The whole world, more and more chaotic by the war and the epidemic, the impact of the epidemic, so that He Xiaopeng and Yu Chengdong have said that the next Chinese auto industry may suffer a shutdown. The Russo-Ukrainian War brought a series of new pressures and new opportunities.
On February 16, russia did not go to war, but made a withdrawal of troops. Everything, on February 24, with the sound of several explosions over the Ukrainian capital Kiev, after which the army landed in Odessa.
To quote Fan Yongpeng, vice president of the Institute of Chinese Studies at Fudan University, this is a "world war" in which the truth has disappeared. From February 24 to now, the time has passed 52 days, because all kinds of true and false news in the mobile Internet era are flying all over the sky, the form of the war is getting more and more strange, the war reports are getting more and more strange, and the situation on the front line is becoming more and more strange, for example, today's Russian military attack situation is basically similar to March 9 more than a month ago.
People continue to speculate about when the war will end, and many authoritative media judge similarly, "May 9 is Russia's annual victory anniversary of the Great Patriotic War, and the war has reached the most critical period, because there is a high probability that Russia wants to end the war before this." ”
No one could say what was going to happen next, but it was clear that we were all in danger. The integrated industry of the whole field of industry, the automobile industry has suffered from price increases in almost the entire industry chain, including oil prices, car prices, raw materials, semiconductors, batteries, and even more including the US dollar continues to release water but has not obtained the expected return of capital, etc., inflation began to spread.
After 52 days of review, the global automotive pattern has returned to the early days of globalization
What the war brought about was undoubtedly that the original order was broken layer by layer and then rebuilt. Obviously, this time the Russian-Ukrainian war directly hit the previous "global operation logic", the global stock market + oil prices + natural gas prices + nickel + semiconductor raw materials + minerals are affected by this impact, in the continuous violent fluctuations.
Soaring crude oil prices, electronic special gas, nickel metals, palladium metal supply restrictions and other issues have been unable to be controlled in parts of Europe, rushing to the countries that are deeply globalized. In the short term, under the nest, there will be no eggs. In the medium and long term, the pressure is huge, but also because everything has two sides, in the new rules after the reconstruction, opportunities/resources will naturally be redistributed.
Returning to the topic of the automotive field, in the more than 50 days of the Russo-Ukrainian War, we have seen new struggles in the field of technology, new thinking of automobile companies, and the transformation of the pattern of the global automobile industry.
Wherever there is pressure, there must be a new way to break through, and then there is a new situation and trend.
Pressure, in the field of raw materials, pressure, in the field of supply chain, pressure, more geopolitical in the global pattern.
In the field of raw materials, Russia is very important in the supply of non-ferrous metals such as aluminum and copper, aluminum production accounts for 5.4% of the world, used in body structure, interior and exterior decoration, chassis and various types of box shells, and now, under the Russian-Ukrainian war, the price of aluminum has risen.
Russia is also the world's largest producer of palladium, accounting for 40% of global production. Palladium, widely used in the production of gasoline engine catalytic converters, is also a key material for the manufacture of chips.
As well, nickel for the power battery part. Russia's nickel production accounts for about 9% of the world's total production, and the supply of high-purity nickel accounts for more than 15% of the global supply. According to public information, the rare gas inventory of global semiconductor companies can be used normally for 6 months, and the supply chain of major chip-related manufacturers has not been affected. However, under the continuous supply interruption, the semiconductor interruption crisis will further increase.
The auto industry is not a charity industry, so the tide of price increases is coming
The automobile industry, of course, is not a charity industry, and people who have worked in large companies know that the KPIs will continue to be pressed down, and even if there is an adjustment, it will not give up core profits. The latest round of price increases of Mercedes-Benz is actually unable to hold back, and it has carried out many price adjustments in overseas markets, because of the changeable global exchange rate, but also because the technical indicators of many parts are higher, and there are very few alternatives. Mercedes-Benz first increased prices, followed by BMW, Audi has not yet moved. Of course, the follow-up pressure is not expected to be large, because the market competition is fierce, and the requirements for sales volume and rebates in the 4S store operation model will essentially share the premium.
