Oil can not afford, cars can not afford to buy, this consumer should choose how to choose...

Text | Jiao Yue Li Yu Cheng

The cost pressure of new energy vehicles is transmitted positively to the demand side. On the night of March 15, BYD issued a notice on its official Weibo that it would adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to Dynasty and Ocean Network from 00:00 on March 16, ranging from 3,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan.

In addition to BYD, a number of new energy vehicle companies have recently announced price increases. In this regard, Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center of The North China University of Technology, told the Securities Daily reporter that the price increase of new energy vehicle companies can play a role in passing on costs, and the price increase is a means to adjust the contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the impact on the sales volume of the downstream market is relatively limited at present.

Raw material prices rose Many car companies raised their prices

As for the reason for the increase in the official guidance price, BYD said that it was affected by the continuous sharp rise in raw material prices. In fact, this is not the first time that BYD has recently raised the price of all its new energy models. Previously, on January 21, BYD has made a round of price increases for the official guidance price of its new energy models, ranging from 1,000 yuan to 7,000 yuan, effective from February 1.

In addition to BYD, GAC Aeon and Tesla China have also recently raised prices. On March 15, Tesla China's official website showed that the model 3 high-performance version and the Model Y long-lasting and high-performance version increased in price, ranging from 18,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan. On March 4, GAC Aean announced a price increase for the second time in the year, adjusting the official guidance price of its AION Y, AION S Plus, AION V Plus and other related models, ranging from 4,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan.

According to CCTV financial data, since entering March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases, involving nearly 40 models.

"Since the beginning of this year, the price of new energy vehicles has risen generally. After the decline of central and local purchase subsidies, the actual cost of new energy models of various car companies generally rose by 2,000 yuan to more than 3,000 yuan. Wang Meiting, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that the battery cost accounts for about 40% of the cost of new energy vehicles, due to the rising price of core raw materials such as cobalt, lithium and nickel, the battery cost continues to rise, so new energy vehicle manufacturers continue to transmit the cost of core components such as batteries to the downstream.

Taking lithium salt, the main raw material of power batteries, as an example, Wind information data shows that as of March 16, the prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were 503,000 yuan / ton and 486,500 yuan / ton, respectively, an increase of 4.99 times and 6.26 times over a year ago, an increase of 19.19% and 36.33% respectively over a month ago, with a large increase, and the cost pressure transmitted to car companies increased.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, said in an interview with reporters that due to the recent rapid rise in lithium ore prices, coupled with the risk of rising nickel prices, BYD, Tesla and other car companies have proposed the choice of price increases, and at present, price increases can partially transform their cost pressure.

"If the current price rises further, it may have a negative impact on the industry and will become the biggest black swan in the new energy industry chain this year." Wang Meiting said.

The impact of price increases is limited By a variety of factors to offset the impact

Under the background of the current price increases by new energy vehicle companies, will the terminal consumer market be affected to a certain extent? In this regard, Zhang Xiang believes that the industry has previously had a large-scale delay in delivery due to the lack of cores, and many users who picked up the car in the second half of the year have paid a deposit in the first half of the year, which is less affected by the price increase.

Cui Dongshu also believes that the recent car companies are mainly for new user orders, the next two or three months to get delivery of the user locked in the original price, overall the risk of enterprise price increases is small, can improve the efficiency at the same time to obtain stable expectations, in addition to proving that the current demand for new energy vehicles is relatively strong, enterprise prices can be smoothly transmitted.

A relevant person from GAC Group said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that the gagac Aeon price adjustment took effect from the announcement on March 4, and customers who had paid a deposit on the GAC Eian App before that were not affected by the price adjustment.

"At present, the unit price of models with price increases is mostly more than 150,000 yuan, and the target users are generally middle-class, and consumers can bear it to a certain extent after the price increase." Zhang Xiang said that from the sales situation in January and February this year, it can be seen that the development of the new energy vehicle market is still good.

According to data recently released by the China Automobile Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in February reached 368,000 units and 334,000 units, respectively, an increase of 2 times and 1.8 times year-on-year, respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 820,000 units and 765,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.6 times and 1.5 times year-on-year, respectively, and the market share reached 17.9%.

From a structural point of view, the performance of high-end models is strong, which may become one of the bases for the price increase of related car companies. According to the data of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales of A-class and B-class new energy pure electric passenger cars in February were 57,000 units and 85,500 units, respectively, an increase of 319% and 124% year-on-year, and the growth rate was higher than that of A00 (105%). BYD and Tesla China's new energy passenger car sales in February reached 87,500 units and 56,500 units, respectively, up 754% and 118% year-on-year, respectively.

Wang Meiting said that objectively speaking, the price increase of new energy vehicles will indeed inhibit demand, and will further lead to the situation that new energy vehicles are more expensive than gasoline vehicles. However, due to the rapid growth of downstream demand, the negative effects of rising prices on demand were partially offset. If the commodity market does not fluctuate more sharply, the new energy vehicle market can be expected to prosper this year.