He was once called "the worst man of the year".
Source | Tianxia E-Commerce(ID:txws_txws)
Author | Yang Jie
Edit | Wu Lingwei
The new car-making force "Wei Xiaoli" finally gathered in Hong Kong stocks.
On March 10, NIO was officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with the stock code "9866". The opening price was HK$160, and ten minutes after the opening, the share price stretched more than 4.06%, and as of the close of the first day, the market value was HK$265.2 billion (about 214.3 billion yuan).
This is the fourth time that Li Bin, the 48-year-old founder, chairman and CEO of Weilai, has sounded the bell after the listing of Yiche Online in 2010, the Hong Kong stock listing of Yixin Group (spun off by Ecar.com) in 2017, and the listing of Weilai on the New York Stock Exchange in 2018. What is more special is that WEILAI adopts the method of introducing the listing, that is to say, it will not issue new shares, but the shareholders of the enterprise will apply for listing and trading their old shares, and from a certain level, it will no longer involve financing and will not dilute the interests of existing shareholders.
Isn't going public for money? As for the reasons for listing in Hong Kong, WEI responded to the media that it is to provide investors with more trading locations and more flexible trading hours, which will help introduce more investors. At the same time, the use of the introduction to the listing is because the company has sufficient cash reserves and no urgent financing needs in the short term.
In addition to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, NIO is also looking for other listing opportunities. At the same time as going to Hong Kong for listing, NIO has also submitted an application for a second listing in the form of an introduction to the main board of the Singapore Stock Exchange, and the specific listing date is under review.
Although Weilai said to the outside world, the listing has nothing to do with money. But it suffered multiple blows between 2019 and 2020: the suspension of the Shanghai factory, the spontaneous combustion of the ES8 leading to a large-scale recall of the same model, the departure of management, and the withdrawal of huge investments, all of which pushed WEILAI into a cash flow crisis. According to the prospectus, at the end of 2019, there were only 860 million cash and cash equivalents on its books. Since its listing, WEILAI has suffered long-term losses, until 2020, it turned a profit with a year-on-year increase of 107.8% to 16.25 billion yuan in revenue, and the more than 38 billion yuan of cash held by WEIlai in that year also returned to the pre-crisis level.
But finding money is still a long-term task for Weilai.
On the one hand, it is necessary to continuously invest in marketing and model, intelligent research and development, and continuous capital "blood transfusion" is more crucial for new force car companies, and Weilai needs more ammunition to catch up after the delivery volume is left behind; on the other hand, the former Hefei City took out 7 billion yuan to "save" Weilai, and the equivalent condition is that it will achieve revenue of 120 billion yuan in 2024, and complete the listing on the science and technology innovation board by 2025. Judging from THE TOTAL REVENUE OF WEILAI OF 26.235 BILLION IN THE FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2021, THIS TARGET IS STILL FAR AWAY.
01
Gradually lose the position of "Big Brother"?
In the middle of last year, Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile, which are also new car-making forces, have successively achieved "double listing" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
In contrast, the road to WEILAI listing is not so smooth. From the perspective of time, the time of WEIlai's "handing over the table" to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is earlier than Xiaopeng and Ideal. However, due to THE PROBLEMS OF WEILAI INVOLVING USER TRUST SHAREHOLDING, ITS LISTING HAS NOT BEEN APPROVED BY THE HONG KONG STOCK EXCHANGE. At the same time, as the earliest mass-produced new force car company, Weilai gradually lost its position as a bellwether.
In order to maintain the market head advantage, weilai's choice of introduction to listing this time is more like a helpless move after being blocked - the introduction of listing is more relaxed than that of ordinary listing.
The prospectus shows that automobile sales are still the majority of Weilai, contributing more than 90% to the overall revenue. According to data released by NIO, its three models on sale, ES8, ES6 and EC6, delivered a total of 6,131 new vehicles in February, up 9.9% year-on-year and down 36% month-on-month.
Source: NIO prospectus
Ideal cars, which have only one model of ideal ONE, delivered 8,414 new cars in February; Xiaopeng Motors delivered 6,225 units in February; and Nezha Cars delivered a total of 7,117 vehicles in February.
Since July 2021, NIO has shown a downward trend. In the case of ideal and Xiaopeng delivery volume both exceeded 8,000 vehicles, Weilai delivered only 7931 vehicles that month, ranking third; in August, Weilai's delivery volume fell out of the top three from the previous list.
Although it returned to the top of the new force delivery list in September, the delivery volume of Weilai has been suppressed by Ideal Car and Xiaopeng Car since then. In the disclosure documents of the Weilai Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in the whole year of 2021, WEILAI delivered a total of 91,429 vehicles, and Ideal and Xiaopeng delivered 90,491 vehicles and 98,155 vehicles respectively, ranking second among the three giants of new car-making forces.
The stability of the supply chain has become one of the biggest variables affecting the speed of WEILAI.
As early as last year, Weilai has been affected by the shortage of semiconductor chips, when a 20 yuan chip could be fried for 2800 yuan on the black market. In March last year, Weilai Hefei Jianghuai Automobile Plant stopped production for five days due to chip shortages. In August, the epidemic in Nanjing and Malaysia affected some of NIO's single suppliers, resulting in a decline in deliveries.
The new cars ET7 and ET5, which were released as early as last year, have not been delivered until this year. According to the prospectus, ET7 and ET5 are expected to be delivered in March and September 2022 respectively. Consumers' mentality of holding coins for purchase has also had a partial impact on sales.
In the long run, the deeper reason is that Weilai is positioned in the middle and high-end, and the pricing is concentrated in about 300,000-400,000, while the Xiaopeng P5 is priced at about 160,000-220,000, and Nezha is generally priced at 100,000. Compared with the new forces such as Ideal and Xiaopeng, WEILAI has always lacked a volume of models to achieve scale effects and reduce costs.
