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What does it mean to speak with weight?
When Madman Musk declared, Tesla saw the potential of manganese-based cathodes in battery chemistry. First of all, whether it is true or false, related concept stocks should be strengthened, and even up and down, such as Red Star Development (600367) without saying a direct stop, Hong Kong stocks of Southern Manganese (01091) as an important supplier of global manganese products, the stock price rose by nearly 28.87%. That's the portion.
As Tesla's stock price soars, Tesla CEO Musk has also been sent to the throne of the world's richest man, so is Musk a liar or a pioneer?
Don't forget, in 2020, Musk publicly said that he would use lithium iron phosphate in electric vehicles, and from the practice of these years, the promise of that year is also becoming a reality. What about this time?
Musk related remarks
Friends familiar with electric vehicles know that the positive pole of lithium-ion batteries on the market is mainly the dispute between lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium, especially in the past two years, with the withdrawal of electric vehicles, the counterattack war of lithium iron phosphate has just begun. For the role of manganese metal in it, the public still knows less.
Although Musk did not disclose more information about the application of manganese in the field of batteries, this also gave investors more room for imagination. Will the already confusing battery dispute cause a terrifying wave again because of the horse maniac's words?
First, manganese elements, emerging
Expand the industrial chain of manganese, and you will find that manganese exists in a variety of forms in nature. After a series of processes, it is finally applied in steel, batteries, medical and other industries.
Although Musk emphasizes the role of manganese in power batteries, in fact, about 95% of the world's manganese is used in the steel metallurgical industry, and only a small part is used in electric vehicle batteries. Moreover, in the process of steel production, there is no element that can achieve the replacement of manganese (just needed).
Manganese industry chain
So where is such an important resource? According to statistics, the global manganese ore reserves in 2021 totaled more than 1.3 billion tons, which is almost enough for us to Chinese one ton per person (joking). From the distribution point of view, it is mainly distributed in South Africa, Brazil, Australia and other countries, and South Africa alone occupies 40% (520 million tons). And the continents? It really does not rank high in the global reserve rankings, with only about 54 million tons of reserves, and last year's production was about 1.3 million tons.
If the recovery of manganese and new discoveries are not taken into account, China's manganese resource reserves are only enough for domestic use for less than 42 years!
Top 10 players in domestic electrolytic manganese production (Baichuan Yingfu)
As an important intermediate used in the steel industry, electrolytic manganese has been in a situation of overcapacity in recent years, and due to the risk of pollution of the environment in manganese production, the temple has repeatedly gone down to rectify the relevant players. In addition, the energy consumption dual control policy launched at the end of last year is also a blow to the supply of manganese. The supply side of the multi-factor superposition, the electrolytic manganese, which has always been running at a low level, finally sat on the rocket last year, and its price was close to 45,000 yuan / ton, which was also a new high in nearly fifteen years.
Spot price of electrolytic manganese (Shanghai nonferrous)
But to say what makes manganese metal attract attention, it must be its application in the battery, after all, there is no backwater in the hearts of investors, only trillions of blue oceans.
Second, what is the elixir?
In the power battery, manganese also has a variety of forms, such as lithium manganate, has matured in the electric bicycle and low-speed electric vehicle market, 2020 shipments of about 66,000 tons.
Another example is manganese sulfate, which is one of the important raw materials for the preparation of nickel-cobalt manganese oxide lithium battery ternary cathode material precursors, and if the ternary lithium battery continues to become the hegemon of the battery circle in the future, manganese sulfate can also hitch a ride. According to the agency's forecast, it is expected that the global downstream demand for manganese sulfate will increase to 520,000 tons in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 17%.
But these are actually not what the author wants to talk about, because the above two products have been industrialized on a large scale, and there is nothing unusual. So what are the products that may emerge as the next generation of industrialization? That is lithium iron manganese phosphate (LMFP).
Seeing this, you may wonder, what is its advantage or disadvantage compared to lithium iron phosphate (LFP)? Lithium ferromanganese phosphate has a relatively higher operating voltage (up to 4.2 volts), better low temperature performance, and is 20% higher than lithium iron phosphate in terms of energy density. In terms of process, the process method of the two is more similar, but the technical core of lithium iron manganese phosphate lies in the proportion of ferromanganese, which will have a significant impact on the nature of the battery's discharge efficiency, capacity, safety, etc., so in recent years, both the academic community and the industry are accelerating research in this area (the number of patents for LMFP has reached 700), which is also an important part of the player's establishment of a "moat".
Comparison of the positive poles of three batteries (Zhiyan Consulting)
At the same time, the author would like to emphasize that it is not that the emergence of lithium iron manganese phosphate is to replace ternary and lithium iron phosphate, and its relationship with the two is more like a brother than an enemy. What do you mean by that? It has been reported that lithium ferromanganese phosphate can be used in combination with ternary materials, which can play their respective advantages, and when solving the problem of low safety of ternary cathode, the conductivity problem of lithium ferromanganese phosphate can also be less prominent.
Lithium iron-manganese phosphate composite material
1+1 can also not be equal to 2 in some special cases.
From the perspective of the application prospect of large-scale industrialization, the main players in the downstream include Ningde Era (30075), BYD (002594), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074) and so on. It is expected that mass production will be stable this year or next year, and gradually applied to electric vehicles.
Third, it is mostly impossible to come out of nowhere
Since last year, the soaring price of raw materials for power batteries (such as lithium carbonate) has become a focus topic in the automotive industry. This trend is transmitted downstream, and in the end, it is the profit margin of the car seller that is squeezed.
Musk at this time node for manganese voice, the author feels that this is not empty, the launch of new products may be secondary, by finding alternative products, thereby suppressing the price of lithium batteries key metals, may be the real reason.
In Musk's treasure gourd, it may be this flavored sweat medicine that is sold.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.