On March 12, the monthly data of power batteries in February was released. From the overall point of view, there are the following characteristics:
1) At the beginning of 2022, the first two months of power battery production reached 61.46GWh, equivalent to 73.6% of the whole year of 2020 (83.42GWh) and 23.9% of 2021 (219.68GWh). Continuing to grow at this rate, it is expected to hit the 400-450GWh production this year.
2) Lithium iron phosphate production (20.1 GWh), which is nearly twice the output of ternary batteries (11.6 GWh). Corresponding to the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate in February is only 7.8GWh, the follow-up lithium iron phosphate will have a larger scale of use, and a considerable part will go abroad with the export model, and some of it will be directly supplied to foreign countries by sea.
3) The demand for pure electric passenger cars has become the most important pillar of power batteries, but due to rising costs, plug-in hybrids usher in good opportunities. This will be a very clear trend for 2022. The demand for commercial vehicles has shrunk greatly, and it is expected that there will be a big breakthrough in the replacement of heavy trucks in the second half of the year.
4) In the second half of the year, more battery companies will start to do lithium iron phosphate. In addition, the ningde era and BYD in the lithium iron phosphate market distance will be getting closer and closer.
[This article benefits: The data in this article comes from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, friends who want to get the full version of the institution's February report PPT, you can pay attention to the "Electric Vehicle Observer" public account, and reply to the "February battery" in the public account dialog box; or, forward this article to the circle of friends or three WeChat groups, screenshots as evidence, you can ask for the original link of PPT from the small editor of the electric view (WeChat: ev_observer)
01
Output: Lithium iron phosphate is more stocked
Power battery production in February was 31.8GWh, up 236.2% year-on-year and 7.1% month-on-month.
There is a Spring Festival holiday in February, and power battery production still exceeds the historical peak - 31.63GWh in December last year. Such a high output means that in the planning of battery manufacturers, the demand for 2022 is very high, so the battery will be made at the beginning of the year. Especially under the condition of high raw material prices, even if it is made into inventory, it has a good return.
Figure 1 Power battery production maintains high prosperity in February 2022 (the picture can be enlarged to view, the same below)
From the perspective of the output of different types of batteries: ternary battery production of 11.6GWh, currently accounted for only 36.6% - although the year-on-year increase of 127.2%. Looking back at May 2021, ternary production was surpassed by lithium iron phosphate, and since then the gap between the two sides has been widening. At present, the output of ternary batteries is only about half of the iron lithium.
Fig. 2 Lithium iron phosphate pressed ternary production
The output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.1GWh, accounting for 63.1% of the total output, an increase of 364.1% year-on-year.
The growth rate of these two types of batteries also objectively reflects the direction of battery selection for the updated models in 2021.
It is worth noting that the production of lithium iron phosphate in February was 20.1GWh, and the installed capacity was only 7.8GWh. The difference between the two data is getting wider and wider. Reasonable explanations mainly include:
1) Export models are used more. According to the China Automobile Association, 56,000 units were exported in January and 48,000 units in February, totaling 104,000 units. If calculated according to 60kWh/vehicle, there are about 6GWh (3GWh per month).
2) Lithium iron phosphate is growing rapidly in commercial vehicle applications worldwide, and a part of lithium iron phosphate is used for export;
3) The last one is inventory: the batteries produced in January and February, from the finished product warehouse of the battery manufacturer to the warehouse of each car company, and then complete the loading, it takes 30-45 days. It is expected that the car companies with relatively high production will complete the reserves in advance. Since the battery is still relatively scarce in 2022, it is expected that this part of the car company will buy the battery first and load the car according to the demand behind.
From January to February 2022, the output of power batteries accumulated 61.4GWh, an increase of 185.7% year-on-year. Among them, the output of ternary batteries was 22.5GWh, accounting for 36.6% of the total output, an increase of 87.6% year-on-year; lithium iron phosphate batteries were 38.8GWh, accounting for 63.2% of the total output, an increase of 308.2% year-on-year.
In 2022, it is still the era dominated by lithium iron phosphate, and the high growth of power batteries will not reduce the demand for resources in the short term.
02
Installed capacity: Iron lithium and ternary distance did not open
In February, the loading volume of power batteries was 13.7GWh, an increase of 145.1% year-on-year and a decrease of 15.5% month-on-month.
