The two areas of PHEV and HEV, although not so conspicuous in China, do have great opportunities to enter 2022. From the current power balance type and power type battery supply, it has become a long-term observable business. From the risk data, I see some changes -
1) The Ningde era was the absolute leader in the past 2017-2020 H1, but as the Ashkenazi Volkswagen and BMW began to turn to pure electricity, the supply of plug-in hybrids was not much. The ideal supply is because of the BEV small battery (energy battery) when the extended range is used, and the Fordy below BYD begins to be massively massive.
2) From the perspective of ternary lithium and iron lithium, iron lithium replacement of ternary lithium has just begun, because the difference in power is not large, and the battery power of PHE models is generally relatively small, and the cost price difference is not large. The logic of this ternary lithium being replaced is not strong.
3) From the perspective of cruising range, the pure electric endurance of the compliant model 50-60km is actually not high, and the current market tries to provide users with a plug-in model of more than 80 kilometers and a pure electric endurance of more than 100 kilometers, so that users can really use the PHEV as a range extender model to open.
Figure 1 PhEV pure electric mileage classification
Part 1: Pure electric range and battery
The supply of pure electric mileage of PHEV models, such as BYD's current plug-in and hybrid models, is done around more than 100 kilometers, which is also the strategy of manufacturers in configuring different mileage corresponding to different prices, giving priority to the introduction of higher-priced models to improve profitability.
If we decompose this trend into different brands, such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz luxury cars, the pure electric endurance of more than 80 kilometers of plug-in models is indeed standard. And the follow-up companies that do extended range models, such as Lantu, AITO and other models, are in this range.
Figure 2 Hierarchical supply of different endurances
The pure electric mileage corresponds to the battery level, which is currently divided into 8-10kWh, 10-15kWh, 15-20kWh, 20-30kWh and 30kWh+ different batteries, except for the last gear are special power balanced batteries.
Figure 3 Corresponding to the battery level
I deliberately made a table of by-DEVICE's current plug-in model battery level/type, endurance configuration/mileage, so that you can make a reference.
Table 1 BYD's battery supply pattern
Part 2: Power Battery Competitive Landscape and Suppliers
I remember that since 2019, the Ningde era has had doubts about the development of PHEV batteries. Because from an overseas point of view, the current large-scale supply of PHEV batteries is mainly SDI and SK, LG has jumped from PHEV to BEV-based pattern. With the wave of BYD DM-i in China, BYD started from iron lithium to make blade modules, and the main success point is actually that the whole vehicle "accommodates" this square flat (height designed to 110mm) battery arrangement.
Figure 4 PHEV battery suppliers in January 2022
At present, the most complete spectrum of DOMESTIC PHEV batteries, which is also being vigorously developed, is mainly the hive energy that cooperates with the Great Wall, and the next step is Geely and Lynk & Co.. I think the technology around the short blade with the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries still exists. The target price is 1kWh/1000 yuan, which means that the target around the low-cost version above is 8000-10000 yuan of battery cost.
Figure 5 Lithium iron and ternary supply
With the popularity of DHT, domestic companies that did hybridization (not interpolation) before have also begun to try, and the model price band is mainly around the two ranges of 100,000-150,000 yuan and 15-200,000 yuan.
brief summary:
The power battery industry is actually too cruel, both to make rapid progress, but also to wait for the determination and decision-making of the vehicle company, patience is necessary. To find your own differentiated development path is to keep making choices.
Figure | network and related screenshots
About author:Zhu Yulong, senior electric vehicle three-electric system and automotive electronics engineer, author of "Automotive Electronics Hardware Design".
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