The price increase of traditional fuel vehicles is still spreading in the upper layer, so consumer perception is not large. The perception is greater, and it is obvious that in the field of new energy, including pure electric vehicle models and PHEV models are rising. The price increase of some electric vehicles even exceeds 15% of the original car price, and the price increase of some PHEV is even more than 7%.
The price of batteries is rising, so there are also related companies that give new technologies and want to reduce costs. Since lithium cannot be removed at present, it is necessary to reduce the proportion of nickel. Panasonic, which is pushing for the complete removal of nickel, as well as BYD's blade batteries and Guoxuan Hi-Tech's new batteries, are all studying possible ways for lithium iron phosphate to break through.
The lithium iron phosphate battery that BYD is currently loading has an energy density of 140Wh/kg, and the second generation of blade batteries will be launched in 2022, and the energy density will reach 180Wh/kg;
2. Guoxuan Hi-Tech achieved mass production of 230Wh/kg lithium iron phosphate batteries at the end of this year, and the energy density target for lithium iron phosphate exceeded 260Wh/kg this year;
Panasonic's technical solutions, not yet known, and the new technology solutions of the three Chinese power battery companies, in fact, more in the structure of the article, through the mold, details of the innovation, basically can reach the same energy density as the NCM523 ternary lithium battery 165Wh / kg.
Note that this is the current ceiling of related technical capabilities, and the expectation is that it has the ability to replace the power batteries of low-end models. However, some enterprises that control nickel resources, such as Tesla, which holds nickel orders and 4680 in its hands, will rely on high-nickel batteries to improve performance, and even create a Chinese special version of less than 200,000.
Therefore, the next situation is that Chinese car companies that master the new capabilities of lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to provide relatively longer battery life at the same cost, and Tesla relies on algorithms to make up for it. At the same time, there will be another core difference, the choice of future electric vehicles by users in the north and south will be inherently different because of the relevant temperature throughout the year and the choice of lithium iron phosphate.
There are small changes in the automotive technology landscape, and larger ones at the corporate level
In the field of power batteries, the next may be greatly changed, one is cheap and affordable but low temperature performance of general lithium iron phosphate, the other is the ternary lithium pie holding nickel ore in the hand. Automotive technology, now has a small change. Bigger changes, in the car company that part.
The recent announcement by Volkswagen that it would cut dozens of models by 2030 shook the global automotive scene. Audi A1, Audi Q2, Sagitar (overseas Jetta), Volkswagen Polo, Sharon, etc., may be further cut. At the same time, the Eastern European market has always been the main market for the Skoda brand, and under the influence of the war, it has become a negative asset for the public. The Skoda brand may once again find its own way out after experiencing World War I and World War II, being taken over by the Soviet Union, and being taken over by Volkswagen. At the same time, Volkswagen is currently in the state of high-speed transformation of electric vehicles, the funding gap is very large, cutting off the core demand of models/brands with relatively insufficient profitability is to improve the level of profitability. And this means that its next round of product lines will be more focused and high-end, higher pricing, and the pursuit of sales figures, not as urgent as the current.
The price increase in pricing is likely to be a new trend under the Volkswagen Group in front of you and me. As for Volkswagen after cutting dozens of models, it does not pursue high sales figures, which means that there are new vacancies in the market, giving other car companies the opportunity to fill the position and even get on the position.
For example, in the small Russian market (1.667 million units in 2021), Chinese car companies can expand their business lines a little, but this is not easy, because they also have to consider the next step of international relations.
Will Chinese car companies have opportunities to make up for their positions in the global market?
What should really be seen is the Chinese car market, in the continuous fluctuations, Chinese car companies have won new market share. At present, the inherent form of globalization that has been formed before has been torn apart by the Russo-Ukrainian war + epidemic. It is increasingly difficult for Chinese car companies to seek to test the waters in the developed markets, because after the new pressures of globalization, local car companies have greater significance than ever.
In the Chinese auto market, the pace of reshuffling will become faster and faster. After the development of recent years, Changan, Geely, Great Wall, etc. have achieved more than 1 million / year of passenger car sales, the average transaction price in many fields has also increased to 120,000-150,000 yuan, directly and joint venture brands began to clash hard. Even, because of the power of new energy, such as Weilai and Ideal, it has really grabbed the share of BBA and second-tier luxury brands.