Although the installed capacity has increased significantly year-on-year, the installed capacity has increased significantly compared with the peak - 26.22GWh in December last year, which is about half the difference. This is a very different point from the production data.
Figure 3 The installed capacity in February 2022 is also running at a high level
From the perspective of different battery types:
Ternary battery loading volume was 5.8GWh, an increase of 75.6% year-on-year and a decrease of 19.9% month-on-month;
Lithium iron phosphate battery loading volume was 7.8GWh, an increase of 247.3% year-on-year and a decrease of 12.3% month-on-month.
At the loading end, lithium iron phosphate surpassed ternary batteries in July last year, but overall, in 2022, at the loading end, the difference between the two is only about 2GWh, and the difference between the two in terms of output is much smaller.
From the perspective of the two months in 2022, the battery loading volume is 29.9GWh, the ternary battery is 13.1GWh, accounting for 43.8% of the total installed vehicle volume, and the lithium iron phosphate is 16.7GWh, accounting for 55.9% of the total installed vehicle volume, and the difference between the two has not been opened.
Will the follow-up be pulled? not necessarily.
With the high price of lithium carbonate, the price difference between the two is narrowing (lithium iron phosphate generally uses lithium carbonate as the source of the cathode material, while ternary generally uses lithium hydroxide as the source of the cathode material). Overall, mid-to-high-end models do not care about this price difference; while low-end models are still very sensitive to price even if they use lithium iron phosphate. We need to keep watching this.
Figure 4 Review of domestic installed capacity
03
Demand decomposition: Plug and mix momentum
From a longer perspective, the demand for power batteries has been changing.
Let's break it down to see:
In 2017, the majority of the demand for power batteries was buses and special vehicles, which is the era of lithium iron phosphate;
In 2018, the proportion of pure electric passenger cars is increasing, and Sanyuan has begun to adopt a large number of them;
In 2019, buses and special vehicles have gradually begun to shrink, and pure electric passenger cars have become the main demand side;
In 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, pure electric passenger cars have become a high-growth demand;
From 2021 to 2022, the demand for commercial vehicles has become a small head, and by February, the installed capacity of plug-in hybrid power batteries has exceeded that of special vehicles and buses combined.
From the cost side, the current plug-in hybrid passenger car is very attractive in the face of high oil prices. In 2022, demand for plug-in hybrid passenger cars will be very strong.
In 2022, the demand for power batteries in buses may continue to decline, and the increase in commercial vehicles is mainly focused on special vehicles, especially the previously described heavy trucks.
Figure 5 The change of the main body of domestic power battery demand in 2017-2022
04
The Matthew effect of battery suppliers
In the new energy vehicle market in February, only 35 power battery companies achieved car loading, and the concentration was further improved.
The top 3 and top 5 companies combined to 10.6GWh and 11.7GWh respectively, accounting for 77.7% and 85.4% of the total installed vehicles, respectively.
Figure 6 Comparison of domestic enterprise installed capacity from January to February
Judging from the situation of lithium iron phosphate, BYD's rapid increase has gradually narrowed the gap with the Ningde era. The second-tier battery companies, AVIC Lithium Battery, EWELL Lithium Energy, Hive Energy and Sunwoda are rapidly developing the supporting facilities of lithium iron phosphate. From the current technical direction, in 2022, these companies will also come up with a more optimized lithium iron phosphate battery solution to serve smaller car companies. These small car companies have borne higher price increases than leading car companies, and need to quickly switch and develop supply to cope with price increases.
Figure 7 Competition of lithium iron phosphate
On the side of Sanyuan, it is basically a monopoly in the Ningde era, followed by AVIC lithium battery.
It should be noted that as the installed capacity of ternary batteries in China gradually reaches a relatively stable state, there are not many enterprises in the follow-up in this field. Because the ternary battery is mainly assembled by high-end models, this second-tier car company has been working hard for many years and has not received particularly good results.
Figure 8 Competition for ternary batteries
05
brief summary
We do not yet know the overall macroeconomic impact on new energy vehicles in 2022. In the era of high oil prices, the shift in consumer choice is obvious. However, all the increase in material costs needs to be digested by car companies. In response to the pressure of price increases, car companies still need some time for the final consumer to share.
At present, battery companies, whether from the perspective of competition or supply, must carry out full horsepower production in the first few months and turn materials into batteries.
Overall, from the power battery industry data in February, battery companies are more confident than vehicle companies.
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