Metals rose iron ore rose 2.42%, manganese silicon rose 20 times in a row, and European line container transportation rose 14.64% #铁矿 #锰硅

Metals Market:

As of today's day close, the domestic base metals rose, Shanghai lead rose 1.25%, Shanghai copper rose 1.12%, Shanghai zinc, tin, nickel rose below 0.50%, Shanghai aluminum, alumina fell 0.39%, 0.92% respectively. Among them, Shanghai lead brush has reached a new high of 18,285 yuan/ton since December 18, 2018.

LME metals are red across the board, and as of 15:27 today, the metals have risen below 1.00%.

Lithium carbonate and industrial silicon fell 2.15% and 0.12% respectively. Manganese silicon brushed a new high of 9,116 yuan/ton since April 18, 2022 today, closing up 6.75%, floating red for 20 consecutive days, and the largest increase in May reached 15.59%.

The black series was mixed, iron ore rose 2.42%, rebar and hot coil rose 0.93% and 0.61% respectively, stainless steel closed flat, and bifocal fell 1.00% and 0.79% respectively. Among them, coking coal fell four times in a row, and coke fell five times in a row.

Precious metals, Shanghai gold and silver rose 0.65% and 0.33% respectively. As of 15:27 today, COMEX gold and silver fell 0.79% and 0.42% respectively.

The main line of European line container transportation continued to rise today, brushing a record high of 4034.3, closing up 14.64%, and floating red for seven consecutive days.

As of 15:27 today

Spot & Fundamentals

Copper:

Today's spot premium continued to rise, and the trading performance was dismal against the background of the widening of the monthly difference. According to SMM research, the inventory in Shanghai this week was 276,900 tons, and the storage volume decreased due to the maintenance of some smelters in the north and the export of some sources. However, at present, the trend of destocking has not yet appeared, and it is expected that the spot premium will easily rise and fall before delivery.

Lead:

According to SMM research, only 2 working days before the delivery of the Shanghai Lead 2405 contract, the holders handed over the warehouse and moved the warehouse, and the inventory of lead ingots continued to be transferred from the warehouse of the smelter to the social warehouse, and the social inventory rose again. At present, the lead market is showing a trend of both supply and demand.

Iron ore:

At present, overseas steel investment planning projects are all over the world, but from the perspective of the projects that have been successfully put into production, they are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, especially the long-process projects are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and Europe. According to SMM statistics, as of 2023, about 24.8 million tons of overseas steel investment capacity has been put into operation, and the integrated production capacity of ironmaking and steelmaking continues to increase. In particular, Malaysia and Indonesia account for the vast majority of the mainland's blast furnace-converter capacity.

Macroscopic

On the US dollar:

As of 15:27 today, the dollar index fell 0.03%. Last Friday local time, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that she did not expect any interest rate cuts this year given the persistently high inflation. With inflation in the United States stubbornly high in the first three months of this year, many Fed officials are cautious about the next monetary policy.

U.S. jobless claims rose to their highest level in more than eight months last week, providing more evidence of a continued cooling labor market. The U.S. Department of Labor will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) this week, and the data will provide clues on progress towards the target.

On May 13, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1030 yuan per US dollar per dollar

Domestic:

The Foshan Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the Notice on Several Measures to Continue to Promote the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market by Nine Departments including the Foshan Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, announcing the implementation of 13 new real estate policies, including optimizing the calculation rules for floor area ratio, paying the land transfer price in installments, encouraging and supporting the "old for new" housing, and relaxing the policy of buying houses and households. It mentions that non-registered persons who hold their own legal property rights in the city can apply for household registration at the location of the house, and their spouses and minor children who live together can move with them. For business apartments and other types of residences that are used for residential residences, the price of water and electricity for residents' domestic water, electricity and gas shall be implemented for their water and electricity. (Finance Associated Press)

The Ministry of Finance issued the "2024 Arrangements for the Issuance of General Treasury Bonds and Ultra-long-term Special Treasury Bonds", in which the maturities of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are 20 years, 30 years and 50 years, and decided to issue 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 17, 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 24, and 50-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on June 14.

In terms of data:

Pay attention to the data such as the 1-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed in April on May 13.

Crude oil:

As of 15:27 today, U.S. oil and cloth oil rose 0.05% and 0.01% respectively. Despite the recent absence of a fundamental improvement in tensions in the Middle East and Israel's intent to intensify its military operations in the Gaza Strip, the response of the oil market has been relatively weak. While tensions between Israel and Hamas have not eased, the global supply of crude oil has not been affected. In particular, Iran's cautious attitude has effectively eased the nervousness of the market. In addition, Israel and Hamas are actively promoting peace talks, which provide the possibility of gradual stabilization of the situation in the future. As a result, the oil market has not experienced a sustained premium rise due to geopolitical factors.

OPEC producers have not sent a clear signal about the policy of cutting production after June. OPEC crude oil production fell by 210,000 b/d month-on-month in April, but Russia missed its production cut target, and Iraq and Kazakhstan still produced well above quotas, survey data showed. In addition, Iraq's oil minister hinted on Saturday that Iraq would not agree to extend the production cuts, and on Sunday changed his tune to say that the extension of the cuts was an OPEC affair and that the country would stick to any decision of the group. The back-and-forth of statements by oil producers may indicate that OPEC negotiations in early June will be more difficult. Russia has also tentatively released signals to increase production, which has also suppressed the bullish enthusiasm of the oil market.

After the recent decline in crude oil prices, domestic refined oil prices have fallen simultaneously, refinery profits have not improved significantly, diesel commercial inventories have not shown signs of depletion, and domestic gasoline demand has returned to normal after the May Day holiday. The latest EIA refined oil inventory data in the United States did not bring much boost to the market, and in this context, high and low sulfur fuel oil fell significantly in the intraday, once both fell more than 2%. From the perspective of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, there are still at least three large-scale refineries in Shandong planned to be overhauled in May, and the overall processing profit improvement is limited, and the upside of the number of high-sulfur fuel oil cargoes arriving at Hong Kong is limited. Downstream demand for low-sulfur fuel oil was flat, with Singapore's inventories rising to a three-week high of 20.8 million barrels last week.