Introduction: At the beginning of 2022, Dongfeng Motor Group set the best data since 2017; but from the retail sales data, it may not be so optimistic. When will Lantu, which has invested heavily in the development of the group, be able to support the wall?
On February 11, Dongfeng Group announced the production and sales data for January. The automotive group has set a sales target of 3.471 million units in 2022, up 25% from 2021. Passenger car sales targets 2.894 million units, up 28% year-on-year, and commercial vehicle sales target 577,000 units, up 10% year-on-year.
Auto K Line once pointed out at the end of the year that Dongfeng Motor Group's target sales in 2022 will exceed the historical best (3.28 million units in 2017). At the beginning of the new year, did the group fire its first shots?
According to the data, Dongfeng Motor Group's production and sales in January were 278,300 units and 303,600 units, up 0.51% and 10.01% respectively from 2021. From the perspective of sales alone, it exceeded 300,000 vehicles in January, which is its best result in the same period since 2017, and it has a strong and favorable start.
However, in terms of segments, Dongfeng Motor Group sold 262,900 passenger cars in January, up 18.9% year-on-year, while commercial vehicles sold only 40,700 units, a sharp decrease of 25.9% year-on-year. According to Dongfeng Motor Group's sales target, the average monthly sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles must reach 241,200 units and 48,000 units, respectively. This means that in January, the passenger car sector "played an extraordinary role", while the commercial vehicle sector "dragged its legs".
The author believes that although Dongfeng Motor Group's growth rate of commercial vehicles in 2022 is much lower than that of passenger cars, the performance of the commercial vehicle sector in the first month of almost a full-scale collapse and a year-on-year decline of more than a quarter is still a frown. After all, the revenue-generating capabilities of the commercial vehicle sector and the importance of Dongfeng Motor Group are tacitly acknowledged.
On February 14, the first trading day after the group disclosed sales, the share price of Dongfeng Group fell by 3%.
1) Dongfeng Nissan: "There is another Qiankun" in retail sales data
According to the announcement disclosure data (that is, manufacturers' wholesale sales data), in January, Dongfeng Nissan (including Venucia) sold 126,300 units, up 4.89% year-on-year. However, according to the retail data released by Nissan China, 100,000 japanese brands retailed 100,000 vehicles, Venucia brand retailed 10,000 vehicles, and the total number of dual brands was 110,000 units, which not only had a gap of 16,300 vehicles between the wholesale data, thus forming channel inventory; it also decreased by 11.3% compared with January 2021; it also decreased by 3% compared with December 2021.
It seems that the epidemic, lack of core and lack of materials that Nissan has repeatedly blamed can no longer be the main factor affecting sales.
It is also worth mentioning that Nissan China has merged Nissan, Venucia and Infiniti into one, with a total sales volume of 111,300 vehicles; it is not difficult to deduce that Infiniti only retailed 1,307 vehicles in January, and the prospects are worrying.
Specific to the model, in January, Nissan's seventh-generation Tianlai retail sold 18,739 vehicles, an increase of 19.1% year-on-year, setting a record for the best sales in January of the calendar year, but down 6% from December 2021; Xuanyi series sold 49,982 units, although it decreased year-on-year, but in the January car retail sales ranking of the Association, Xuanyi re-defended.
Dongfeng Nissan's SUV division sold a total of 27,702 units in January, of which Nissan Qashqai retailed 20,486 units, an increase of 25.4% year-on-year, the best sales result in January, while X-Jun's retail performance was once again hidden.
Models that once easily sold tens of thousands or even 20,000 a month can now only hover up and down 3,000 vehicles, which is indeed depressed, but who can blame?
The price is quite "arrogant" to some extent, overestimating the acceptance of the "three-cylinder machine" by Chinese consumers, I am afraid that whether it is the new Qijun in July last year, or the Qijun Glory revived by Zhengzhou Nissan in December, I am afraid that it will be difficult to pull the Qijun back to the peak moment.
Judging from the announcement data, Zhengzhou Nissan's january passenger car production and sales are only more than 1,000, and it also includes Tuda, so the situation of Qijun Glory can be imagined. New bottles of old wine may also fool some consumers, but old bottles of old wine are a bit underestimating the IQ of Chinese consumers.
For Dongfeng Nissan, this step is a dangerous move with profound impact.
2) Dongfeng Honda: "Monthly sales over 10,000" in the mixed ups and downs
According to the data disclosed in the announcement, Dongfeng Honda sold 77,400 vehicles in January, up 7.3% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month, and also very brilliant in the january data performance of the calendar year.
However, from the terminal data, according to Honda China's disclosure, Dongfeng Honda retailed 66,700 vehicles in January, a sharp drop of 26% year-on-year, almost falling out of the top 15 of the sales list of manufacturers in the caliber of the association, and it is the largest decline in the list; however, it is gratifying that CR-V, Civic, XR-V and Yingshipai "monthly sales exceed 10,000".
