The author | Biran
Editor| Auton
Record oil prices have stung the nerves of ordinary people.
There are still more than 30 hours to go before the fifth refined oil price adjustment this year, and the gas station located near the northwest fourth ring road in Beijing has been lined up; at 8 p.m. on March 17, more than 40 vehicles are crowded into the gas station near the Nanshawo Bridge; at 24:00, the oil price is determined to be "five consecutive increases", the No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline are raised by 0.59 yuan and 0.62 yuan per liter, and it will cost about 30 yuan to fill a tank of oil.
"When I bought a car, the oil price was 5 yuan 8, and the oil price rose to 9 yuan in a year and a half." Ni Xiao, the owner of the car who queued up to refuel, sighed to Tencent Automobile, and the owner Li Ran said, "In order to save some money, there was a queue for 1 hour on the afternoon of the 17th. Taxi driver Wang Lang calculated an account for Tencent Automobile, most of the fuel truck drivers daily fuel costs 150-200 yuan, while driving new energy vehicles he has a daily electricity bill of about 60 yuan, "from the cost of the car, or save some trams."
According to Tencent Auto's survey, nearly 40% of oil truck users spend more than 1,000 yuan per month, more than half of new energy vehicle users have a monthly car cost of less than 300 yuan, and more than 40% of users said that they "consider buying new energy vehicles because of rising oil prices."
Li Ran, a user who "considers buying a new energy vehicle", told Tencent Automobile, "I don't want to drive now, it is blocked and expensive, and it is not as convenient as taking the subway." However, in the face of the price of new energy vehicles flying with oil prices, Li Ran began to hesitate again, and oil or electricity seemed to have become a dilemma.
More than 40 models of car price adjustment: no car in the store, no discount
On the day of the rise in oil prices, Tesla announced price increases again, and all models of the domestic Model 3 and Model Y were fully adjusted within a week; on the same day, Chery New Energy announced that some of its models were raised by 3,000-4,100 yuan, and the prices of Nezha models on sale ranged from 3,000 to 5,000 yuan; BYD Dynasty Network and Ocean Network related new energy models also raised prices from 00:00 on March 16, ranging from 3,000-6,000 yuan; the next day, Xiaopeng Automobile announced a price increase ranging from 10,100 to 20,000 yuan.
According to the incomplete statistics of Tencent Automobile, in the past half a month alone, 40 models of nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases, ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan, involving Tesla, Great Wall, BYD, Ean, Chery, Nezha and other brands of Model Y, Euler Good Cat, AION Y and other models.
The pressure on car companies to raise prices was quickly transmitted to terminals and consumers. "I only learned about the price increase two days ago." Chery new energy dealer Wang Jun showed Tencent Automobile's WeChat group chat records show that from March 17, the price of the vehicle he bought from the manufacturer will also increase.
"The price increase is also good, the key is that there is no car, now I only have 8 small ants on hand, and cars like Bingqiling are generally sold in Beijing, but in the unlimited third-tier cities, they are basically out of supply." Wang Jun told Tencent Automobile that QQ ice cream has never had a discount since its listing at the beginning of the year, and it takes about a month or two to order a car, "Recently, I am trying to grab a car from a manufacturer, but I can't grab it at all."
A similar situation is perfectly replicated in the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV macaron and the Changan Benben E-Star National Edition models. Wuling dealer Li Lei and Changan dealer Zhao Dan both told Tencent Automobile that there are no stock vehicles in its store, and consumers need to make reservations if they want to buy a car, and the waiting time is about two months. In addition, according to the official news of the Great Wall Euler, the receipt of black cat and white cat orders has been completely suspended.
After Tencent Auto visited the 4S stores in Beijing, it found that not only are there no discounts for A00-class new energy model terminals below 50,000 yuan, but the prices of most of the new energy models on sale are consistent with the official guidance price, and the waiting time for car purchase notices varies from 2-3 months.