At present, there is another layer of trend in the Chinese market, and traditional enterprises that have been operating for many years and are very mature have also given new ways to play.
For example, WEY recently announced its own new way of playing, the future strategic development direction of the company, is to continuously provide high-end, intelligent, new energy products, zero anxiety intelligent electric vehicles. Its new car technology includes long-endurance PHEV (pure electric range of more than 200 kilometers), intelligent driving system that supports navigation and active pilotage, and main retro products, and even MPV products.
The more core change lies in the adjustment of operational logic at the enterprise level. To a certain extent, WEY Weipai is the first brand in the traditional car company to seek to break away from the 4S store model. It will be a new batch of sales channels in 2022, in the form of three-party shares, WEY will invest more than 50% of the proportion to build stores, the second party is the investor's capital injection, only injected dividends, but does not participate in the operation, the third party, is the store manager who opens up to the outside world.
Different from the traditional 4S store's two-party equity (car brand + local investors), the traditional model is that the manufacturer wants to make money, the investor also wants to make money, the manufacturer builds the car according to its own understanding, wholesales the car to the 4S store, and then sells it to consumers. Everyone wants to make money, especially in recent years, the auto market competition has become more and more fierce, and the development speed of major brands has become faster and faster, so the profits of 4S stores are getting thinner and thinner, and there is a series of riotous operations for consumers. Friends who have bought a car basically know that there are many costs in different categories in the 4S store, and the speed of solving the vehicle problem is also very slow.
In the new model of WEY, the new sales channel is to remove the competition for profits and make money together. The store manager who attracts merchants is directly responsible for WEY, and can even be an employee hired by WEY, and the more he sells, the more he gets. Investors do not participate in the operation, high costs are given by WEY, enjoy dividends. WEY, on the other hand, is holding back the need to improve the consumer experience, and even wants to surpass the service satisfaction of the new forces.
Considering more about the future development of the brand, consumer satisfaction, and paying special attention to profitability in a short period of time, it is clear that this brand is seeking to delay satisfaction, rather than simply selling cars to make money.
Once WEY's model is recognized by consumers, it is clear that it will be fully developed within the Great Wall Motor Group and used by other brands. Consumers who are not satisfied with the product, price, configuration, etc., will quickly feedback back to the brand, and think and adjust accordingly. Moreover, other brands will also begin to think and apply related things.
At this time, there will be a real violent collision between the traditional model and the new model.
The pattern in front of you and me will most likely be that the traditional joint venture brand is still maintained, you come to buy, buy as much as possible to rely on different ways to tie the after-sales model in the store; and the new forces, more Chinese brands, can play the user satisfaction priority experience, there are problems to mention, just talk, not just simply talk about the price.
You can make up the picture at that time, consumers who are thinking about trying new experiences will take sides, and consumers who have a good sense of traditional brands will try it in the new experience, and they may like the new and tired of the old. At that time, whoever can stand on the wind outlet will be able to find a new path to the top.
And this kind of program, there is a probability of replacing the 4S store model, if you play well, and then further push to the overseas market, then the next answer, the probability is good.
Write at the end:
For now, though, it's just speculation about possibilities. Whether it can be successful depends on how Chinese car companies will actually land next, and whether the idea is only on the slogan, and whether the idea can continue to play new tricks.
On the 52nd day since the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the outcome of everything is unclear. Many car companies are seeking new possibilities in the upper position, but the technology is not easy to break through in a short time, and after the adjustment of global car companies, the vacated market share is a real fat meat.
Under the new way of playing, the opportunities for Chinese car companies are obviously greater than in the past, gradually from 50% and 50% to a favorable position. But can our chances of making up a position reach 60% or more?
The best solution at hand, in fact, one or several enterprises can not drive, look at the current situation in Shanghai, the layout of the automobile industry, adjustment ability, etc., these are the variables and help that have a greater impact. If this is not adjusted, it will really stop production in the next step, then in fact, the upper position of Chinese car companies has become another topic.