Plug-in and hybrid vehicles are two areas, although not so conspicuous in China, but there are indeed great opportunities in 2022. Therefore, the current supply of power balance and power batteries has become a long-term observable business.
From the insurance data, I saw some changes:
(1) The Ningde era was the absolute leader in the past 2017-2020 H1, but as the Ashkenazi Volkswagen and BMW began to turn to pure electricity, the supply of plug-in hybrids was not much. The ideal supply is BEV's small battery (energy-based battery) when the extended range is used; in contrast, BYD's Fordy battery began to be massively massive.
(2) From the perspective of the dispute between the ternary and iron lithium markets, the trend of iron lithium replacing ternary has just begun. Because the difference in electricity is not large, and the plug-in power is generally relatively small, the cost difference is not large. The logic of this ternary substitution is not strong.
(3) From the perspective of cruising range, 50-60km compliant models are actually not high, the current market tries to supply users with more than 80 kilometers, or even more than 100 kilometers of models, so that users really try to take PHEV as an increase in range to open.
Figure 1. Classification of mileage
Part 1 Range and battery
From the perspective of the supply direction of the cruising range, taking BYD as an example, the current supply of models is around more than 100 kilometers of models, which is also the manufacturer's priority in the allocation of different cruising ranges and different prices, giving priority to the sale of expensive models to improve profitability.
For this trend, if we break it down by different brands, we will find that luxury cars like BMW and Mercedes-Benz have a range of more than 80 kilometers is indeed standard. And the follow-up range of increases, such as Lantu, AITO and other models, are in this range.
Figure 2. Tiered supply of different endurances
According to the mileage division, it can currently be divided into 8-10kwh, 10-15kwh, 15-20kwh and 20-30kwh and 30kwh+ different battery types, except for the last gear are specialized power balanced batteries.
Figure 3. Corresponding battery level
I deliberately made a table of BYD's current battery and battery life configuration and battery life, which can be used as a reference.
Table 1. BYD's battery supply pattern
Part 2 Competitive Landscape and Suppliers
I remember that since 2019, the Ningde era has had doubts about the development of PHEV batteries. Because overseas, the current large-scale production of PHEV cells is mainly SDI and SK, LG has jumped from PHEV to BEV-based pattern. With the wave of BYD DM-i in China, BYD started from iron lithium to make blade modules, and the main success point was actually that the whole vehicle layout accepted this square flat (height designed to 110mm) arrangement.
Figure 4. PhEV battery supplier in January 2022
At present, the most complete spectrum of DOMESTIC PHEV batteries and still being vigorously developed, mainly with the Great Wall to cooperate with the hive energy, the next step will be installed on Geely and Lynk & Co.
I think the technology around the short blade is still there with the need for lithium iron phosphate. The target price is 1kwh1000 pieces, which means that the above low-cost version targets 8000-10,000 battery costs to start.
Figure 5. Different OEMs on the choice of iron lithium and ternary
Finally, let's take a look at HEV hybridization: with the popularity of DHT, domestic companies that do unplugged hybrids have also begun to do a little. The price also revolves around the two ranges of 10-150,000 and 15-200,000, in the case of a small cost difference, it is to give users one more choice.
Figure 6. The number of HEVs of different car companies
Summary: The power battery industry is actually too cruel, both to make rapid progress and wait for the determination of the vehicle company, patience is necessary. To find your own differentiated development path is to keep making choices.