The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has triggered an increase in chip costs the "core shortage" of automobiles or eased in the second half of the year

In 2022, chip shortages continue to plague the auto industry.

Recently, the production capacity of factories of Volkswagen, Ford Motor, Tesla and other automobile manufacturers has been affected by the shortage of chips, and they have to adjust production capacity and reduce production.

"The supply situation is improving, but even in 2022 we will not be able to build all the cars that can be sold." Volkswagen CEO Herbert Dies said. Due to the shortage of chips, Volkswagen recently announced that it will adjust the production capacity of some factories.

Auto Forecast Solutions ("AFS"), a data forecasting company for the automotive industry, released data that as of February 20, the global automotive market has reduced production by about 577,900 units this year due to chip shortages.

Tesla claimed that "in 2022, the chip shortage problem will continue, and whether the company can maintain rapid growth in the future depends on whether it can get sufficient chip supply." ”

In order to obtain more chips, the Reporter of China Business Daily learned that Dong Yudong, CEO of the Euler brand, said that wei Jianjun, chairman of Great Wall Motors, led executives to Shanghai not long ago. Dong Yudong said bluntly, "We have been on the road of urging the 'core'. ”

Some chip industry engineers told reporters that similar to 2021, there is a shortage of vehicle-grade MCUs. Hezhong Investment Research pointed out in the research report that although IGBT (chip), as the core component of new energy vehicles, will not restrict automobile production in the first half of the year, it may turn into a bottleneck in the second half of the year and affect the production of the whole vehicle.

At a time when automakers are worried about chip supply, Ukraine and Russia, important exporters of semiconductor raw materials such as neon, xenon and palladium, have clashed, allowing the automotive industry to meet the challenge again. However, a number of semiconductor industry insiders pointed out in an interview with reporters that in the short term, it will not have much impact on the chip, but there is no doubt that the reduction in the supply of raw materials such as neon and xenon will push up the price of chips.

However, some industry analysts and some automakers are optimistic about chip supply in the second half of the year, believing that the crisis may be alleviated in the second half of 2022.

The shortage of chips has caused many car companies to reduce production

"I am very aware of the critical situation in Wolfsburg. Wolfsburg has been particularly hard hit by the semiconductor situation. Therefore, capacity adjustments are necessary, and so is the medium term. Herbert Dies said recently.

According to AFS research data, as of February 20, Volkswagen's Wolfsburg plant is the world's largest plant to reduce automobile production this year, with an expected reduction of 70,300 units.

Volkswagen is not the only one affected by the chip shortage. Due to tight chip supply, On February 7, Ford Motor announced plans to suspend or cut production at eight of its plants in the United States, Mexico and Canada throughout the week.

Ford issued a warning that a shortage of chips would lead to a decline in the company's car production this quarter. According to Ford Motor, the company's auto production will recover slower in 2022 than rival General Motors.

During the same period, Mercedes-Benz announced that it would suspend orders for E-Class cars in Germany.

A Mercedes-Benz spokesperson said the company had suspended orders for the E-Class, a move aimed only at the German market. In an email to the media, the spokesperson said: "New cars in existing stock can still be ordered. ”

Tesla said that in 2022, the chip shortage will continue, and supply chain problems will become a fundamental factor limiting production in all factories. Whether the company can maintain rapid growth in the future depends on whether it can get sufficient chip supply, and if the chip shortage problem can be alleviated, the company is confident of maintaining a growth rate of more than 50%.

Domestically, affected by the shortage of chips and other factors, the Great Wall Motor Euler brand announced that from February 15, the Euler brand will no longer accept new orders for black cat and white cat models.

Dong Yudong said, "It is helpless to stop receiving orders, in the environment of 'lack of core and less electricity', the total number of orders waiting for black and white cats to be delivered to users has exceeded 20,000 vehicles, according to the current production volume, if orders continue to be received, the delivery of new orders will wait until the second half of 2022." ”

Dong Yudong said, "At present, black and white cats are mainly insufficient supply of ESP chips, which is the shortage of chips in the world automotive industry, due to fire, epidemic, low production capacity of wafers and other reasons, Malaysian factories can not meet global demand." ”

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict affects the supply of raw materials for chips

Recently, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has made the semiconductor industry can't help but shiver, so that it is difficult for car companies that have frequently announced production cuts and temporarily suspended production due to insufficient supply not to worry about chip supply.

How does the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict affect semiconductor chips? It is understood that Ukraine supplies about 70% of the world's neon gas, and supplies about 40% of the world's krypton, as well as 30% of the krypton. Russia controls nearly 40 percent of the world's production of palladium.

