In February, the sales data of various passenger cars were disclosed one after another, and from a macro point of view, the overall insurance data of passenger cars in February was 1.157 million units, down 10.6% year-on-year.
And a few data related to new energy vehicles I will list first -
Sales of passenger cars of caucus of China Automobile Association (including exports): 419,000 units in January and 321,000 units in February, totaling 740,000 units;
Exports of passenger cars of CAAM caliber: 56,000 units in January and 48,000 units in February, totaling 104,000 units;
Wholesale data of the caliber of the association (including exports): 417,000 units in January, 317,000 units in February, a total of 734,000 units;
· Retail sales data of the caliber of the association: 352,000 units in January, 272,000 units in February, a total of 624,000 units;
Insurance data: 315,700 units in January, 239,000 units in February, a total of 554,700 units
There is a time difference here - the insurance data lags behind the retail (store) data of wholesale and manufacturer statistics, so the difference between the above data is caused.
Figure 1 Comparison of data by channel
Part 1 : Overview of macro risk data
When I add up the insurance data in January and February (in order to eliminate the difference caused by the Spring Festival holiday in different months), I can see that the overall data for the two months is less than 4 million units. With the rise in oil prices - the demand for traditional fuel vehicles will be further suppressed, we need to judge an interesting core situation: in the pursuit of electric vehicles and fuel vehicle parity, due to the high oil price of fuel vehicles under the increasing cost of fuel vehicles, so that a considerable number of high mileage commuter users will first change to electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid models, this part of the change is objective.
Figure 2 Comparison of insurance data from January to February 2016-2022
This year's chip supply problems still exist objectively, with the beginning of March due to the epidemic repeated various home policies, so that the first half of 2022 in the opening of the situation is closer to 2020.
Figure 3 The year-on-year insurance data from 2021 to 2022 has been sluggish for a long time
That is to say, on the supply side, whether it is a vehicle company or a parts company, there will be continuous difficulties. Until a response to the epidemic is found in 2022, the disturbance is objective.
Figure 4 March or April 2022 may be punched out of a "big pit"
From the perspective of manufacturer data, the overall situation in February is shown in Table 2 below, and I will not expand one by one.
Table 1 Basic overview of the insurance data for February
Part 2: Trends in the New Energy Vehicle Market and Specific Models
For the BEV and PHEV situation of key car companies, I made the following chart. In February, in the field of pure electric power, the first place is actually Wuling's 30,408 units (but Wuling I will not track it from time to time, otherwise it is a bit of a suspicion of bragging about the god car); the second is BYD's 29,725 units, and the third is Tesla's 24,197 units. In the field of plug-in hybrids, the top two are BYD's 36,731 units and the ideal 8,370 units. The good news is that Geely and Changan have 1,000 plug-in hybrid stations, surpassing the traditional PHEV large-scale SAIC passenger cars.
Figure 5 Comparison of pure electric and plug-in data of major car companies from January to February
Entering 2022, Tesla, which took the lead in continuing to increase prices, still maintained high sales, and the difference in the ability to digest costs this year is mainly reflected in the recognition of brands and consumers, and the amount of follow-up new forces in this area may be further differentiated.
Figure 6 Sales of major models of the new car-making forces in February
For traditional car companies, with the sale of new energy credits in 2022, from the perspective of attitude, there will be differentiation between those who want to do and those who do not want to do (continue to increase transformation and investment or continue to "mix"). Euler's discontinuation of black and white cats to the high-end is actually a strategy for traditional car companies to maintain the continuous existence of their models. Geely ZEEKR this way can go, although there are more negative, but its cost-effective advantage can still stand.
Figure 7 Comparison of January and February sales of major traditional car companies
Finally, in 2022, BYD, which has a strong impact, at present, the DM-i series is really a product with a sharp increase in word-of-mouth and practicality in the era of high oil prices, and with the switching of Han DM to DM-i, the sales of this series of models will be even higher. In terms of pure electric series, the curve of the dolphin of the E3 series that takes the integrated route is beyond expectations.
Figure 8 Bydir new energy vehicle insurance data for January and February 2022
brief summary:
In 2022, the automotive industry has been changing with the changes in the macro environment, and under the changes in the general environment, its own changes will sometimes tend to accelerate, which is sometimes a good thing.
Figure | network and related screenshots
About author:Zhu Yulong, senior electric vehicle three-electric system and automotive electronics engineer, author of "Automotive Electronics Hardware Design".
Write a message
2030 Mobility Research Laboratory
The first in China to consist entirely of PhDs
In-depth research organization for new mobility in automobiles
·
Zhihu private message ID: Fish is not fish