Some people are in a hurry to pick up the car, but some people try to resell the order, and the car market is caught in another strange circle. "I have two Tesla orders that can get in the car within a week." Tesla booking owner Wang Xian in the car friends group to share information soon, there are friends asked whether there is a willingness to transfer orders, Wang Xian hesitated after the price of the order and the current car price compared the price, "one up 40,000 a rise of 30,000."
In fact, in the second-hand car market and second-hand platforms, there are already many sellers who have made tens of thousands of yuan in the form of "scalping new car orders" to earn the difference. Xu Jin, a used car dealer, told Tencent Auto that it has sold nearly 60 Tesla used cars in the past month, earning 6,000-8,000 yuan per car.
Tencent Auto found on a second-hand platform with keywords such as new car order transfer that many users were transferring some popular models such as Tesla and Extreme Kr that were about to be delivered or had increased prices.
However, similar transactions carry certain risks. Extreme Krypton Sales Qiancheng once told Tencent Automobile that in addition to paying attention to basic information such as vehicle configuration price, it is also necessary to confirm whether the order can transfer the contact and other information together, "otherwise it may be that your vehicle registration information is in the name of others, and the app also needs to log in with other people's information, so there is some uncertainty." Xu Jin said, "This kind of second-hand car transaction is very risky, and the price of the car will continue to rise, and the order resale default will occur." ”
In response to the above phenomenon, Yan Jinghui, a member of the expert committee of the China Automobile Circulation Association, told Tencent Automobile that the resale of new energy vehicle orders is actually a secondary transfer, and the retention rate of this car is certainly not as good as that of the car that has not been transferred, so it is recommended that consumers still buy new cars through formal channels.
The cost pressure of car companies has intensified: "Selling one loses 10,000"
The rise in raw material prices and the decline in new energy subsidies are the root causes of the increase in vehicle prices. In 2022, the national new energy vehicle subsidy will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and the subsidy will be terminated until December 31, 2022, when the new energy market subsidy will be officially withdrawn. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, the prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other materials in the upstream of the new energy vehicle supply chain have been in a state of rapid rise.
Roland Berger deputy partner Zhuang Jingqian told Tencent Automobile that the core material lithium salt of the power battery has risen from 8,000 US dollars / ton in early 2021 to 70,000-80,000 US dollars / ton, and data from the business agency shows that the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in East China on March 10 has reached 491,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 900% compared with the price of 54,600 yuan / ton at the end of 2020.
The cost of power batteries is mainly determined by direct materials, although no power battery companies have announced their cost increases, but the market research institute IHS Markit data show that in the late 2021 lithium-ion battery prices rose by about 10% to 20%.
Zhuang Jingqian believes that in addition to power batteries, the lack of cores in automobiles has led to some OEMs having to purchase chips from unconventional channels at high prices, which has further increased the cost pressure of BOM (Bill of Materials, bill of materials).
Supply chain costs remain high, and raising car prices seems to have become the most direct and controllable means for car companies to reduce losses. Euler Automobile CEO Dong Yudong once issued a statement in response to the suspension of black cats and white cats, saying, "This car has brought huge losses to the company, and the loss of black cats alone in 2022 is more than 10,000 yuan." According to the statistics of the Association, the sales of Euler black cats in January this year were 3891 vehicles. This means that in January this year alone, the black cat brought a loss of nearly 40 million yuan to Euler.
"To survive." Dong Yudong's words revealed the hearts of many senior executives of car companies. According to him, the subsidy decline increased the cost of bicycles by 4,000, while the cost of batteries increased by 13%-15%, about 3,000 yuan, "a total increase of 7,000 yuan in costs, it is estimated that more than 150,000 products can make money." ”
Fang Yunzhou, founder and chairman of Nezha Automobile, said that the cost pressure faced by new energy vehicle manufacturers is increasing, and the price increase will have some impact on the entire automotive industry, including Nezha Automobile, but the impact is short-term, not continuous.
The relevant person in charge of GAC Aean told Tencent Automobile that the market pricing of the product is based on the overall industry and market environment, and the main reason for the price adjustment is due to the comprehensive impact of multiple factors such as the sharp rise in the price of chips and power battery raw materials, and the decline of new energy car purchase subsidies.