"Russia and Ukraine are the world's leading exporters of nickel, palladium, neon and other materials, which play a key role in the semiconductor manufacturing process and are important materials for laser applications, sensors, memory chips, and exposure and etching processes." Lin Zhi, chief analyst of the international market research agency Wit Display, said in an interview with reporters, "Although the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has no substantial impact on the semiconductor industry in the short term, because semiconductor manufacturers have a certain inventory and can maintain normal production, there is uncertainty in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which cannot prevent the prices of nickel, palladium and neon from soaring, of which the price of neon gas has risen by 200%. ”

"Chipmakers don't feel any direct impact at the moment, but the companies that supply them with raw materials for semiconductor processes are buying gases such as neon and palladium from Russia and Ukraine." A Person in the Japanese Chip Industry pointed out.

In the face of the risk of supply interruption of semiconductor raw materials, some semiconductor manufacturers said that the current stock is sufficient; some manufacturers choose to sign long orders to reduce the risk of supply interruption. Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of Micron, the largest U.S. maker of computer memory chips, recently said, "For Micron, we do have a small supply of inert gases from Ukraine, but we already have a large inventory and, more importantly, we have multiple sources of supply." ”

South Korea is extremely dependent on imported neon gas. According to the Korea International Trade Association, 28.3 percent of South Korea's neon imports last year came from Ukraine (23.0 percent) and Russia (5.3 percent). The procurement of inert gases such as neon gas has become a concern for South Korea.

Still, the heads of south Korea's two largest semiconductor companies unanimously said they "don't have to worry too much." Li Zhengpei, president of Samsung Electronics, said, "We are well prepared. Lee Seok-hee, president and CEO of SK Hynix, said, "We have secured a lot of inventory."

According to Taiwan media reports, chip manufacturers such as TSMC, UMC, and Nanyake have revealed that they have increased the stock of key gases while increasing the diversity of suppliers, which can avoid the impact of geopolitical events in the short term. Among them, UMC has signed a long-term contract with neon gas supplier Taishi Technology to lock in production capacity and price in advance - the company is also the first wafer foundry to ensure the supply of key gases in advance.

In reply to TSMC's response to the impact of the situation, Taishi Technology said that if the conflict lasts for one month, the stock is enough to support it; if it lasts for three months, it will be urgent; if it lasts for one year, it will be out of stock.

Chip shortages may ease in the second half of the year

Some automakers are optimistic that the chip shortage crisis could be eased in the second half of 2022.

"Affected by the shortage of semiconductors caused by supply chain disruptions and the soaring demand for chips in the electronic equipment industry, the chip shortage in the global automotive industry will not be resolved in 2022, but it is expected to gradually ease in the second half of the year." Murat Axel, head of purchasing at Volkswagen Group, said.

Ford motor vehicles said that in the second half of the year, car production is expected to increase significantly. He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, also said at the end of 2021, "In the current environment, it is expected to take more than half a year to solve the problem of chip shortage. ”

"Although the shortage of automotive chip supply has been gradually alleviated, there is still a certain gap compared with the demand and scheduling plans of vehicle and parts companies." Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out, "Considering that the world's major chip companies have increased the production and supply of vehicle-grade chips, new production capacity will also be released this year, and the supply capacity of some domestic chip products is also gradually improving, and it is expected that the supply situation of automotive chips will continue to improve." ”

However, on how long the chip supply can reach the balance between supply and demand, a number of semiconductor industry practitioners told reporters that it is difficult to say.

The sales manager of a chip company in Shanghai told reporters, "The types of chips missing this year have decreased compared with last year, because domestic chip brands are doing car regulations." For example, BYD's car specification-level IGBT. It is expected that after 3 years, 30% to 50% of the vehicle-grade chips can be localized. ”

The reporter paid attention to the fact that the black swan events such as the epidemic, natural disasters, and conflicts have restricted the release of semiconductor supply-side production capacity, prompting car companies to communicate directly with chip manufacturers more actively and develop more alternative solutions to deal with chip shortages.

In dealing with chip shortages, Volkswagen is more experienced than in 2020. Murat Axel said, "There is clearly a structural imbalance in the chip industry, and the demand for chips in the automotive industry will continue to rise. Therefore, instead of waiting until the chip supply is in short supply to buy from the chip supplier, it is better to cooperate more closely with the chip supplier earlier to grasp more initiative. ”

It is understood that Volkswagen has introduced a chip early warning system, and Volkswagen engineers have identified about 150 technical alternatives to replace the shortage of semiconductors.

Great Wall Motors, which has set a sales target of 1.9 million vehicles in 2022, is led by Wei Jianjun, chairman of the company, to visit the chip company and seek chips. He Xiaopeng revealed that "in order to solve the shortage of millimeter-wave radar chips, he often plays 'flying' to drink alcohol to obtain more chip supply." ”

"Car companies actively communicate with chip manufacturers, in the past car companies are in contact with parts and components first-level suppliers, but now the chip shortage, car companies are actively communicating with chip manufacturers, clear demand is convenient to eliminate the impact of lack of cores faster." Auto analyst Zhang Xiang pointed out.