Image source Weilai official website
NIO is catching up by releasing more models and taking the road of sinking. According to the "LatePost" report, in September last year, WEILAI began to vigorously recruit front-line Fellow (sales) and research and development personnel, some of whom will be responsible for the establishment of low-end brands, and Weilai will also increase the rhythm of one new car a year to three. Especially after the delivery of ET7 and ET5, its sales situation this year may improve slightly.
02
Gamble on the power exchange business
Chip shortages, raw material problems, and production line constraints are common problems faced by new car-making forces. In addition to the common obstacles, NIO is different from several others: layout power exchange and BaaS (battery rental service) business.
Weilai's layout of the electricity exchange and rental business is a money-burning move that consumers like but short-term investors are not optimistic about.
The biggest concern of consumers buying electric vehicles is that the car is out of power, what to do? In the fast charging station, it generally takes 1 hour to fill an electric car, while refueling only takes 5 minutes, not to mention that not every place can find a fast charging station, and this energy replenishment anxiety always affects the willingness of consumers to buy electric vehicles.
The original intention of Weilai's introduction of the power exchange mode is to make the electric vehicle energy replenishment method as convenient as the fuel vehicle: the battery can be easily removed and replaced like an old mobile phone, and can be replenished at any time. Change the power for three minutes and drive hundreds of miles.
According to Weilai, its power exchange model is the first in the industry, and it is also one of the few manufacturers in the car company to provide power exchange methods. In the disclosure documents of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the financial reports of previous quarters, its power exchange business has been frequently mentioned.
Tesla also launched its own power exchange service, but after the actual operation, it was stopped due to problems such as different models could not be adapted and low operational efficiency.
The power exchange mode provides enough convenience for the owner to alleviate a lot of energy anxiety. Like NIO Life, NIO's first profitable "peripheral business", the power replacement business is also regarded by car owners as one of THE core competitiveness of NIO.
But for enterprises and investors, the construction of power stations requires huge capital investment, and the degree of burning money is huge. It is understood that the cost of substations is as high as 4 million yuan / seat, and the prospectus shows that as of December 31, 2021, NIO has deployed 777 substations in urban areas and highways in 183 cities in China. The design of Weilai's power station has not yet been standardized, and it only supports its own models. It is difficult to recover the high construction costs of the replacement power station from the replacement revenue.
Previously, Weilai said it planned to build more than 4,000 substations by the end of 2025. At present, most of the existing substations in Weilai are distributed in first- and second-tier cities, and if you want to go out of the high-line market, you still have to spend a huge amount of money in the future of self-built replacement power stations.
"To calculate small accounts, but also to calculate large accounts, changing power stations is a typical example of big accounts." Li Bin regards the power exchange mode as one of the keys to a good user experience, and often says this to the team.
Looking at the new forces of car manufacturing, li bin, He Xiaopeng, Li Xiang and other founders are like the role of product managers, and the products implement the personal ideas of the founders. In Weilai, this line of thinking is more thorough. In Li Bin's imagination, Weilai should be the "Starbucks of the car industry", not only selling cars, but also selling space and aesthetics, becoming a lifestyle company. He likes to send red envelopes to car owners online and frequently appears in WEILAI's offline activities. Many car owners praise Li Bin's personality charm, but this may not necessarily support his ideal of changing power stations.
03
Li Bin bravely broke into the new battlefield
On the one hand, it is deeply in the predicament of delivery volume, the power exchange model is not optimistic, and the ultimate service leads to increased investment... Weilai's situation does not seem so optimistic.
On the other hand, going to Norway, developing mobile phone business, sinking the market... Weilai is constantly opening up a second battlefield.
In addition to the main business, what will become the future of WEILAI?
Since its inception, Li Bin has hoped to build a global brand. In September 2021, NIO started delivery in Norway, its first overseas stop. Xiaopeng and Aichi, who went to sea first, adopted the agency model, but Weilai adopted the same direct operation model as in Norway and built a complete operating system. On a conference call in early November, Li Bin revealed a statistic: in the Norwegian market, more than a quarter of users who have test-driven WEILAI will order a car, and all aspects of the work have met expectations.
On September 30, 2021, NIO ES8 was listed in Norway and started user delivery
But in less familiar areas, how Weilai adapts to different cultures and provides the ultimate service needs to be answered.
At the same time, Li Bin took a fancy to the new market of mobile phones. According to media reports, in February this year, Weilai intends to enter the mobile phone industry, and the project is currently in the initial stage of research, and recruits personnel for this purpose. Weilai basically rules out the possibility of OEM, and the high probability is to make a mobile phone by itself.
The mobile phone industry, which has been declining continuously since 2018, has long been crowded into a red sea. From 2018 to 2021, domestic purchases slipped from 452 million units to 310 million units, which means that mobile phone manufacturers have to compete for 300 million people changing machines every year. Homogeneous products and less desirable economic conditions have also extended the replacement cycle of consumers from 24 months to 27 months. In short, mobile phones don't seem like a good business anymore.
But Weilai's mobile phone business is more like an extension of this "customer enterprise": car-machine interaction, so that car owners who are keen to participate in Weilai's offline activities can place another order for their "faith". Compared with traditional car companies such as Geely, Weilai's new car companies born out of the Internet era have great advantages in entering the mobile phone market. I just don't know whether the community culture that Li Bin is proud of can be played in the field of mobile phones.
In the final analysis, whether it is going to the sea, the mobile phone business, or the capital increase in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain, Li Bin needs self-hematopoiesis and capital input to win this time race.
After the success of the second listing in Hong Kong, what else can Li Bin do to make Weilai have a better future?