Referring to past data, for CR-V and Civic, monthly sales of more than 10,000 may not be worthy of "pride". Taking cr-V as an example, according to the data of the Association, its january sales were 17,615 units, down 39.7% from 29,208 units in January 2021, ranking 10th on the list; the model also fell by 13.7% compared with 20,424 units in December last year.
At the same time, the Honda Civic failed to make the list, which was originally a model with a monthly sales of 30,000 vehicles.
However, for Dongfeng Honda's high-end model Yingshipai, although it is not yet able to compete with the brother model Accord, it is also very gratifying that the monthly sales of more than 10,000 are also very gratifying.
Statistics from the Association show that in January this year, Japanese cars and SUVs fell by 12.6% and 17.8% respectively; while the market share of four Japanese car companies, Dongfeng Nissan, GAC Toyota, GAC Honda and Dongfeng Honda, also fell 6.6 percentage points from the previous month to 16.6%.
Therefore, judging from the group's sales announcement, although Dongfeng Nissan and Dongfeng Honda achieved positive year-on-year sales growth in January, the growth rate was not as good as the group's market; at the same time, the retail data performance of some of the main models of the two Japanese car companies is worth paying attention to.
Auto K line believes that compared with Nissan, Honda brand power is obviously stronger, at present, Dongfeng Honda is beginning to integrate the plant of DPCA, and the future production capacity may have a large room for growth.
3) DPCA: The year of establishment may face changes
In January, DPCA sold 13,000 units, an increase of 85% year-on-year, and for the fourth consecutive month since the implementation of the revival plan, it sold more than 10,000 units and successfully climbed the 10,000-unit ladder.
2022 marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of DPCA. In the year of its establishment, DPCA will advance towards a new goal in returning to a new starting point of 100,000 vehicles. Although DPCA has not yet announced its annual target, from the past results of 50,000 vehicles in 2020 and 100,000 vehicles in 2021, the sales of DPCA automobiles this year may reach 150,000 vehicles.
However, the recent news that the two brands of Dongfeng Peugeot and Citroen may "fly alone" has brought uncertainty to DPCA, which is difficult to make steady progress. On March 1, the Stellantis Group will be holding a long-term strategic development plan, at which time we may be able to get more details about the two Legal brands.
According to the data of the Association, in January, the share of French brands increased by 0.1 percentage points against the background of the decline in the retail share of Japanese, German and American brands. The recovery of French brands is very difficult, and I hope that the "separation" will not once again plunge DPCA into a quagmire.
4) Dongfeng autonomy: fuel vehicles perform well, Lantu does not meet expectations
In January, Dongfeng's main self-owned brands Dongfeng Fengxing and Fengshen sold 17,000 units and 18,000 units respectively, up 48.25% and 189.11% year-on-year, respectively; both achieved positive growth month-on-month; if these two brands can maintain monthly sales of more than 10,000 units in 2022, it will add a lot of color to Dongfeng Motor Group.
In the independent new energy sector, Dongfeng Group's high-end brand Lantu Automobile delivered 1553 vehicles in January, down 53% from December last year, a bit higher than other new forces; while its January production reached 3435 vehicles, which was obviously less than expected. In the face of the delivery target of 46,000 vehicles, Lantu Automobile has to deliver more than 3,800 vehicles per month to have hope.
On February 17, Landu Automobile announced its official entry into the European market, but the author believes that as a new brand, it may be more critical to first consolidate the domestic market. In the face of the "comrade-in-arms" ideal car monthly delivery of more than 10,000 consecutively, the latecomer Lantu Automobile must step up its efforts; it can shoulder the mission of Dongfeng Company's new energy transformation and brand upwards.
Ironically, on February 20, in the official media of Dongfeng Group, "Dongfeng Toutiao", an article titled "Dongfeng Company's new energy vehicle sales in January were successful!" In the tweet, 7 independent and joint venture companies are in the article, but dongfeng Lantu does not appear...
5) Write at the end
In any case, the sales volume in January 2022 exceeded 300,000 units, comprehensively surpassing the monthly sales performance of 2021, and Dongfeng Motor Group's "opening red" is worthy of recognition, especially the sales of DPCA automobile and autonomous passenger cars have increased by leaps and bounds.
However, the loosening of sales of the main models of the Japanese joint venture retail end, the cold landing of Lantu, and the internal adjustment of the dual brands of Dongfeng Dongfeng Motor Group in 2022 have brought a trace of uncertainty to Dongfeng Motor Group's sales target of "Zhang Crazy".
Needless to say, sales defend dignity and we will continue to pay attention to you.