicles and roads and accelerating the intelligence of urban road infrastructure can we consolidate the 'lane change and overtaking' of China's automobile industry. Miao Wei said.
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