"This type of car cannot have preferential treatment, manufacturers do not make money by making cars, and dealers do not make money." Wang Jun revealed to Tencent Automobile that "selling cars is mainly for the purpose of volume and making up for the hole in new energy points."
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, told Tencent Automobile, "At present, most of the new energy vehicle companies are not profitable, especially under the premise of taking research and development expenses into account, so on the basis of corporate financial calculations, it is understandable that appropriate price increases to reduce the pressure of rising costs and reducing losses." ”
In Zhuang Jingqian's view, with the decline of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles and the increase in the capital market's requirements for the profit margin of car companies, most car companies need to increase car prices to improve the level of profitability, rather than adhering to the past strategy of sacrificing gross profit to seize market share at low prices, so as to make enterprises develop healthier and more sustainably.
The price increase of new energy vehicles will inhibit demand in the short term, and the market acceptance remains to be seen
There is a significant disparity in the cost of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, but when the oil price rises to "9 yuan", a key critical point may appear.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said on Tencent Automobile's analysis that according to the analysis results of the association, the whole life cycle cost of the car from car purchase to use is calculated, and when the oil price rises to more than 9 yuan / liter, the cost of new energy vehicles is lower than that of fuel vehicles.
"Rising oil prices will highlight the cheapness of electricity bills, especially when oil prices are getting higher." Xu Haidong believes that especially for users who buy a second car at home, if one oil truck is used for long-distance running or special occasions, and the other car is used for going to the supermarket, picking up children, turning around the city and other purposes, new energy vehicles are very suitable.
Zhuang Jingqian said that the rise in oil prices has directly led to an increase in the cost of fuel vehicles, which has further narrowed the gap between the TCO of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, and even the TCO of new energy models in some subdivisions has been lower than that of fuel vehicles.
According to Roland Berger's calculations, in the small car range of less than 100,000 yuan, some pure electric vehicle models can be as low as 20,000-40,000 yuan (such as Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, Nezha V, etc.), while the three-year TCO of fuel vehicles is still more than 40,000 yuan.
According to a survey by Tencent Automobile, whether consumers will choose new energy vehicles depends on cost considerations on the one hand, and other practical factors on the other hand. Among the users who do not consider choosing new energy vehicles, nearly 70% of users believe that new energy vehicles are "not convenient enough to charge", more than 50% of users choose to "dislike/distrust new energy vehicles", and only 2.3% of users do not consider buying new energy vehicles due to "license restrictions".
In Xu Haidong's view, some consumers are not particularly concerned about appropriate price increases after making purchase decisions, but it remains to be seen whether the market will accept this situation in the end. "If the price rises and the car can't be sold, I'm afraid that in the end I still have to lower the price."
"The automotive market still relies on scale effects, and the benign development of the new energy vehicle market also depends on this." Xu Haidong stressed that with the growth of scale, the price of new energy vehicles can be gradually reduced, and then compete with fuel vehicles, which is the correct market mechanism.
On the other hand, the current Chinese new energy vehicle market has moved from the era of policy leadership to the era of diversified driving that is truly dominated by market demand. From the demand side, users have changed from high endurance fans to more rational mileage demand, and the demand for intelligence is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles.
"New energy vehicles no longer need battery stacking, and car companies should pay more attention to how to improve battery efficiency, charging efficiency and safety performance." Zhuang Jingqian believes that the change in intelligent demand has also promoted car companies to continuously deepen the research and development of related functions, accelerate the development of new players and the entry of consumer electronics players in different industries.
For the trend of the new energy vehicle market this year, Roland Berger predicts that although the price increase of new energy vehicles will inhibit market demand in the short term, in the medium and long term, the price increase of new energy vehicles will not become the norm. Xu Haidong said that the China Automobile Association has not changed the sales forecast of China's new energy vehicles in 2022, "conservatively estimating 5 million units, a 42% increase."
(At the request of the communication partner, some people are pseudonyms, and Zhang Cuicui also contributed to this article)